Bucs shrunk in the moments that mattered most against Saints, and it’s probably going to cost them a playoff spot

The Bucs’ backs are officially against the wall after a disastrous loss to the Saints.

Evan Winter NFL Managing Editor
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Dec 7, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) is tackled by New Orleans Saints defensive tackle Bryan Bresee (90) during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium.
Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered the most embarrassing loss of the season on Sunday when they fell to the New Orleans Saints at home.

It was a dismal performance that casts a huge shadow over not just the Bucs’ NFC South aspirations but their playoff aspirations as a whole. Because the way the NFC playoff picture is shaping up, they won’t get in with six and likely more losses.

So much went wrong in this game, and while horrible weather played a big factor, the catalyst behind the loss was the Bucs offense’s inability to get the job done on fourth down and the defense’s inability to stop the Saints on third down late in the game.

The Bucs had to win these conversions, but simply couldn’t. Baker Mayfield and Co. went an abysmal 2-for-7 on fourth down that included just a 50% conversion rate on fourth and 1.

It ranged from a bad play call on Josh Grizzard’s strange decision to call a pitch on fourth and 1 in the pouring rain, to poor execution on Sean Tucker’s failed one-yard rushing attempt, to good defense via the Saints’ big hit on Chris Godwin Jr. that caused him to drop what would’ve been a four-yard reception on fourth and 2.

Either way, the Bucs offense couldn’t get it done, and these missed opportunities easily derailed multiple chances to put points on the board, as they were all right around the plus-45 mark on the field. The Bucs also went 3-of-13 on the day, marking just an abhorrent performance on the money downs.

The Bucs offense wasn’t alone in this regard, however. The defense certainly helped choke the game away late. It wasn’t a one-sided affair, by any means.

The Saints finished 5-of-11 on third down, but, as mentioned above, the key was Tampa Bay allowing them to convert 5-of-7 third downs in the second half. This included a streak of four consecutive third-down conversions that propped up Tyler Shough’s game-winning 13-yard touchdown. Third down conversions also keyed Charlie Smyth’s 30-yard field goal that tied the game at 17.

The Bucs couldn’t stop Juwan Johnson on third and 5, which played a big part in the 30-yard field goal. It got even worse on the Saints’ next drive, however, as Shough completed passes of 12 and 14 yards to convert a third and 10 and a third and 8. He ran in the 15-yard score immediately after the third-and-8 conversion.

Finally, the Bucs defense allowed the Saints to convert a third and 5 and a third and 6, as they attempted to run out the clock. It wasn’t until the final third and 11 that Todd Bowles’ crew finally got a stop.

The Buccaneers rose to the top of the NFC and were considered Super Bowl contenders by making clutch plays in the biggest moments through the first two months of the season, and now they’re a total shell of what they once were.

Sure, you always want your team to make plays in the big moments, but if you had to choose, you’d want said team to be doing it now, in December. Not in September.

As we know, this is a marathon. Not a sprint. And nothing is guaranteed in this league if you’re not playing your best football in December.

That’s exactly what the Bucs face as they head into a stretch that includes two games against the Carolina Panthers that will definitely decide how the season plays out.

And let it be known, now. If the Bucs don’t get this fixed, they’ll be sitting on the couch come Super Wild Card Weekend.