The three most likely landing spots for Buccaneers FA Ryan Jensen
Ryan Jensen is arguably the best center in the league, so his foray into 2022 free agency should be as flattering as it is profitable. Spotrac.com has Jensen's current market value at $10 million per year. It's a reasonable figure considering Jensen is coming off his first-career Pro Bowl and has shown no sign of […]
Ryan Jensen is arguably the best center in the league, so his foray into 2022 free agency should be as flattering as it is profitable.
Spotrac.com has Jensen's current market value at $10 million per year. It's a reasonable figure considering Jensen is coming off his first-career Pro Bowl and has shown no sign of slowing down.
There are two deciding factors that will dictate where Jensen goes and they're usually the two deciding factors for any free agent: fit and money.
Before we dive into the potential suitors, we first need to know the type of player that Jensen is.
Let's start with Jensen's strengths in the run game since his abilities in pass pro are not only above average, but more pliable. Jensen is better in a gap-heavy scheme, but his effective when he's asked to block in a zone scheme, as well.
He didn't become a full-time starter in 2017. Coincidentally, the Ravens switched to a gap-heavy offense that year, per Pro Football Focus. That led to a very solid year for Jensen and it earned him the four-year, $42 million deal he signed with the Bucs.
However, per PFF, the Bucs ran mostly zone under Dirk Koetter in 2018 and Jensen struggled with the system and penalties. That changed when Bruce Arians was hired in 2019. The Buccaneers offense shifted to more of a gap scheme that year and have only increased the workload since. Per PFF, the Buccaneers ran power/gap on 72% of runs in 2021 and their 265 reps were third-most in the league. The change in scheme helped Jensen develop into one of the league's best centers. He earned his first Pro Bowl in 2021, as a result.
So, now that we know where the Pro Bowler's strengths lie, we can find which teams fit that best and which ones have enough money to sign him.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will be associated with every single free agent offensive lineman that's worth a damn. But even so, they could make it work with Jensen.
We know the Bengals have the cash to make it work. It's the fit that gets called into question.
Per PFF, the Bengals run game comprised mostly of zone runs, which made up 64% of rushing attempts in 2021. However, Joe Mixon finished 2021 with the seventh-most rushing attempts (84) out of a non-zone scheme. Mixon was OK in this regard. His mark of 4.3 yards per carry and 0.01 EPA/attempt reflect that.

But Zac Taylor's roots are in outside zone, so it's unlikely he'll change his philosophy to the point where the Bengals become gap-heavy. That doesn't mean he can't incorporate more gap runs, though. Good coaches do adapt to their players strengths, at the end of the day.
There's a lot to like with Cincinnati in regard to the overall roster, too. Obviously. But how they -and Jensen- determine the fit will be the deciding factor.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We already know Jensen fits in Tampa Bay. It's simply about how Jason Licht makes the money work.
Ali Marpet's retirement should open up around $7-$10 million, which will obviously help the Buccaneers, here. The decision will likely push the Bucs to go even harder after Jensen or, they'll see Marpet as a signal to go ahead and go with the youth movement in Robert Hainsey.
The Buccaneers can manipulate Jensen's cap hit in the first year of his contract and make it to where he gets paid, but doesn't hurt the cap too much.
For example: Let's say the Bucs give him a three-year, $33 million contract with a $20 million signing bonus and the veteran minimum of $1.12 million in base salary in 2022. Jensen's cap hit with then be close to $8 million for 2022. The more years in the deal likely means a lesser 2022 hit, as well. The Buccaneers could even tack on a void year to the end of this hypothetical, which would make Jensen's cap hit around $6.1 million.
Whatever the strategy, the Bucs would be wise to make it happen, especially after Marpet's retirement.
1. Las Vegas Raiders
Josh McDaniels' offense has been one of more gap-heavy offenses in the NFL over the last few years. That won't change in Las Vegas.
The Raiders have the cash to make this happen, as well. The only thing that really stands in the way is Andre James, last year's starting center. James reportedly improved and became more comfortable as the season went on. But this is a new coaching staff, therefore, nothing is guaranteed.
Plus, James is cheap. He could easily provide reliable depth, which is a great situation to be in.
The Raiders have a playoff-caliber roster and Jensen is also from Rangley, Colorado, which is about 8.5 hours away from Vegas. It makes a ton of sense for him to potentially play out the final 3-4 years of his career within driving distance of home.
Jensen is one of the nastiest players in the league without crossing lines. Just the thought of him in the famous Black and Silver is fitting enough.
All of the other circumstances work, as well. Don't be surprised if he ends up here.
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