Every year, there are prospects teams fall in love with and for some, it’s a pointless affair due to the fact it’s guaranteed most of said prospects won’t be there when said team has to pick.

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that guy is looking more and more like former Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles. After Thursday’s workout, it’s clear Styles is top-10 material and the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys are lurking there at Nos. 7 and 12, respectively, as top suitors for the uber-talented linebacker.

In other words: It’s a 99.9% certainty the Bucs will have to trade up to get Styles. The only questions are how far is far enough and do they have what it takes to get there?

Draft trades, especially in the first round, aren’t an exact science by any means. However, there is plenty of history and available metrics to where we really dial down and get an accurate idea of what it would take to move up and draft Styles. Within reason, of course.

I went back and looked at all the first round trades since 2016 and highlighted the ones involving a team at No. 15 or within a pick or two in order to get an idea of what previous moves tell us. Then, I used the Rich Hill draft chart, the Jimmy Johnson chart, and the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart to see if there are any reasonable and logical alternatives produced from those areas.

How far can the Bucs trade up to get Sonny Styles in the first round of the draft?

1. Los Angeles Rams trade with the Tennessee Titans for the first overall pick

• 2016 NFL Draft
• Titans receive: No. 15 overall, Nos. 43 and 45 overall (2nd round), No. 76 overall (3rd round), and a first and third round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 1,006
• Rams receive: No. 1 overall
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 1,000

So, here you go. This is what it would look like if the Buccaneers wanted to trade all the way up to No. 1 overall. That’s obviously not going to happen, however, as the Bucs simply don’t have the need for it. Regardless, it’s a historical example that does show just how valuable these top selections can be.

2. Titans jump from No. 15 overall to No. 8 overall after trading with the Cleveland Browns

• 2016 NFL Draft
• Browns receive: No. 15 overall, No. 76 overall (3rd round), and 2017 second-rounder
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 497
• Titans receive: No. 8 overall, No. 176 overall (6th round)
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 413

This is a great example that shows how teams pay a little extra when there’s a desire to move from peripheral of the top-10 to the inside. The +84 margin for the Browns is worth the 62nd overall pick via the Rich Hill chart, so the Titans actually paid the equivalent another second-rounder on top of what they sent.

Moving up to No. 8 would all but guarantee Styles becomes a Buc. Jason Licht would leapfrog the Cowboys at 12 and place himself squarely behind the Commanders at 7. As long as Washington doesn’t pull the trigger –which there’s certainly a chance it could– Styles is all his.

The question then becomes whether or not Styles is worth the price to make this kind of jump. In all honesty, offering up this year’s third and next year’s second (along with a first round swap of course) isn’t a bad deal to move up seven spots and get a guy who can not only be the instant-impact player the Bucs need at the position, but a foundational piece for years to come.

The final questions are do the Bucs have to move all the way up to eight? And it’s easy to wonder if they’ll just be blacklisted when considering the New Orleans Saints hold the pick. The good news is the Saints are in a full-blown youth movement and only have an extra pick in the fourth round, so it could be a unique situation where the rivals are able to come to an agreement.

Regardless, I don’t necessarily think the Bucs have to move up to No. 8 to snag Styles and fortunately, I found a scenario directly dealing with the 15th overall pick that gives us a great idea of what a somewhat-lesser move would look like.

3. Arizona Cardinals move up from No. 15 to No. 10 after trading with the (then) Oakland Raiders

• 2018 NFL Draft
• Raiders receive: No. 15 overall, No. 79 overall (3rd round), and No. 152 overall (5th round)
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 384
• Cardinals receive: No. 10 overall
  • Package points via Rich Hill draft pick value chart: 369

Now, Bucs fans, this is it. This is the sweet spot.

Jason Licht would be crazy to forgo spending a third- and fifth-rounder in this year’s draft to lock up Styles. The Cincinnati Bengals are also a realistic trade-back candidate if the board falls a certain way by the time they’re on the clock – it’s not like they’re sitting at 10 no matter what happens.

Licht is one of the NFL’s best GMs and he would easily recognize the value that comes with this trade. The Bucs get an immediate-impact, yet foundational, player with out having to spend too much.

The Bucs would pay 375 to 369 in this scenario, making it an almost-even trade. But, based on what we saw Thursday, they may have to look more into the No. 8 situation with the Titans and Browns in 2018.

Overall, trading up to No. 8 would make sense depending on the price, but No. 10 is definitely the sweet spot the Bucs need to aim for.

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