What a contract extension for Bucs WR Chris Godwin would look like
The biggest waves of NFL free agency have passed, but there are still plenty of players that could receive new/big deals in the form of contract extensions.Dozens of guys are either entering the final year -or penultimate year- of their current contract and they've played so well that their respective squad is looking to go […]
The biggest waves of NFL free agency have passed, but there are still plenty of players that could receive new/big deals in the form of contract extensions.
Dozens of guys are either entering the final year -or penultimate year- of their current contract and they've played so well that their respective squad is looking to go ahead and extend them, anyway.
A to Z Sports has come up with our own extension projections for said players this offseason. Whether the extensions happen or not remains to be seen, but at least you'll have a viable resource to rely on during the time being.
So, without further ado, let's check out what an extension for Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver, Chris Godwin, would look like.
Extension Projection for Bucs WR Chris Godwin
A former third round pick, Chris Godwin has developed into one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL. Godwin’s breakout season came in 2019 when he caught 86 of his 114 targets for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns. Since then, despite suffering a torn ACL in 2021, he has averaged 96 catches for 1,098 yards and five touchdowns per season.
Godwin has transitioned over his career from an explosive perimeter receiver to more of a possession slot receiver. From 2017-2020 Godwin averaged 14.5 yards per catch while playing 51% of his snaps outside. Since 2021, those numbers have fallen to 11.0 and 40%, respectively. While Godwin’s usage has changed, his efficiency has remained high as he has never had a season where his yards per route run has dipped below 1.70.
Looking at highly targeted, but low average yards per catch receivers, there are a few recent deals that stand out. The most notable is Michael Pittman Jr., who just this offseason signed a three-year deal for $70 million – good for an average of $23.3 million per year.
Here is a comparison of the two over the past three years:
| Player | Routes | Targets | Receptions | Yards | AVG | TDs | YAC | YAC/Rec | Yds/RR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Godwin | 1,705 | 384 | 285 | 3,150 | 11.1 | 10 | 1,495 | 5.2 | 1.85 |
Michael Pittman | 1,761 | 413 | 296 | 3,159 | 10.7 | 14 | 1,204 | 4.1 | 1.79 |
Godwin has the edge in yards, average yards per catch, yards after catch and YAC/reception, as well as the slightest edge in yards per route run. Pittman leads in catches and touchdowns. What’s most impressive is that Godwin kept up with Pittman in routes per target (4.50 to 4.26) despite working in the same offense as Mike Evans while Pittman was a legitimate No. 1 receiver in the Colts offense.
Only 20 months separate Godwin and Pittman, but Pittman’s extension will cover his age 26 – 28 seasons whereas Godwin’s third contract will likely cover his age 29 – 31 seasons. Given that receiver production tends to deteriorate quickly after the age of 30, the Bucs may be hesitant to give Godwin a similar deal to Pittman.
Looking at other receivers who have recently signed third contracts and how they compare to Godwin:
| Player | Age (1st season of contract) | Routes Ran | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Yards per reception | TDs | YAC | YAC/rec | Yards per route run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Godwin | 29 | 1,705 | 384 | 285 | 3,150 | 11.1 | 10 | 1,435 | 5.2 | 1.85 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 31 | 1,313 | 306 | 221 | 2,696 | 12.2 | 17 | 838 | 3.8 | 2.05 |
Mike Evans | 31 | 1,794 | 360 | 230 | 3,423 | 14.9 | 33 | 799 | 3.5 | 1.91 |
Stefon Diggs | 31 | 1,675 | 411 | 293 | 3,892 | 13.3 | 24 | 1,107 | 3.8 | 2.32 |
Godwin trails Diggs and Evans in most categories including yards, touchdowns and yards per route run. Hopkins also outpaces Godwin in yards per route run and touchdowns.
Evans just got $20.5 million per year over two years. Diggs signed his extension in 2022, but it is just starting in 2024. That deal was for four years and $96 million. Hopkins was able to ink a two-year, $26 million deal in 2023.
Godwin has one important advantage over the other three. He would begin his extension in his age-29 season, whereas each of the other three all started their new deals at the age of 31. But one receiver who just signed an extension that will cover the same age-seasons, Calvin Ridley, just turned 29 and received a four-year, $92 million deal from the Titans.
The comp* is an interesting one:
| Player | Routes | Targets | Receptions | Yards | AVG | TDs | YAC | YAC/REC | Yds/RR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Godwin | 1,705 | 384 | 285 | 3,150 | 11.1 | 10 | 1,495 | 5.2 | 1.85 |
Calvin Ridley | 1,406 | 320 | 197 | 2,671 | 13.6 | 19 | 570 | 2.9 | 1.90 |
*Ridley was suspended for the 2022 season. The stats referenced above are for his 2020, 2021 and 2023 seasons.
Ridley has been more efficient and a better scorer, but Godwin has been more available and has better volume stats.
An extension for Godwin with the Bucs is unlikely. They have big money tied up in Baker Mayfield, Evans, Vita Vea and Jamel Dean and future long-term commitments set to be paid to Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr. Additionally, the team’s pact with Evans reset the financial pecking order between he and Godwin with Evans earning $500k more per season. The team is not likely to give Godwin a new deal that places him above Evans. And Godwin could fetch more than $20.5 million per year on a new deal.
Extension Projection: Three-years, $63 million $45 million fully gtd
Be sure to check back in the coming days and weeks for more extension projections.
