D.K. Metcalf's big-play ability lands him in top 10 of ESPN poll
The production hasn't always been there for D.K. Metcalf in his NFL career, but when he's on his game there are few receivers who can match him for the highs he can deliver, and that big-play threat has him solidified among the elite at wideout in the minds of those inside the league. For the […]
The production hasn't always been there for D.K. Metcalf in his NFL career, but when he's on his game there are few receivers who can match him for the highs he can deliver, and that big-play threat has him solidified among the elite at wideout in the minds of those inside the league.
For the second year running, Metcalf landed on the ESPN list of the league's top 10 wide receivers, compiled through polling NFL executives, coaches, scouts and players.
Having ranked 10th last year, Metcalf jumped two spots to number eight.
That leap followed a second 1,000-yard campaign in four seasons for the 2019 second-round pick, who slipped out of the first round despite a phenomenal display of athleticism at the Combine that year.
The athleticism has translated superbly to the highest level, though the Seahawks may ideally like a little more consistency from Metcalf. As Jeremy Fowler noted in his writeup, Metcalf has only surpassed 1,050 yards once in his career. In 2020, he racked up 1,303 yards receiving in a remarkable second season that also saw him score 10 touchdowns.
His raw numbers from 2022, when he found the endzone only six times, were not as eye-catching and, after a season in which Tyler Lockett was 12th in DYAR (total value) and ninth in DVOA (per-play value), among wideouts, there is a case that Lockett is the receiver more deserving of a place in the top 10.
Lockett did receive votes, but they were not enough to even get him an honorable mention.
The argument for Metcalf over Lockett is that the former's physical profile makes him a much more intimidating matchup. Lockett is undoubtedly one of the league's premier route-runners, but, now 30, the physical skills he does possess may soon start to dwindle slightly.
Lockett is the more consistent receiver, but when the Seahawks need a big play to change the momentum, it is easier to throw up a go-ball to Metcalf rather than ask Lockett to use his technical prowess to create separation.
An NFC defensive coach was quoted by ESPN as saying:
"He has improved as a route runner — he doesn't run the entire route tree, but the routes he does run he's really good and can rip off a big play at any time. Really hard to tackle."
Arguably the best illustration of Metcalf's value came in last season's playoff loss to the 49ers, when he caught a 50-yard touchdown on a go-ball from Geno Smith to put Seattle ahead. The pass had a completion probability of just 24.2 percent, per NextGen Stats.
Metcalf's speed allows him to regularly get open downfield while his hulking frame and large catch radius gives quarterbacks like Geno Smith confidence to attempts throws on which the odds are not even 50-50. He finished the 2022 regular season with 9.6 receptions over expectation, the third-most in the league.
There are more complete receivers than Metcalf, but few can claim to possess such a fearsome athletic mix. Playing with a quarterback in Smith who was deadly accurate last year and on an offense that added the top receiver in the draft, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, to its ranks, Metcalf is operating in an environment in which he can grow more impactful in the coming years.
Metcalf doesn't have everything you traditionally look for in a receiver, but he has physical attributes that are hard to find. The way he utilizes those gifts makes him worthy of a place in the top 10, and he may be in an even higher spot if a loaded Seahawks offense continues its upward trajectory in 2023.
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Featured Image Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
