Bucs-Panthers Preview: Zyon McCollum’s absence and stopping Carolina’s rushing attack highlight top storylines on defense
The Bucs defense has show up and play well against the Panthers or else it will be another long day for Tampa Bay.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has completely fallen apart over the back half of the season and has become one of the league’s most unreliable units.
Todd Bowles’ crew is giving up an average of 29.3 points per game since Week 10 and now it gets to face a Carolina Panthers offense that features a developing Bryce Young, a solid offensive line, and multiple weapons in guys like Tetairoa McMillan, Rico Dowdle, and even Jalen Coker, to an extent.
This is a must-win game and the defense has to at least provide solid play if the Bucs want to come out as victors. So, let’s dive into the top storylines facing the defense heading into Week 16.
What does the secondary look like without Zyon McCollum?
Evan: The Bucs’ starting corner was placed on IR earlier in the week after injuring his hip in Week 15 against the Atlanta Falcons. Kindle Vildor replaced him on the outside and he’ll likely be the starter this week against the Panthers. Rookie Benjamin Morrison could play on the left side, but each boundary has a different set of responsibilities and it’s unclear whether or not he’s familiarized himself enough with McCollum’s territory.
Traditionally, Bowles lines Jamel Dean up on the right side of the defense and McCollum on the left. Both players stay on each side, as well, so it’ll be interesting to see if Bowles changes that up this week because rookie sensation Tetairoa McMillan lines up on both sides of the perimeter at a near-50/50 split. If he, or even Coker, is consistently winning against someone not named Dean, it would serve Bowles well to change things up as long as it’s feasible.
Speaking of Coker, he lines up in the slot, as well as outside. He’ll face off against rookie cornerback Jacob Parrish, which should provide plenty of entertaining moments. He’s been the Panthers’ hottest receiver over the last couple of games and adds to the Bucs defense’s long list boxes to check on Sunday.
Kole: Jalen Coker has been quite the revelation for the Panthers’ passing game and he’s really started to emerge at the perfect time for this offense. In each of the team’s previous two games, Coker made his way into the end zone while leading the team in receiving in each game.
The reason Coker’s emergence came at the perfect time is because first-round rookie Tetairoa McMillan has been in a funk the last few weeks in terms of his production. Against the Los Angeles Rams, McMillan had just one reception (a 43-yard touchdown on fourth-down) and against the New Orleans Saints last week, McMillan had only two receptions for 25-yards.
In those two games, McMillan had just six total targets after having seven targets back in Week 12 and 12 targets in Week 11 during his breakout game. Finding ways to start getting him the ball again will be key for this offense to take advantage of the Bucs’ secondary.
Panthers’ head coach Dave Canales has done a nice good moving McMillan around the formation since the midpoint of the season to avoid locking him into the X and create better matchups for his rookie. Lulls can happen from time to time and it just takes on scripted game plan to get a player going again, and I feel like that’ll be the case with McMillan on Sunday.
Can the Bucs slow down the Panthers’ rushing attack?
Evan: Per Sports Info Solutions Panthers running backs average 0.02 EPA/carry, which is good for seventh overall, and they maintain a 45.7% success rate, which is 13th-best. They aren’t going to break a bunch of tackles or make guys miss in the open field, but the offensive line routinely opens holes and grinds down opposing defensive fronts.
The Bucs’ run defense has been just average since Week 10. Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ ground game had frequent success in Week 15 and he made defenders miss on several key plays. The second level has been questionable, at best, all year long and it’s really showed up over the back half of the season.
It will be on Vita Vea and the defensive line to set the tone in the run game. Vea has to dominate the interior and free up guys on the outside, but those guys have to be smart and aware enough to set the edge and not over-pursue. If Vea and Co. can’t get it going it’ll be another long day on defense.
Kole: The Panthers continue to lean into the two-back approach with Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard at a near even split now that Hubbard is back to his normal self. And it’s no secret that the more the Panthers lean into the run game, the better the results for the entire team.
With either back on the field, Canales feels like his entire playbook is open based on what both players bring as a runner, blocker, and receiver out of the backfield. The rushing attack has been difficult to defend because the offensive line, despite the revolving door of injuries, continue to create big holes for the backs, even in the screen game as well.
What’s really made this offense more deadly the last few weeks has been the emergence of the deep passing game, which is helping keep defenses more honest. And with the downfield strikes hitting, Canales has been able to call a more aggressive game plan on short-yardage situations. Look no further than the Rams game when the Panthers scored two touchdowns on a 30+ yard pass play in a fourth-and-short situation. The threat of the run game is opening up more downfield opportunities for Canales and Young to draw up so it’s not just as easy as shutting down the run game anymore.
How much will Dave Canales’ familiarity with Baker Mayfield and Co. impact the game?
Evan: Sure, head coaches will typically shoot this down and say “it’s a completely different year” if asked and that’s totally logical.
However, it’s hard for me to sit here and think Canales will have little-to-no foreknowledge that can help the Panthers offense against the Bucs defense. There’s also the other side of the ball – Canales’ close relationship with Baker Mayfield can help the Panthers defense get an edge.
Canales was in meetings almost every single day with Mayfield and played a huge role in his 2023 development. The strengths and weaknesses he worked with just don’t go away over time – especially for a vet like Mayfield who knows what to rely on and avoid these days.
Then, he had to go up against Bowles’ defense three times a week for over half a year. The defensive roster may not be the same and Bowles has made changes over the last couple of years, but there are still plenty of tendencies and other traits Canales will be able to quickly identify and attack due to his time with the Bucs.
It’s just a matter of how much it’ll impact the game, instead of if it does.
Kole: During that first and only season working with Mayfield, Canales helped get the former No. 1 overall pick back on track and helped breathe confidence back into his lungs, not that a guy like Mayfield was necessarily lacking in that regard.
Still, Canales knows Mayfield well, even if it’s been a few years since working together and the Panthers are fully aware of all the comments Mayfield has made about the organization, even if that previous regime is far away from the building.
Part of this does feel a little personal for both sides. Canales went 0/2 against the Bucs in his first season with the Panthers, including a 48-14 blowout the last time these two teams faced off in Week 17 of the 2024 season, a game in which Mayfield tossed five touchdowns. There’s still a bitter taste from that game, whether anyone wants to admit it or not.
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