A major gripe of Buccaneer fans appears warranted
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense has had its ups and downs this year under offensive coordinator Dave Canales. There have been times where the Buccaneers were balanced, brilliant, and explosive, such as in convincing wins over playoff hopefuls Green Bay and Jacksonville. However, there have also been times where the Buccaneers have been maddeningly conservative […]
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense has had its ups and downs this year under offensive coordinator Dave Canales. There have been times where the Buccaneers were balanced, brilliant, and explosive, such as in convincing wins over playoff hopefuls Green Bay and Jacksonville.
However, there have also been times where the Buccaneers have been maddeningly conservative and predictable. Most notably, the stubborn insistence on running on first and second downs to set up a third down pass has seemed to hamstring this offense at times.
It's almost as though the Buccaneers are not using first down and second down to actively try to pick up a first down, but rather are using it primarily to set up a manageable third down. That's simply not winning football.
As it turns out, fans who've complained about this perception perhaps have had good reason to. According to research by Arjun Menon, an analyst for Pro Football Focus, the Buccaneers lead the league in series where the team ran on first and second downs and threw on third downs.
According to the report, the Buccaneers have gone run-run-pass on a little over 13% of their first-and-ten or first-and-goal series this season. That's a little over 2% more than any other team in the league. As the chart shows, that's a lot more the rest of the league.
Out of the 55 times that they went run-run-pass this year, they converted a first down on 29 of those 55 third down opportunities. That's a decent conversion rate compared to most of the rest of the league in these circumstances.
However, it still makes the Buccaneers a predictable offense, which is never a particularly good thing. It means, to a degree, going away from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The duo's underusage last week against New Orleans until the Buccaneers were in a big hole was coaching malpractice. For the game Evans had just 4 targets and Godwin had 5.
Also, the Buccaneers are running a lot on first and second down when they've been VERY bad at running the football. Tampa Bay is second to last in the NFL in rushing yards with 1396 and dead last in yards per carry at 3.4. That's not a statistical output you want have when you run as much as the Buccaneers do on early downs.
Don't expect to see much difference on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers either. With Baker Mayfield banged up and dealing with a significant rib injury, it's hard to see them do anything except lean on the running game perhaps even more heavily than they have been this season. And if Mayfield can't go and Kyle Trask gets the start, that's even more likely the case.
Regardless, it doesn't seem like Canales is going to change his stripes at this point. Bucs fans just hope that he manages to call one of his Green Bay or Jacksonville games on Sunday against Carolina with the season on the line and not the plodding, predictable mess that fans saw against New Orleans.
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