The Bucs want to extend Tristan Wirfs, here's what his new contract would look like
The biggest waves of NFL free agency have passed, but there are still plenty of players that could receive new/big deals in the form of contract extensions.Dozens of guys are either entering the final year -or penultimate year- of their current contract and they've played so well that their respective squad is looking to go […]
The biggest waves of NFL free agency have passed, but there are still plenty of players that could receive new/big deals in the form of contract extensions.
Dozens of guys are either entering the final year -or penultimate year- of their current contract and they've played so well that their respective squad is looking to go ahead and extend them, anyway.
A to Z Sports has come up with our own extension projections for said players this offseason. Whether the extensions happen or not remains to be seen, but at least you'll have a viable resource to rely on during the time being.
So, without further ado, let's check out what an extension for Tampa Bay Buccaneers left tackle, Tristan Wirfs, would look like.
Extension Projection for Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs
From just about the moment he stepped into the National Football League, Tristan Wirfs has been a top 5-10 tackle. That’s quite the accomplishment, as he plays a position that usually requires a year or two before players reach their highest level of play. Wirfs did not need that learning curve.
His rookie season, he played 20 games, including the playoffs. Over that time, he allowed just one sack and 24 total pressures across 851 pass block attempts per Pro Football Focus. This resulted in a pressure rate of just 2.82%. That ranked fourth among all tackles that year, with Wirfs logging more pass block snaps than any other tackle in the league.
Since that year, Wirfs has cemented himself as a premier tackle and just last year he made the transition from the right to the left side, taking away the only possible deterrent to him getting a market-setting deal (left tackles still out-earn right tackles by about 13% at the top of their respective markets).
As a pro, Wirfs has a career 2.21% pressure rate allowed, while only surrendering 69 pressures and 12 sacks over 3,125 pass block snaps. He has never registered a pass block grade of less than 80.0 per PFF. And while his run block grades haven’t been quite to the level of his pass protection, they are still very good in their own right (ranging from 64.6 to 77.1 over his four seasons in the league). He has played 63 of a possible 67 regular season games with an extra eight playoff games on top of that.
Wirfs also has three Pro Bowls and an All-Pro nod over his first four years in the league. How does this all compare to the current highest-paid left tackles in football? Here are his credentials against the top-five paid left tackles over the four years prior to each signing their current contracts:
| Player | Start % | Pressure rate allowed | Weighted PFF run grade | Pro Bowls | 1st Team All-Pro | 2nd Team All-Pro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tristan Wirfs | 94.03% | 2.21% | 71.8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Laremy Tunsil | 75.76% | 3.46% | 59.4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Andrew Thomas* | 88% | 5.35% | 72.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Trent Williams | 57.81% | 4.62% | 81.3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Dion Dawkins | 94.03% | 4.45% | 66.9 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Jake Matthews | 100% | 3.78% | 60.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Within this group, Wirfs fares very well. His three Pro Bowls and first team All-Pro put him at the front of the group. But even more crucially, he easily outpaces everyone in pressure rate allowed, while tying with Dawkins for the second-best availability rate.
All of these metrics point to Wirfs re-setting the left tackle market, which is currently topped by Tunsil's three-year, $75 million extension that included $50 million fully guaranteed. That seems to be the floor for Wirfs' likely extension with the Bucs.
Tunsil cleared Williams’ previous top-of-the-market APY by just under $2 million last year. His APY represented 11.1% of that year’s cap, but was actually 0.5% less than Williams’ deal as the percentage of cap in year signed. Wirfs should aim to hit this range as a percentage of the 2024 NFL salary cap, which is set at $255.4 million. That would put his APY in the range of $28 – $29.5 million. That jump seems a bit high for a new market-setting deal.
The Bucs have also had a knack for simultaneously paying their players while still getting small discounts. They have been able to do this with Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, the recently-traded Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean. Wirfs may be the next in that line. At a $27.5 million, APY he could reset the market by a cool 10% while still coming in with an APY that represents 10.7% of this year’s cap. That rate would be less than Tunsil and Williams’ deals at the time of their signings, while only coming in a hair above Thomas’ contract.
With the salary cap growing by leaps and bounds, the new trend for players is to take medium-term deals of three to four years, rather than the long-term deals of yore. This gives the players multiple bites at the apple as it were. Wirfs is entering his age 25 season. A three-year extension would allow him to re-enter the market heading into his age 29 season and set him up for one more large payday.
Extension Projection: Three years, $82.5 million – $53.5 million Fully Guaranteed
Be sure to check back in the coming days and weeks for more extension projections.
