Todd Bowles doesn’t back down from key decision that almost cost Bucs a win against Jets
There honestly wasn’t a right or wrong way to go in this situation, but it still almost bit the Bucs.
There were plenty of wild moments during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Week 3 win over the New York Jets, but Chase McLaughlin’s blocked field goal attempt was easily the wildest of them all.
The Bucs were up by six points at the two minute warning. They faced a 4th and 1 from the Jets 20. Instead of going for it in an attempt to ice the game, Todd Bowles decided to kick the field goal and go up two possessions, instead.
The decision made sense. Two possessions would’ve essentially knocked the Jets out of the game, even if a chance of a comeback was still non-zero. The Bucs offense hadn’t done much, at all, in the second half and the defense allowed 14 points over that span, as well. The offensive line’s issues were also well-documented throughout the game, although the front five played much better during the back half of the game compared to the first half.
It didn’t work, though. Will McDonald IV blocked the attempt and took it to the house to give the Jets a one-point lead with less than two minutes to go.
Bowles defended his decision right off the bat after the game.
“It was the right thing to do when we had the fourth-and-one,” said Bowles. “That would’ve put us up by nine. It would have been hard for them to win the ball game. I wasn’t looking for the block, and it happened, and that can’t happen. Thankfully, we came back to win the game.”
The numbers say the Bucs should’ve gone for it – although barely
According to RBSDM, going for it would’ve been the better decision, although barely. As you can see below, it would’ve given the Bucs a 0.1% better chance of winning the game and they still would’ve had a 90% chance of winning if they didn’t convert.
It’s pretty much a coin-toss, but the success rate is the biggest difference and again, when accounting for injuries and game flow, it adds more credence to buying into that context whenever the others are almost at a stalemate.
Still, Bowles has talked about developing a killer instinct all offseason long and while the Bucs allowed the Jets to make it a one-score game, going for it on 4th and 1 (and getting it) would’ve been a big step in the right direction when it comes to instilling that mindset.
There’s also the fact the Jets almost broke through and blocked McLaughlin’s previous attempt. Ironically enough, it was McDonald IV who ran into McLaughlin and got flagged for running into the kicker. Even though he was late, he was close enough to raise a red flag and the Bucs special teams haven’t been the most reliable over the first three weeks – especially the protection unit.
Everything worked out in the end, but the Bucs had a legit chance to close out the game and avoid going through a third-straight last-minute win. There really wasn’t a right or wrong direction to go in because of the slim margins, but ultimately, you want your team to be able to step up and close out a game when it has the chance to do so. Especially in a favorable situation like 4th and 1 and when you have a quarterback who can run like Baker Mayfield.
Regardless, the Bucs won, but it will be interesting to see how they deal with these situations in the future.
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