The NFL Combine is over and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a boatload of brand new information on dozens of prospects. Now, Jason Licht and Co. can really dial in on their top targets, while crossing others off the list.

The NFL draft is always a crapshoot when it comes to players available outside the top-10, even the top-5 in some years. For a team like the Buccaneers picking at 15 overall, it’s certainly not an easy projection.

So, what happens if there aren’t any players (in the Bucs eyes) worth taking? A trade-back is always an option and Licht is no stranger to moving back, or even out of, Round 1 (see: 2018, 2020, and 2022).

Just what exactly would a trade-back net, though, and just how far back is too far back? Those are obviously questions that require real-time situations in order to produce accurate answers, but we can still use history and math to get an idea.

We’ve already looked at trade-up scenarios in case the Buccaneers want to get aggressive in the first round of the draft, so now, let’s use that same process to dive into trade-back scenarios in case no one favored is around at the midway point of the 2026 NFL Draft.

What would a trade-back in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft look like for the Buccaneers?

1. Baltimore Ravens trade back with the Buffalo Bills from No. 16 to No. 22

• 2018 NFL Draft
• Ravens receive: No. 22 overall, No. 65 overall (3rd round)
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 331
• Bills receive: No. 16 overall, No. 154 overall (5th round)
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 317

This isn’t an exact apples-to-apples trade, as Ravens held the 16th pick in 2018, but swaying a pick or two away from No. 15 is an accurate enough barometer to still give us a good idea of what the Buccaneers could receive.

With that being said, it feels like Baltimore’s package is rather light when considering it moved back six spots in the first round and gave up a fifth-rounder, but the math actually says otherwise. A big reason why is pick No. 65 is the first pick of the third round, so it has its own unique value.

Regardless, personally, I’d try to make it a bit more favorable on my end if I were Licht.

2. Green Bay Packers move back 13 spots with the New Orleans Saints

• 2018 NFL Draft
• Packers receive: No. 27 overall, No. 147 overall (5th round), 2019 first-rounder
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 535
• Saints receive: No. 14 overall
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 325

The Packers received an absolute haul for the 14th overall pick, demonstrating just how badly the Saints wanted Marcus Davenport at the time.

If offered, it would make sense for the Buccaneers to take this deal, all day long. However, moving back to No. 28 overall would be quite the risk depending on who’s the top guys available on Licht’s board. Still, it’s a very plausible scenario considering the Houston Texans, like the Saints in 2018, are in win-now mode and could totally make an aggressive move to get the guy they think can help them take the next step in the postseason.

3. Minnesota Vikings trade back from No. 14 to No. 23 thanks to the New York Jets

• 2021 NFL Draft
• Vikings receive: No. 23 overall, Nos. 66 and 86 overall (3rd round)
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 370
• Jets receive: No. 14 overall, No. 143 overall (4th round)
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 340

This deal reminds me a lot of the Bucs-Bills trade back in 2018, when Licht traded back from No. 7 to No. 12 and received two second round picks on top of 12 overall.

The Vikings did have to give up a fourth-rounder in this deal, but to get the second pick in Round 3 and another pick 20 slots later is a package that should definitely move the needle for any competent GM and the math backs it up, as well.

4. New England Patriots move back to 17 after the Pittsburgh Steelers move up to 14

• 2023 NFL Draft
• Patriots receive: No. 17 overall, No. 120 overall (4th round)
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 321
• Steelers receive: No. 14 overall
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 325

This is the only trade-back where the math worked out in the favor of the advancing team, which goes to show just how beneficial this could be for the Buccaneers if they decide to pull the trigger. And even though the Patriots “lost” math-wise, it was only by a minor amount.

Either way, it’s a very good example of a small trade-back for the Bucs. Previously, it was several spots back or even a baker’s dozen, which are good barometers, but don’t cover the full spectrum, so to speak.

Snagging an extra fourth for only falling back three spots is a great deal. Like the above scenario, this reminds me a lot of when the Bucs spent a fourth to from 14 to 13 and select Tristan Wirfs in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Overall, a trade-back definitely makes sense if the right guy isn’t on the board at No. 15. Of course, the Buccaneers will need a dance partner, but it’s won’t be too difficult to wrangle one up, as we’ve seen in the past.

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