Bucs-Saints Preview: Haason Reddick’s injury highlights the top storylines on defense
The Bucs are set up for a solid day, but have some boxes to check before that happens.
Just like the preview on offense, fellow Bucs writer and A to Z New Orleans’ Adam Holt will give their takes on the following storylines, so let’s stop wasting time and get started.
How will the pass rush look without Haason Reddick?
Evan: It’s not official, but Todd Bowles said Wednesday he thinks Reddick will miss time even though the Bucs have yet to see the MRI results. Bowles usually doesn’t give early insight into injuries, so that says a lot when placing the comment in proper context.
A Reddick-less pass rush is a big blow to the Bucs defense. Sure, the sack numbers aren’t there, but he’s creating pressure at a consistent rate and his presence also opens things up for Yaya Diaby, who currently leads the team with 4.0 sacks. Per Pro Football Focus, Reddick’s 27 total pressures are tied for 12th-most out of all 180 EDGE players. His 14.7% pressure rate is pretty solid and ties with guys like Danielle Hunter, Brian Burns, and Josh Hines-Allen. It’s actually better than Myles Garrett’s and Maxx Crosby’s, as well, although they play different variations of the EDGE position.
Reddick has been good against the run, too. He ranks seventh in ESPN’s EDGE run stop win rate with a 30% RSWR. He’s a do-it-all player and he’s been a key cog in the Bucs’ front seven.
Anthony Nelson and Chris Braswell will step up and try to fill the void, but replacing Reddick is going to be really hard.
Adam: Getting after Spencer Rattler can absolutely be a game changer for Tampa this weekend. The offensive line for the Saints will be without their most proven player in Erik McCoy, and Trevor Penning struggled last week against Chicago’s pass rush at guard.
Rattler has had the 4th-lowest time to throw this season (2.66 seconds), and the blitz has created some issues for him. The Saints quarterback is 21st in the NFL in EPA against the blitz. Todd Bowles loves to create chaos, and I expect he’ll throw plenty of curveballs toward the young QB.
Craig: If Reddick is indeed out, then I imagine Todd Bowles’ gameplan will get even that more aggressive. The Bucs will have to be strategic and creative in sending players from various looks, and from the secondary, Tykee Smith has been good in getting after the passer.
Him and Lavonte David in blitz packages and Vita Vea up the middle could be important in generating some pressure on Spencer Rattler on Sunday, in addition to, of course, Yaya Diaby adding to his team-leading sack total.
Bucs defense can’t allow the big play
Evan: The Saints aren’t very explosive on the ground, but they can create chunk plays through the air. Next Gen has them manufacturing 48.6 passing yards per game off deep passes (20+ air yards), which is eighth-best, and their three passing touchdowns of 20+ yards are tied for sixth-most.
The Bucs have allowed just one passing touchdown of 20+ air yards so far this year and opponents generate just 29.3 yards per game, which is ninth-lowest. They have to keep that up against the Saints if they want to win this game. Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave have to be kept in check and Bowles even talked about making sure the Bucs stop the big play earlier in the week. If they are able to make plays downfield then Tampa Bay’s task becomes a lot harder on Sunday.
Adam: Chris Olave was a proponent of the big play last week for the Saints, and everyone knows how dynamic Rashid Shaheed is downfield. Shaheed hit 21.72 miles per hour on a touchdown catch and run in Week 5, so Tampa cannot afford to miss a step on the back end versus him.
I am also interested to see if we see Taysom Hill throw the ball downfield once or twice to give the Bucs a much different look than what Hill has done since his return from injury this season. Hill has found success on the ground against Tampa in past seasons, but a play action shot to one of the speedy targets in the passing game from him could open up the entire offense for Kellen Moore.
Craig: My colleagues have talked about the passing game down the field with the Saints’ pass catchers very well – and indeed, the speed of Rashid Shaheed and the overall game of Chris Olave make big plays a real factor on Sunday.
However, the Bucs have been the worst team in the league at corralling opposing running backs after they catch the ball, allowing 400+ receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. Jahmyr Gibbs had a field day last week and showed that the Bucs’ defense can be had by utilizing a shifty and speedy back in the passing game and putting the running back in one-one-one situations with a defender. That can’t happen two weeks in a row with Alvin Kamara.
Speaking of which…
Do not let Alvin Kamara make plays in space
Evan: One of the Bucs’ biggest issues, if not the biggest issue, is stopping running backs after the catch. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Bucs have allowed a league-high 422 receiving yards to the running back position. That’s right at 60 yards per game, which is one pace for over 1,000 yards when stretched out over the course of the entire season.
Yes, keeping a lid on the passing game is important, but the Bucs can’t let Alvin Kamara get going in that area nor can they allow him to break tackles on the ground. Tackling was an issue against Detroit and while Bowles said the team will work on it this week, we have to see it improve before we can bank on it.
The good news for the Bucs is the Saints are dead last in EPA/pass when targeting the backfield, but that also leaves no room for excuse.
Adam: Kamara has seemingly been slowed by the Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons in past seasons when it comes to massive gains. Whether it is a divisional difference or a game plan tactic, those two NFC South squads have kept the veteran running back bottled up at times in the passing game.
For New Orleans’ success in Week 8, Kamara must play a massive role, especially after the Saints lost backup RB Kendre Miller for the season. Of the two, Miller has actually been the more explosive player this season when it comes to breaking tackles and extending gains after first contact. Kamara’s skillset remains valuable, though, and maybe we see a bit more vintage Alvin with more pressure on him to perform.
Craig: I’m not all that worried about Kamara in the running game, even if perhaps I should be. He’s having a career-worst season running the ball through seven weeks, and the Saints’ ground game doesn’t seem like the usual dangerous unit that it has been against the Bucs before.
But, getting back to what I mentioned above, Kamara is still less than a calendar year removed from finishing with 543 receiving in 2024. If the Bucs cannot do a better job on him than they’ve done with Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, and Gibbs this year, then the Saints might have a real shot at pulling off the upset on Sunday.
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