Emeka Egbuka’s big test and a struggling offensive line highlight Bucs offense’s biggest questions vs. Patriots
The Bucs offense will try and bounce back against a tough Patriots defense on Sunday.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off the bye week and looking to start 7-2 for the first time since the franchise won its first Super Bowl back in 2002. It won’t be easy, however, as the Bucs have to beat an upstart New England Patriots in order to make it happen.
The offense where Baker Mayfield and Co. have struggled over the last couple of games. A week’s worth of rest and extra preparation should help Josh Grizzard’s crew, along with the potential return of Luke Goedeke, but that remains to be seen.
With all that being said, I had A to Z NFL’s Rob Gregson join in on the fun and give some perspective from the Patriots’ side of things as we breakdown the biggest questions facing the Bucs offense in Week 10.
Can Emeka Egbuka step up as WR1 against a tough test in Christian Gonzalez?
Evan: Egbuka recorded 25 receptions for 445 yards and five touchdowns during the first five games of the year. Over the last three games, he’s snagged nine receptions for a total of 117 yards and no touchdowns.
To say he’s cooled off is an understatement. Granted, Mayfield’s recent inconsistencies and then injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have played a big role in the decline. Defenses can now zero in on Egbuka since he’s the No. 1 option in the passing game and that’s a big challenge for a rookie. No matter how good he’s been.
It’s not going to get any easier, either, as he has a really tough challenge coming up in Christian Gonzalez. Mayfield still has other options outside Egbuka, but the star rookie is the team’s most explosive playmaker on offense, right now, so they need him to make some plays on Sunday.
Rob: Want to know how good Christian Gonzalez is? The Patriots are 6-0 when he plays this year. He has fully blossomed into the lockdown corner that many saw when he came out of Oregon a few years back. The match-up with Egbuka will be one of the best all year. This is like having two finely tuned engines during a street race. Both players have effortless technique and fundamentals. It will be a good battle from start to finish.
Can the bucs’ interior offensive line hold its own?
Evan: The Bucs offensive line has struggled as a whole over the last two games, but it really had some issues against the New Orleans Saints in Week 8. Especially the interior line composed of Ben Bredeson, Graham Barton, and Dan Feeney.
Well, they better have figured out some things over the bye week, because they are about to face their toughest test of the year in standout defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Milton Williams. The potential return of Goedeke would certainly help, but only to a certain extent.
“[The] defense starts up front, to be honest with you,” Mayfield told reporters Wednesday. “I mean, between [Christian] Barmore and Milton Williams two really, really, good interior d-line players, and then from there, their DBs are making a lot of plays. Obviously, they had some changes [and a] couple guys [were] traded off, but the DBs are playing aggressive because that front is getting some pass rush.”
Barmore and Williams each have 30 pressures on the year, which is tied for 10th-most out of 99 eligible defensive linemen, per NFL Pro. The pressure rate for both players hovers right around 14%, as well, which is higher than guys named Trey Hendrickson, Jalen Carter, and Zach Allen. They aren’t getting home as much – both players have combined for 3.5 sacks so far this year. The constant pressure throws opposing QBs off their game as Mayfield mentioned, though, which is also considered a win for the defense.
They’re kind of mediocre against the run, however. Perhaps the Bucs can find some success running it between the tackles with Rachaad White. That’s likely where they start and then go from there, but we’re going to see another off performance from Mayfield and the passing attack if Barmore and Williams have their typical kind of day.
Rob: Typically, you think of pass-rushing matchups on the outside of the offensive line. But as Evan previewed, this one will come down to big on big. New England’s EDGEs don’t match up well against the Bucs tackle duo, even with Charlie Heck in there. But that’s fine. Because not only have Barmore and Williams created pressure up the middle, that’s the krypotine for smaller QBs like Mayfield. Expect New England to match up and hunt the interior of the Bucs’ line with games and twists.
How will the Bucs run the ball against the Patriots?
Evan: The Patriots run defense ranks tops in the league across the board in the most important metrics, even with Barmore’s and Williams’ aforementioned inconsistencies. Granted game flow in certain weeks has helped them stack some excellent numbers, but even guys like James Cook, Jaylen Warren, and DeVon Achane couldn’t get much going when they faced off against Mike Vrabel’s squad.
A big reason why the run defense is so good is because of linebacker Robert Spillane. He is one of the league’s best run defenders thanks to his hustle and ability to fly to the ball and get guys to the ground, as evidenced by his seventh-best average depth of tackle mark of 3.1 yards.
Not only will the Bucs have to win up front, but they’ll have to make plays on the second level and that’s not an easy ask for any running game.
Rob: Spillane’s development since his time with the Steelers is nothing short of a modern marvel. He went from struggling to step on the field, to becoming one of the league’s best run-stuffing backers. And that’s where the loss of Bucky Irving will hurt Tampa. White simply doesn’t have the second-level, make-you-miss ability that Irving does. So even if the Bucs dent the front line, there could be a lot of clean-up duty for Spillane.
Will Baker Mayfield look like his old self?
Evan: Granted, this isn’t all within Mayfield’s control. The offensive line has to block, the running backs have to gain yards, and the receivers have to catch his passes in order for him to have an effective day. At the same time, however, there are plenty of aspects within Mayfield’s control that can not only help him have a good game, but his teammates, as well.
For starters, he has to be more accurate with his throws. Sure, some of the off-target passes we’ve seen the last two games were the result of strong defensive performances, but there were plenty of times where we saw him miss an open guy or make a bad decision that hurt the offense.
Mayfield did admit Wednesday that his oblique injury has limited him a bit lately, but he’s still not using it as an excuse for poor play. Regardless, he has to step up and get things back on track or else the ceiling for this Bucs offense drops dramatically.
Rob: This is shaping up to be one of those games where Mayfield has to put the cape on his back. A sore oblique, struggling offensive line, and banged skill groupings against one of the league’s better defenses is the environment Mayfield is walking into. When he’s on, he’s one of the better players we have seen at the QB position. Tampa will need a vintage performance to pull out the win.
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