Projecting Baker Mayfield's contract for 2024 NFL free agency

The NFL's regular season is over, which for most teams, means it's time to start figuring out plans for the offseason.NFL free agency is a huge part of the process, and along with the NFL Draft, it has everyone preparing for what should be a very active couple of months. We've officially come up with […]

Josh Queipo
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Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL's regular season is over, which for most teams, means it's time to start figuring out plans for the offseason.



NFL free agency is a huge part of the process, and along with the NFL Draft, it has everyone preparing for what should be a very active couple of months.

We've officially come up with our own contract projections for the NFL's top free agents that include context behind each player's 2023 season, the likelihood of a franchise tag, the projection itself, and the first-year cap hit for a team that's “all-in” and is needing to reduce that first-year hit in order to maximize their cap dollars.

So, without further ado, let's check out the projection for Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback, Baker Mayfield.

Baker Mayfield 2024 Contract Projection

baker mayfield
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Mayfield bet on himself in 2023, signing for less guaranteed money than many backups who are less capable than him. His reasoning was that he wanted a legitimate chance at starting to re-establish himself as one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL. Tampa Bay afforded him that opportunity with a talented, but underestimated surrounding cast. The results have been about as good as Mayfield could have hoped for.

Mayfield is top-10 in the NFL in touchdowns while limiting his interceptions to less than 12 this year and re-kindled the discussions over whether his ceiling as a quarterback is that of a top-10 guy in the NFL. He is top-5 in average depth of target while maintaining a league-average turnover-worthy play rate. He has done all of this without the aid of his deep ball, but by legitimately improving how well he works the intermediate part of the field.

All of this puts him on a trajectory to earn a mid-tier deal that will most likely work off the original model set by Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina in 2020 and then updated by Geno Smith and the Seahawks in 2022.

  • Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
  • 3 years $82.5M, $27.5M APY, $32.5M Fully Gtd
  • Year One Cap Hit: $12.5 million

Be sure to check back in and around the site for more projections, as we will add more in the coming days and weeks.

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