NFL report reveals key indicators are Brian Callahan's saving grace over Titans' catastrophic issues in 2024

What Tennessee Titans brass is looking at when they say ‘the team has improved’.

Easton Freeze — Tennessee Titans Beat Writer
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Sep 30, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA;Tennessee Titans head coach Brian Callahan watches from the sideline against the Miami Dolphins during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Tennessee Titans are expected to be keeping Brian Callahan and much of his staff for the 2025 season, Ian Rapoport reported Saturday morning. This is more of a reassurance than it is news, but one particular line included in his report turned the heads of many Titans fans.

"Internally, there is a feeling Callahan has shown long-term promise and the team has improved" Rapoport said in his explanation of what he has heard. The reaction from many on social media was along the lines of "what could Titans brass possibly be looking at to make them think this?!".

The answer to that question is actually many key underlying metrics that you may be surprised to learn are improved this season. So the question then becomes why these improvements haven't mattered in terms of win, losses, and overall competitiveness. And that answer is about at simple as it gets.

So let's look at what the people in charge of Brian Callahan's employment are seeing when they review the production of this team.

Where The Titans Have Improved

Believe it or not, the Titans have improved since the 2023 season in many statistical categories. We're focusing on offense here of course, as the question of Brian Callahan's success is primarily involving the offensive side of the ball. Let's look at the some comparisons year-over-year (Weeks 1-16):

Points/game has marginally increased from 18.27ppg to 18.93ppg. Yards/game has gone from 293.3 to 301.4. They've allowed 9 less sacks, 21 less QB hits, 11 less hurries, and 50 fewer pressures. Completion percentage has gone up from 61% to 63.3%. They've created 6 more explosive passing plays while managing just 1 fewer explosive running play without Derrick Henry. Their 3 & Out rate has gone down marginally from 34.8% to 34.7%, and their 3rd down conversion rate is up from 33.9% to 37.1%. Finally, their redzone TD rate is up from 45.5% to 56.1%.

So the Titans have improved in a handful of meaningful areas when you compare full seasons. But let's go one step further and compare the back halves of each season. This is the part of the year in which teams are expected to really be rounded into form and playing their best football, especially teams with a new head coach finding their bearings.

Most of those same metrics are more dramatically improved when you compare Weeks 9-16:

  • PPG- up from 17.75 to 20.5
  • YPG- up from 290.4 to 318.8
  • 4 fewer sacks
  • 11 fewer QB hits
  • 31 fewer hurries (~4 less each game)
  • 49 fewer pressures (~6 less each game)
  • 3 more explosive passes, same number of explosive runs
  • 3 & Out rate- down from 33.3% to 31.8%
  • 3rd down conv%- up from 34% to 42.6%
  • Redzone TD rate- up from 54.5% to 57.1%

So this idea that the Titans haven't improved in any way simply isn't true. That's not to say that these metrics matter as much or more than wins and losses, because of course they don't. But they're the kind of stable metrics that are "stickier" over the long term for an offense. They're a reflection of the underlying process, which is what matters to Titans brass.

So now we must answer why none of these things have mattered when it comes to improving general competitiveness. The answer is, well, three other statistics.

Why None Of It Has Mattered

Turnovers, pressure-to-sack ratio, penalties, and turnovers. These are the things that have completely neutered the Titans offense this year, rendering everything else meaningless in terms of winning.

And yes, turnovers are on the list twice. Because really, you can point to turnovers alone as the thing that has killed this team singlehandedly. They've given the ball away nearly twice as much this year as they did in 2023!

Believe it or not, if you filter out turnovers from every team this season, the Titans go from a bottom-10 offense by most metrics to a top-8-to-14 offense, depending on what stats you're focusing on. The difference between this team being a fringe top-10 offense and being a bottom-10 offense can almost be explained by turnovers alone.

Turnovers are a finicky thing. In terms of overall ball security, turnovers are heavily impacted by luck and aren't the stickiest statistic. They're a poor predictor long-term. Turnovers come and go.

From an individual standpoint, certain players can absolutely be turnover prone. And Will Levis, I shouldn't have to tell you, is a very turnover-prone player. Mason Rudolph has been this season as well at times, just slightly less so. The turnover handicap the Titans QB room has put on this team has been borderline terrorism. And that's in part why the #1 focus this offseason, as mentioned in Rapoport's article, is addressing the QB position.

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