It wasn’t easy, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally snapped a three-game losing streak by beating the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13. It actually turned out to be a must-have because the Carolina Panthers kept pace by upsetting the Los Angeles Rams in Bank of America Stadium.

If it turned into a situation where the Bucs lost to the Cardinals, the Panthers would’ve overtaken the NFC South lead at 7-6. That obviously didn’t happen, but it’s a stark reminder of how the Bucs don’t have a lot of room for error over these final five games. Especially when considering they still have to play the Panthers twice in a span of three weeks.

That, along with losses by the Philadelphia Eagles and aforementioned Rams, have the Bucs in an interesting spot: They could realistically find themselves sitting atop the NFC heading into the playoffs or they could find themselves completely out of the race when it’s all said and done.

So, with that, let’s take a look at the Bucs’ full playoff spectrum and what the most likely outcome will be.

Bucs can own the NFC’s No. 1 seed if they take care of business and get some help

The division leaders

Before we dive into the help aspect of the current Bucs’ playoff picture, let me preface this with the fact one loss would basically render all this moot when considering the added elements needed to get back to the top. Therefore, we’ll operate under the hypothetical Tampa Bay wins all of its remaining games. The rest would need to play out as below for the Bucs to get back to No. 1.

1. Chicago Bears (9-3)

Right now, the Chicago Bears hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but Caleb Williams and Co. still have to play the Green Bay Packers twice, the Detroit Lions, and the San Francisco 49ers. The “easiest” remaining game on the schedule is matchup against the Cleveland Browns. In all, the Bears have the fifth-hardest remaining strength of schedule based on win percentage.

The Bucs would automatically assume the conference record tiebreaker over the Bears if Chicago were to drop two NFC games. The Bears would have four NFC losses to the Bucs’ three in this instance.

The Bears are hot and they have veterans who know what it’s like to play meaningful football in December. These last five games will provide a great litmus test to see just how much weight they can really swing around.

2. Los Angeles Rams (9-3)

The Bucs need the Rams to lose three of their last five games, which looks to be a tough ask when considering LA has the seventh-easiest remaining strength of schedule. The Rams obviously hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucs and that’s why they need three losses instead of two. Their final five opponents are the Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Lions, and Cardinals (twice). So, yeah, this is certainly a long shot, but possible.

While the Panthers have shown plenty of fight in 2025 — that Rams’ loss shows they are a beatable team. The Seahawks and Lions games will be the key matchups to watch. If the Rams lose those games, then who knows, they could stumble in one of the other three. Especially when considering two of said three are divisional games. Those should never be taken lightly, no matter how bad the opponent may be.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)

The Bucs owe the Dallas Cowboys a huge favor because we probably aren’t having this conversation if Dak Prescott and Co. don’t beat the Eagles in Week 13.

Philly needs to lose two of its final five due to another head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucs. That’s why these NFC matchups are so important — they can really help or hurt a team by the time December rolls around.

The Eagles have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule and of their “hardest” games is against a Los Angeles Chargers team that could be without Justin Herbert in Week 14. After the Chargers, it’s the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, and Commanders. The Chargers, Commanders, and Bills games are all on the road, which helps.

The Eagles are a bit dysfunctional, right now, so who knows how it’ll shake out up North. Either way, there’s a possible path where the Bucs can jump them and snag the No. 3 seed.

Wild card threats

1. Seattle Seahawks (9-3)

So here’s the tricky part with the Rams: If they lose three games, then the Seahawks will basically take the No. 2 seed and maybe even the No. 1 seed depending on what happens with the Bears. That’s if Seattle maintains three losses, of course.

Which is exactly why the Bucs need the Seahawks to lose at least two games. If that happens, the Bucs will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to their Week 5 win. This one isn’t complicated, at all, and the Seahawks have the third-hardest remaining strength of schedule that includes games against the Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, Rams, Falcons, and Panthers.

The Seahawks are definitely one of the NFL’s best teams, but that’s a tough road. The best part for the Bucs is it offers a scenario where either the ‘Hawks or Rams are guaranteed to get one of the needed losses for the Bucs to get to No. 1.

2. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)

The Packers’ situation is similar to the Seahawks’ in the fact that Bears losses would push Green Bay up and over the Bucs in the top-4 seeds. Therefore, the Bucs need the Packers to lose two games since the tie with the Cowboys would give them a lower winning percentage with each team having the same amount of losses.

The Packers have the second-hardest remaining strength of schedule, but largely because they play the Bears twice. The other three opponents are the Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, and Baltimore Ravens.

3. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

Rinse and repeat the above scenarios. With all that being said, the Bucs need the 9ers to lose just one of the next five since they’ll hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The 49ers have the eighth-hardest remaining strength of schedule. They have to play the Seahawks, Bears, Colts, and Titans once they get back from their Week 14 bye.

Outsiders that could shake things up

1. Detroit Lions (7-5)

If the Lions were to find themselves back atop the NFC North with five losses then the Bucs would need them to lose one more game or else the Lions would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. They have the seventh-hardest remaining strength of schedule and have to play the Cowboys, Bears, Rams, Vikings, and Steelers.

2. Carolina Panthers (7-6)

The most direct to threat to the Bucs, the Panthers play them twice over the final five games. One win would give the Panthers a full one-game lead and a sweep would likely seal the Bucs’ fate and end their streak of NFC South titles.

On top of the Bucs, it’s the Saints and Seahawks that fill the rest of Carolina’s schedule. The Week 16 matchup in Bank of America Stadium is shaping up to be one of the year’s biggest games for each team.

Final Prediction

There’s a lot to like when it comes to the Bucs’ chances of getting back atop the NFC. Most of the teams that could affect their standing have tough slates of games over this last month-and-change and a lot of them play each other, too.

Then, there’s the fact the Bucs are getting healthier. Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan could return in the next few weeks while Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and Haason Reddick all looked pretty good in their Week 13 returns. The coaching staff still has a lot to figure out, but the improved health can definitely play a large role in a potential late-season run.

With all that being said, it’s still hard to trust this team can win six straight games to close out the season. I think someone from the NFC West will eventually reign supreme and when it comes to the Bucs, I think they’ll finish with the No. 3 seed. There’s a world where No. 2 is very possible, as well, since the NFC North could cannibalize itself over the last several games, but I don’t think it’ll happen to the point where Tampa Bay claims runner-up.

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Evan Winter