Predicting Buccaneers' most impactful rookie in 2023
OTAs officially begin this week, so we'll finally start receiving clues as to what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster will look like in 2023. Of all the positions up for grabs, the receiver room is one of the more set groups. The trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage Jr. is one of […]
OTAs officially begin this week, so we'll finally start receiving clues as to what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster will look like in 2023.
Of all the positions up for grabs, the receiver room is one of the more set groups. The trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage Jr. is one of the NFL's better sets of triplets. Behind them, however, is nothing but questions.
And opportunity, as well.
Veteran wideout David Moore is the only receiver with extensive NFL experience and even then, it's easy to think of his biggest impact will come via meetings and on the practice field. Moore is very familiar with Dave Canales' offense after playing in it for four seasons. He had the best year of his career in 2020, but has really struggled to find his footing since then. It's very unclear as to whether or not he'll regain it with the Bucs.
The familiarity will help the seven youngsters behind him that have played a combined 81 offensive snaps in the NFL. The group of seven also includes five rookies and four of the five are UDFAs.
The lack of youth and inexperience won't matter, however, as one of the rookies, the lone draftee in Trey Palmer, will provide a major spark to the Buccaneers offense in 2023
Palmer is an explosive athlete that can stretch the field and he also has the skillset to provide big plays in the return game. His 3.26 yards per route run lead all FBS wideouts with at least 95 targets (49 qualifying players) and he set the Nebraska record for most receiving yards in a single season with 1,043.
The key with Palmer, however, is that he can play both inside and outside. That versatility will be key, because it allows Canales to move him all over the formation in order to find the best matchup(s).
Palmer's elite speed and playmaking ability is what will make him the most impactful rookie in 2023. His role in both the short- and long-term will be similar to that of the Seahawks' Tyler Lockett, who is coming off his fifth-straight 1,000-yard season. Per Pro Football Focus, Lockett was targeted an average of 45.3% of the time he was in the slot, which consisted of 42.4% of his pass routes in 2022, alone. His ability to stretch the field from the slot position is huge and it's exactly what will help Palmer get off to a fast start (pun totally intended).
In other words: Lockett was constantly moving around the inside and outside of the formation, which was key in his production.
Palmer also adds a return element to his game, which the Buccaneers need in a desperate way. The Buccaneers haven't had a player return a kick or punt for a touchdown since 2010, when Michael Spurlock accomplished both feats in the same season.
He's more than ready for his opportunity, as well.
"I really have the playbook down right now," Palmer told reporters a couple of weeks ago. "The first couple of installs I got it down to the ‘T’. I know every position. I know concepts. I know it all right now…
"I study every day, even when I’m just laying in the bed. I don’t really do [anything] when I get home. I just relax and really just look over the plays, draw it up, see where I’m at. I’ll turn the playbook off and give me a list of plays and I’ll write the plays out on a board or something – it helps me memorize it.”
There's plenty of opportunity for top draft picks like Calijah Kancey, Cody Mauch, YaYa Diaby, and SirVocea Dennis to make an impact, but each player has something that will prevent them from making as big an impact in 2023.
Kancey should log plenty of snaps in 2023, but we all know how hard is for a defensive lineman to adjust to NFL life. The Bucs have talked about simplifying Kancey's role so he can play fast, but still, it's tougher for d-linemen to adjust than it is for receivers.
Mauch needs to add more strength to his game and he has a capable challenger in Nick Leverett. Diaby will certainly find playing time, but is very raw, and it's likely he's the fourth man in the pass rush rotation once Shaquil Barrett is back to form. And, finally, Dennis is behind two guys that will be on the field for every single snap in Lavonte David and Devin White. Therefore, his playing time will be reserved for injury or blowouts.
All of these rookies have a shot to make an impact in 2023 and there will certainly times when they do. But in terms of the big picture and overall performance, Palmer is going to have plenty of fans excited for what he can provide once this year is all said and done.