Bucs’ premature decision with Todd Bowles has blown up in their face, and both the present and future are in doubt
The Bucs head coach is struggling, again, and the Glazers should’ve had the foresight to wait and see what 2025 brought before handing him a three-year extension.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in full-blown disaster mode after blowing what should’ve been a relatively easy win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 14.
Yes, it was a divisional game, and teams should never feel 100% safe entering those due to the familiarity between opponents. However, this is a bad Saints team, and it’s a brand-new coaching staff – unlike Dennis Allen and Co., who had been in NOLA as long as Todd Bowles and Co. have been in Tampa Bay.
The weather was also a significant factor, but the Saints had to play in the elements, too, as Baker Mayfield and the rest of the Bucs pointed out after the game. It wasn’t an excuse, and they aren’t using it as such.
At this point, it’s fair to ask if Bowles should be on the hot seat. Right now, the answer definitely leans more toward “yes” than “no.” This is now the fourth-straight in-season slump under Bowles, except this time it’s anchored by what is the worst loss of his career as Bucs head coach.
The downtrodden NFC South is the reason why he’s 10-3 in December, which doesn’t mean anything at this point when considering the fact that the team has never made it past the divisional round of the playoffs in his tenure.
Bucs should’ve waited before extending Bowles back in June
Now, the Bucs are in a semi-dilemma with Bowles. They signed him to a three-year contract extension in June that now looks like an awful decision.
Why they didn’t just wait until this year panned out is beyond me. I understand wanting Bowles and Jason Licht in lockstep moving forward, but there was too much baggage, so to speak, over the last few years; the Glazers should have waited until after this year before making a move.
And now, the Bucs are on the verge of their worst collapse since they started 9-3 in 2008, but missed the playoffs after losing their last four games (that was also Jon Gruden’s final year as head coach).
Is there a scenario where the Bucs fire Bowles after 2025?
Yes, but it would have to be the absolute worst-case scenario. I’m unsure if strictly missing the playoffs would result in his dismissal because letting a guy go before his new deal even begins is really bad business. While injuries are no longer an excuse, the Bucs were absolutely hammered by injuries this year.
It’s hard to see Bowles sticking around if the Bucs are simply uncompetitive over the final four games, which includes getting swept by the Carolina Panthers. However, if they eke into the playoffs, Bowles will likely get one more year to prove he can maximize the roster.
Still, it remains to be seen if he can even get the Bucs to the playoffs this year. Thursday’s matchup against the Atlanta Falcons is far from a guaranteed win, and it can really put Bowles’ back against the wall if the Bucs drop another one.
2026 is already shaping up to be a pivotal year for Tampa Bay
It doesn’t matter if Bowles stays or goes after this season – 2026 is already a big year for the Bucs.
It’s the last year of Mayfield’s deal. Mike Evans could very well be retired or a free agent by mid-March. Then, Licht has to figure out what to do with guys like Lavonte David, Cade Otton, Haason Reddick, Jamel Dean, and Rachaad White.
On top of all that, Licht could be looking for a new head coach, as well. If a new sheriff does, in fact, get elected, just how quickly can he make everything come together to the point where the Bucs don’t take a step back or skip a beat? How would Mayfield perform with what would probably be his third offensive coordinator in four years?
It’s frustrating, but it makes the most sense to keep Bowles for now
Unless the final month of the year is an outright disaster, it’s best to let Bowles and Co. have one more go at it in 2026 and then make some major moves in 2027 if things don’t work out as planned.
Hindsight is 20/20, but this is how I felt at the time of the extension, even if I could see both sides of the coin. The Bucs put themself in a questionable spot, and it backfired. Now, the hope is that the trickle-down effect stays contained, affecting only 2025.
But only time will tell if that happens.
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