Todd Bowles has an obvious mission against the Falcons and it’ll result in even more doubt if he drops the ball
The tape and numbers show a clear directive for the Falcons offense. Bowles can’t let Kirk Cousins and Co. do what they want to do.
Todd Bowles isn’t necessarily on the hot seat, but he sure is headed that way after last week’s awful loss to the New Orleans Saints.
He has an excellent chance to get back on track this week against an underwhelming Atlanta Falcons team that’s really struggled on offense with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. In fact, the passing attack has developed a very noticeable trait since he became the full-time starter in Week 12.
The tape and numbers surrounding Cousins and the passing attack should give Bowles all he needs to formulate a blueprint for defensive success and if he can’t get it done it’s only going to cast even more doubt over his effectiveness — and future — as head coach of the Buccaneers.
Kirk Cousins isn’t wasting any time getting the ball out
Cousins averages 2.55 seconds per throw since taking over in Week 12. That’s the second-quickest time-to-throw among all 31 qualifying QBs with at least 51 dropbacks over that span, per Pro Football Focus. The Falcons offense is a quicker-paced offense, but the main reason why Cousins is slinging it so quickly is because he’s basically a statue at this point in his career. Similar to present day Joe Flacco and past Tom Brady — the dude isn’t going anywhere if a pass rusher gets ahold of him.
Cousins has not been good in his last three starts and the ironic part is the quick passing game isn’t working for him, either. Per Next Gen Stats, he’s completed 68% of throws under 2.5 seconds (that’s considered a quick pass by NFL standards), but he’s only managed to amass 186 yards and he’s thrown two touchdowns to three interceptions. He also averages just 5.5 yards per attempt on these throws, which only adds to the ineffectiveness.
Time-to-throw isn’t the most reliable statistic out there because there is usually a ton of context behind the final outcome. In this case, however, it’s clear Cousin’s M.O. is to get the ball out as quick as possible and that even includes the deep shots since he averaged a wild average of 2.46 seconds to throw on four attempts of 20+ air yards against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14.
In other words: No matter the scenario, Cousins and Zac Robinson are trying to get the ball out as quickly as possible and they may be able to find some success against the Bucs, especially with SirVocea Dennis out of the game.
Bucs defense has struggled a bit against quick passing attacks
The Bucs’ defense is used to opposing offenses airing it out as fast as possible and it’s given the unit some troubles over the course of the season.
Overall, opposing offenses average 0.07 EPA/attempt when attempting quick passes against the Bucs’ defense, which is tied for 16th, per Next Gen. The Bucs have given up 11 passing touchdowns under 2.5 seconds or less and that’s tied for sixth-most. Nine of the 11 have come from within the red zone, as well, and that is something the Bucs’ defense certainly needs to be self-aware of heading into this game. If the Falcons’ offense gets into the red zone, be ready for some mustard.
The Bucs’ defense really hasn’t been very good in this situation over the last three weeks, either. So, it’ll be interesting to see if it’s Bowles’ crew or Cousins and Co. that right the ship.
Bucs are kind of their own worst enemy in this vacuum
It’s always made sense why teams have success against the Bucs like this and the answer lies in this year’s fourth-highest blitz rate of 38.1% against throws of 2.5 seconds or less. Guys are either flying at the quarterback or flying to fill a spot vacated by a blitzer, which opposing play-callers and signal-callers can identify and take advantage of. Then, whomever catches the ball can manipulate the defender flying at them at 100 miles per hour.
All it takes is the right move at the right time to make a big play. It’s no surprise the majority of the 11 touchdowns allowed were the result of Bowles sending 5+ defenders.
So how can the Bucs fix this issue against the Falcons?
Don’t blitz as much is the obvious answer. At the same time, Bowles can’t be too soft and just play off-man all day because Cousins will have zero issue taken what’s given to him. Especially when adding in the fact Drake London has already been ruled out. His absence really lowers the effectiveness of the Falcons’ deep passing attack and will influence them to go the quick route, even more.
The Bucs’ defense also has to make sure it immediately wraps up and gets guys on the ground. Missed tackles killed this team against the Falcons last year and it’ll happen again if defenders don’t tackle effectively.
How does it all shake out for the Bucs?
The Bucs should be OK, here. The Falcons’ passing attack is pretty lifeless with Cousins at QB and no London on the field. Zyon McCollum has really struggled this year, so he’s certainly someone to watch and could “get got” a couple of times. Hopefully it doesn’t lead to points if he does.
But overall, the Bucs can keep this passing attack down if it just does the little things right. I know that’s been a big part of the defensive (and offensive) issues lately, but Bowles and Co. should get back on track against the Falcons.
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