The Seattle Seahawks are dominating this season, sitting at 9-3 and fighting for the top spot in the NFC West along with the 9-3 Los Angeles Rams. Seattle is coming off an impressive defensive performance against the Minnesota Vikings, in which the team had its first shutout victory in a decade.

While quarterback Sam Darnold didn’t light the world on fire with his performance, going 14-for-26 with 128 yards and no turnovers, it was the Seahawks’ defense that was once again at the forefront in the victory.

Ahead of the Week 14 matchup, Seahawks fans have to love the latest development from DVOA, which released some updated playoff predictions with the Seahawks at the top of the conference, along with the Rams. The Seahawks are sitting at a 96% chance of making the postseason.

New York Times playoff machine gives fans hope

There’s still work to do for Seattle, which is looking like it’ll easily slide into the playoffs, but winning the division will be a whole other ballgame. The tight race in the NFC West is due to the Los Angeles Rams playing well, the remaining schedules for all teams, and the chance that the San Francisco 49ers come in and win the division, depending on how things shake out.

With five games remaining, the New York Times playoff machine should give fans hope, though. There are still some issues with the passing game, but the stout defense and Darnold’s bright moments have fans hopeful that they can stack a few wins down the stretch.

Currently, the calculator has the Seahawks with a 95% chance of making the playoffs, with a 22% chance of having the No. 1 seed, a 7% chance of hosting the wild card, a 66% chance of being a wild-card team, and a 5% chance of missing the playoffs entirely.

First and foremost, if the Seahawks simply win out all of their games, they’ll have a 99% chance of making the postseason, with a 98% chance of being the No. 1 seed, and a 2% chance of hosting the wild card. Even if they win out, there’s a slight chance they don’t retain the No. 1 seed.

Next, let’s assume the team goes 3-2 in their final five games, losing to the Rams and the Colts in this scenario. With a loss to the Rams, it becomes difficult to win the division, as Los Angeles defeated the Seahawks and now holds the tiebreaker. However, Seattle still has a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

In this scenario, there is less than a 1% chance of being the No. 1 seed, a 3% chance of hosting the wild card, and a 96% chance of being the wild card team in the postseason.

If the Seahawks go 2-3 in their last five games, that’s when things start to get a little nerve-racking for fans. As the calculator suggests, with losses to the Colts, Rams, and 49ers, Seattle is in a position where there’s an 88% chance of making the postseason. Less than a 1% chance to have the No. 1 seed or host a wild-card game, 87% chance of being the wild-card team, and a 13% chance of missing entirely.

And finally, the nuclear option. Let’s pretend for a second that the team goes 1-4 in the remaining five games, which obviously would be a nightmare scenario. Even then, though, the team wouldn’t technically be mathematically out of playoff contention. If the team were only to win against the Carolina Panthers, there would still be a 34% chance of making the postseason. Most likely, it wouldn’t cut it to go 1-4, but there would still be a chance Seattle could squeak in.

I won’t show you the stats, but just know that if they lose all five of their remaining games, they’re out of the playoffs, which is obvious at this point. Things will get interesting down the stretch if both the Rams and 49ers, along with the Seahawks, keep winning games. If the Rams lose a few and the 49ers and Seahawks keep winning, it could all come down to the final week of the season to determine the division winner.

Plenty of people wrote off the Seahawks before the season began, and now they’re sitting in a position where winning the division and potentially stealing the No. 1 seed is possible.

If Seattle continues to lean on its defense and clean up some of the issues in the passing attack, there is a path for a special finish down the stretch. The numbers suggest the Seahawks control their own fate, and with five games left, every snap will matter.

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