The Plan Is Actually Shedeur: Titans process can only lead to Shedeur Sanders being the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft despite media misdirection
Tennessee is about to get its next franchise QB
The Tennessee Titans are going to draft Cam Ward with the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
With less than a month until draft day, that’s the consensus expectation. In the past three weeks it’s something I’ve implied, assumed, and alluded to many times. So let me put it plainly: the plan is Cam.
After the combine in February, it was a lean. After Ward's 30 visit one week later, it was an expectation. After free agency, it felt like a lock. And now his pro day, private workout, and the owners meetings have done well to erase any remaining doubts.
I’m not somebody who likes to speak in absolutes. In the NFL, even the most concrete plans can change overnight. There’s still a scenario in which a dramatic and fundamental change occurs before the Titans turn in their card. Something along the lines of a team proposing a record-shattering trade that was never on the table before, or something somehow showing up in Ward’s medical or personal background that changes the picture entirely; in other words, things that are extremely unlikely to happen.
There are plenty of reasons both public and private for why I’m confident Cam Ward will be a Titan. But this situation lays out how thorough the Titans process has been in landing their franchise QB.
The Media’s Murky Narrative
There are still a lot of people both online and in daily life who ask me: is Cam the pick? Is he still the pick after this new report? How confident are you that Cam is the pick?
And I don’t blame those people. They’re well-adjusted adults with far more important things to do than pay attention to every single little shred of the draft news cycle. And the messaging from our biggest news sources is still intentionally vague. On the day this article was written, I got an ESPN notification that read “Titans undecided at No. 1”.
The biggest insiders in NFL media have gone on television practically every day preaching the fact that the Titans simply aren’t there yet on a decision, and that they remain open for business at 1 overall.
And the media availability that Mike Borgonzi, Brian Callahan, and Chad Brinker have done in recent days has maintained a disciplined set of talking points that echo this sentiment: we’re still working on it, and we (still) have it narrowed down to five options: Ward, Sanders, Carter, Hunter, or a trade.
So why should we already be so confident that it’s going to be Ward?
Think Horses, Not Zebras
If you’ve ever watched a medical drama on TV, you might have heard a doctor repeat the line “when you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.” In other words, when diagnosing a situation, apply Occam’s Razor: the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.
Consider this simple reality: everything the Titans have done this offseason makes perfect sense for an eventual selection of Ward. If he’s not the pick, everything suddenly makes a lot less sense.
Look at free agency, where the emphasis was on reinforcing and completing the offensive line. The Titans pre-free agency interest in certain QB markets such as Sam Darnold's was reported on; but after the combine when deals were actually struck, they were never linked to any of the bidding.
The pair of uninspiring quarterback moves they did make paint a picture of setting up a QB room in a familiar, ideal way to insert a rookie star. That rookie, by the way, is somebody they’ve gone out of their way to have as many touch points as possible with: A combine formal meeting, the first 30 visit on his calendar, his pro day, a private workout later that same week, and some additional zoom sessions in the near future. Nobody else in this draft class has received that level of attention from them. As we originally shared last week, even Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter aren’t getting that maximum level of attention at their pro day coming up. Neither Brian Callahan nor Chad Brinker will make that trip.
Consider who made the trip down to Miami to see him: practically everybody employed by the organization. The list of public attendees at the pro day was lengthy. The entire front office leadership, head coach, offensive coordinator, QB coach, in-house media, and the video team all went down for it.
Then for his private workout, every team official returned with one very notable addition: Controlling Owner Amy Adams Strunk. She went down to meet the player she plans to soon root on as the face of the franchise. NFL owners don’t typically make a habit of meeting with prospects ahead of the draft unless they expect to take them. Her trip and introduction to Cam went very well.
Consider the behavior of the teams who could possibly come up to take Ward at 1: the Giants signed both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston within the past two weeks. Their GM, Joe Schoen, was reportedly speaking like a man who would be drafting a non-QB on Day 1 at the owners meetings.
Meanwhile, the Browns have been spending time with Abdul Carter, and Head Coach Kevin Stefanski said at the owners meetings that they are “unlikely” to trade up for Ward.
And finally, consider the talking points of the Titans staff themselves this week. Talk of being “open for business” has largely subsided, suddenly replace by “we’re close and will come to a decision in about two weeks”. They’re even saying things like "there isn’t a price you put on a franchise QB in the draft". They’re getting awfully close to full-on winking and nodding.
But that raises a new question: if their plan is already to pick Ward, what’s with the song and dance? Why not just come out and say it?
Staying True To The Process
This question was asked explicitly of Brian Callahan at the owners meetings, and what he said boils down to trusting the process.
When the Titans set out on their draft evaluation process this offseason, it was a clear three-stage plan. Here’s it is in it's simplest form:
- Watch ~3 games of every player in the draft before the combine, set the board vertically
- Do combine meetings and some 30 visits
- Make initial free agency moves
- Watch ~3 more games of every player, adjust the board accordingly
- Do more 30 visits, attend pro days and private workouts
- Round out more free agency signings
- Watch ~3 more games of every player, this time setting the board horizontally
That entire process wraps up about two weeks before draft day. The film circuit is finished, every report is finalized, and every critical pro day is attended. The board is set. Then, that’s when every department on both the coaching and front office side comes together for their final draft gameplan meetings.
Put another way, that’s when they’ll start actually using Cam’s name around the building instead of winks, nods, and knowing looks.
Being A Good Steward Of The League
There’s one final reason why all of this funny little circus goes on, and that’s to appease the shield. The league office is interested in doing what’s best for one thing: the bottom line. And the bottom line during draft season is driven by intrigue, which culminates in their big hundred-million-dollar television show in late April.
The Titans are not an organization interested in bucking what the league office wants. They want to be good soldiers. And in this case, that means not spoiling the beginning of the show! There are countless TV segments and articles left to write between now and draft day, and it’s best that they can be done under the condition of uncertainty as long as it can be reasonably maintained.
So they’ll do their part to maintain it. But when draft day does come around, the pick is going to be Cam Ward. And it won’t come as a shock to anybody, because he’s the right pick to make.
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