Bucs' huge improvement has to show up against Commanders or else they'll lose the Wild Card matchup
Sure, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are known for an aggressive, blitzing-style offense under head coach Todd Bowles and it's been that way since he arrived in 2019.But another major trait has been the Bucs' run defense. Year-in and year-out, it's been one of the NFL's best and opponents typically have a very tough time running […]
Sure, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are known for an aggressive, blitzing-style offense under head coach Todd Bowles and it's been that way since he arrived in 2019.
But another major trait has been the Bucs' run defense. Year-in and year-out, it's been one of the NFL's best and opponents typically have a very tough time running the ball against Vita Vea and co.
That wasn't the case through the first nine games of the 2024 season, though. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Bucs defense allowed 131.1 rushing yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry, and +0.04 EPA/attempt over that span. Those numbers ranked 14th, 28th, and 27th in the NFL.
Opponents also fielded a 46.0% positive play rate and a first-down run rate of 28.0%, which ranked 24th and 29th, respectively. It's not like opposing offenses were just running the ball all the time either – the Bucs ranked in the lower half of carries against throughout the first nine weeks of the season.
It's safe to say things have gotten back on track after they played the 49ers in Week 10, however. Since then, the Bucs lead the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed (62.3), yards per carry (3.3), and EPA/att (-0.20). Second place in each stat belongs to the Broncos (82.6), Panthers (3.6), and Broncos (-0.17).
And it's even safer to say the Bucs are going to need their run defense to show up this weekend when they take on the Washington Commanders in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.
Sure, when people think of the Commanders, they probably think mostly of Jayden Daniels making big passes to Terry McLaurin and then using his legs to make even more plays. While that's true, it's been clear since the preseason that the Commanders offense has to have its running game going if it wants to be effective.
And I'm not talking about designed QB runs or scrambles, even if those do play a big role in how things can shake out for Daniels and co. No, I'm strictly talking running backs and designed carries for them. Below are the rushing numbers without Daniels during the Commanders' five losses:
| Opposition | Rush attempts | Rush yards | Rush yards per carry | Rush TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Buccaneers | 14 | 50 | 3.57 | 1 |
Ravens | 12 | 30 | 2.50 | 0 |
Steelers | 19 | 55 | 2.89 | 3 |
Eagles | 21 | 75 | 3.57 | 1 |
Cowboys | 18 | 71 | 3.94 | 0 |
In all, Washington ran the ball 84 times for 281-yards and five touchdowns in those games when excluding Daniels' stats. That's an average of 16.8 carries per game, 56.2 yards per game, 3.3 yards per carry, and one touchdown per game. Outside of Week 1 against the Bucs, it's not like the Commanders trailed big throughout any of those games and had to abandon the run, either. The other four contests were decided by a combined 24 points and that includes a late fourth quarter surge from the Eagles and a last-second kick return for a touchdown against the Cowboys that really should've been kneeled down instead of ran in for the score.
Brian Robinson Jr. leads the way and he's one of the NFL's most underrated running backs. He brings a violent, physical tone to the game that the rest of the offense feeds off and that defenses hate to see in the fourth quarter. Daniels and McLaurin are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the offense, but Robinson is easily the next-most important player when it comes to making the offense work.
When the Commanders running game stalls, the offense stalls, and we saw that most recently in the first half of the Week 18 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. The Commanders dropped back to pass 16 times compared to three designed handoffs and the end result was four first half sacks and three total points. It got to the point where Dan Quinn pulled Daniels during halftime and played Marcus Mariota in order to avoid any potential injury. And that's after Quinn talked all week about how important it was to hold on to the NFC's sixth seed.
The Bucs certainly have the pieces to stop the Commanders and if they can get a guy like Antoine Winfield Jr. back in the fold, then their chances of making it happen get even better.
Either way, they have to get it done. Because you don't want to play this Commanders team when the running game is making an impact. And if it does, you can guarantee to a swift first round exit for the guys in pewter and red.
