Trey Lance vs. Sam Darnold – The 3 factors that will decide 49ers' QB2 battle
Let battle commence. The most fascinating competition in training camp for the 49ers is not even one for a starting job, at least not if Brock Purdy is healthy for Week 1. Two former third overall picks, Trey Lance and Sam Darnold are set to compete for the right to be backup quarterback to Purdy. […]
Let battle commence.
The most fascinating competition in training camp for the 49ers is not even one for a starting job, at least not if Brock Purdy is healthy for Week 1.
Two former third overall picks, Trey Lance and Sam Darnold are set to compete for the right to be backup quarterback to Purdy.
However, if Purdy does not recover in time from elbow surgery, the winner of this fight would be starting Week 1. The unknown surrounding the man who catapulted himself to QB1 after his stunning emergence late last season highlights the importance of the battle between Lance and Darnold.
For Lance, it is perhaps the last chance to salvage his 49ers career, injury having seen him gone from top pick and future of the franchise in 2021 to a potential third-stringer and trade candidate. Darnold, meanwhile, will be out to vindicate members of the football cognoscenti who believe he could thrive under Kyle Shanahan and finally prove he can be a productive long-term starter at the highest level.
The 49ers will obviously hope Purdy is soon back on the field and back at his best, but in Lance and Darnold they feel they have two excellent insurance policies.
Which of the backups will prevail in the race to be next in the pecking order and have at least a shot of starting Week 1? There are three main factors that will decide the answer to that question.
Trey Lance vs. Sam Darnold – The 3 factors that will decide 49ers' QB2 battle
The deep ball
Though Shanahan drafted Lance in part because of what he can do with his legs, his mobility is unlikely to be a key element in this competition given Darnold has also shown he can make things happen on the ground in a pinch.
But the deep ball, another trait of Lance’s that impressed the 49ers, could well swing the decision of who becomes QB2.
Last season, Darnold excelled throwing the deep ball as the Panthers got hot with him at quarterback down the stretch. His completion percentage of 54.5 on throws of 15 air yards in 2022 is the third best of any quarterback in the last two seasons, per Sports Info Solutions. Darnold had 33 attempts of that distance and averaged 0.58 Expected Points Added per attempt.
But that followed a 2021 season in which he struggled for efficiency and accuracy going downfield over a larger sample size. Two seasons ago, Darnold completed just 29.2 percent of his attempts traveling 15 or more yards in the air. He averaged minus 0.27 EPA per attempt on 66 such throws.
Playing only in relief of an injured Jimmy Garoppolo, Lance also largely struggled with the deep ball that year. He completed only six of his 20 attempts of that distance, though his EPA per attempt (minus 0.08) was better than that of Darnold.
The reason for that gap in efficiency is explosive plays. Darnold threw two touchdowns on those deep passes, Lance threw the same amount despite attempting such throws fewer than a third of the time. Lance averaged 38.1 yards on those six completions two years ago, while Darnold averaged 27.57 on his 19.
San Francisco will want to see much improved accuracy from Lance at all levels of the field, but the numbers – albeit over different sample sizes – point to him being a much more explosive downfield thrower than Darnold. Should that prove the case in camp, it may give Lance a significant edge.
Decisiveness
One of the most impressive aspects of Purdy’s success last season was the decisiveness he showed in getting rid of the ball.
Though his average time to throw of 2.84 seconds, per NextGen Stats, was slower than that of Jimmy Garoppolo (2.66 seconds), a difference owing in part to Purdy’s greater proficiency for scrambling and creating on the move, the former seventh-round pick was consistently quick to process and decide where to go with the ball.
Purdy’s prowess in that area led Hall of Famer Steve Young to praise him for his use of ‘the force’, and the quarterback who wins the battle to be QB2 will need to replicate his speed of thought.
Shanahan greatly values decisiveness in his signal-callers. He wants quarterbacks who are going to read the field correctly and deliver the ball expediently regardless of whether his intended target is schemed into a wide-open window or is operating with little separation.
Purdy showed no hesitation attacking those tighter ‘NFL open’ windows. There is reason to doubt the ability of Lance and Darnold to do the same.
Last season, Darnold’s average time to throw was 3.24 seconds. Only Deshaun Watson (3.27) was slower to get rid of the ball. Lance’s time to throw was over three seconds in Weeks 4 and 5 of the 2021 season – when he played the second half against the Seahawks and started versus the Cardinals. It was nearly three and a half seconds in Week 17 when he started against the Texans.
That week, however, saw Lance post the highest quarterback rating of any in the league as he led the 49ers to victory.
Shanahan might accept a slightly slower release if it leads to greater playmaking and more downfield shots, but Lance and Darnold will both need to speed things up a little if they are to have a hope of winning the faith of their head coach as QB2.
And the quarterback who displays the confidence to release the ball quicker is likely to be the one that has a better handle on the offensive scheme.
Command of the offense
Any quarterback looking to win a backup role in the NFL obviously needs to understand the offense in which they are operating.
Having a strong command of the attack is especially important in Shanahan’s intricate offense with its heavy use of motion and significant emphasis on timing.
After having two seasons to immerse himself in the offense in the film room, Lance should have an excellent theoretical understanding of the scheme. The challenge for him will be putting that into practice following two seasons of limited time on the field.
Darnold has not previously played in the Shanahan offense, but his five years experience in the league combined with its pre-eminence in the NFL means he likely already had at least a decent knowledge of the attack when he signed with the Niners in free agency. He will have had the opportunity to improve his grasp of the system in the months since.
Turning what he has digested into positive performances on the field will be critical as Darnold looks to beat out Lance for the primary backup role. The quarterback who looks most at ease running things in practice is likely to be the man who will start the season as Purdy’s immediate deputy.
It will be some time before we have a clear idea of who the frontrunner is in this battle, the outcome of which has substantial consequences for the immediate and long-term future of the 49ers under center.
Featured Image Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
