Buccaneers favorites to land one the top quarterbacks in free agency
The Derek Carr-Las Vegas Raiders saga is almost over, which means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now have a very realistic shot to sign the four-time Pro Bowler. And according to Bookies.com, the Buccaneers are the odds-on favorites to do just that. Per Bookies, the Buccaneers are the favorites at +250, which leads the NFL. Their […]
The Derek Carr-Las Vegas Raiders saga is almost over, which means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now have a very realistic shot to sign the four-time Pro Bowler.
And according to Bookies.com, the Buccaneers are the odds-on favorites to do just that.
Per Bookies, the Buccaneers are the favorites at +250, which leads the NFL. Their NFC South counterparts, the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints, have the second- and third-best odds at +300 and +400, respectively.
Signing Carr would immediately make the Buccaneers favorites to win the NFC South, primarily because of the downtrodden state of the division. Tampa Bay wouldn't have been able to land Carr in a trade, but, things changed once the news broke about his upcoming release.
Carr's latest contract with the Raiders is rooted in base salary, which is non-guaranteed money unless accelerators/guaranteed payout dates are involved. Carr's $32.9 million base salary in 2023 is the main reason the Raiders are able to release him without much penalty.
Releasing Carr obviously makes him a free agent, which is exactly what the Buccaneers need if they want a chance at scooping him up. A clean contractual slate means more control for the Buccaneers when it comes to how much they want to spend. It also means they can manipulate Carr's salary cap hit to where he doesn't really cost a whole lot in 2023.
Hypothetically, this is how the Buccaneers could do it: Let's say they sign him to a five-year, $150 million deal, for easy math's sake. $40 million of that can be converted into a signing bonus and then prorated over the life of the deal. That comes out to an automatic cap hit of $8 million for the next five years.
The Buccaneers can then make Carr's base salary the veteran minimum of $1.165 million, thus leading to a $9.165 million cap hit in 2023, which is very affordable.
Carr would be dumb to avoid a signing bonus in his next deal. Signing bonuses are paid out once pen hits paper and teams can't recoup the money unless something drastic happens. Carr was essentially on a year-to-year deal in Las Vegas and a signing bonus can elicit a "sunk cost mindset", which oftentimes creates a situation where teams are more likely to keep a player because of monetary reasons.
Either way, the Buccaneers have a legit shot at making this happen now that the Raiders plan on releasing Carr.
Featured image via Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
