Buccaneers’ playoff chances just received a major boost that also makes the Panthers game more important than ever
Tua Tagovailoa’s benching will certainly have a trickle down effect that can help the Bucs dig out of their current playoff hole.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dug themselves a pretty big hole, which makes the Week 16 matchup against the Carolina Panthers the biggest game of their season.
That’s because the Bucs will be 1.5 games behind the Panthers with just two games if they lose. Not only would the season finale against Carolina become a win-or-go-home scenario, but next week’s matchup against the Miami Dolphins would fall into that category, as well.
However, the Bucs can lock up their fifth-straight NFC South title with wins against the Panthers and Dolphins in Weeks 16 and 17, and the latter just became a lot more realistic thanks to the latest news out of South Beach.
Dolphins bench Tua Tagovailoa ahead of Week 16 matchup vs. Bengals
Speculation surrounding a potential benching arose after Mike McDaniel left the door open for a potential QB change on Tuesday, and now it’s official. Per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, the Dolphins have benched Tua Tagovailoa for what appears to be the rest of the 2025 season. Seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers will take his place while former top-five draft pick Zach Wilson backs him up.
The Buccaneers have to like their odds against a seventh-round rookie making the second start of his career if they face Ewers in Week 17. That’s far from guaranteed, however, because if Ewers plays poorly enough, the Dolphins could switch things up and put Wilson behind center against the Bucs.
Even with Tagovailoa’s struggles, it’s a much more ideal scenario to go up against Ewers or Wilson based on what we know about all three players. Tagovailoa, while inconsistent, still has the ceiling where he can take over a game from time to time, whereas the others don’t.
How beating Panthers and Dolphins hands Buccaneers the NFC South
This week’s matchup with the Panthers is now more important than ever: The Bucs are NFC South champs if they beat Carolina in Week 16 and beat Miami the following Sunday.
That’s even if the Panthers beat the Seahawks in Week 17 and end up beating the Bucs in Week 18, too. In this scenario, both teams would finish the year at 9-8 and 3-3 in the division with a 1-1 split between them. That would kick things down to the common-opponents tiebreaker, where the Bucs would finish with a 7-5 record in 12 common games, to the Panthers’ 5-7 record.
So, it’s easy to see why the Tagovailoa benching makes this week’s game against the Panthers even more important. A win in Week 16 pits the Bucs up against a Dolphins team with a potentially huge question mark at quarterback (even bigger than when Tua was at the helm), and if the Bucs beat the ‘Fins, they’re in the playoffs.
And a Week 16 loss only puts them further in the grave they’ve dug themselves over the last two weeks.
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