The confusing case of Luther Burden's 2025 NFL Draft stock, unfortunate reality that could lead to frustrating Titans WR decision

Luther Burden’s talent on tape doesn’t match where it seems he might slip in the NFL Draft

Easton Freeze — Tennessee Titans Beat Writer
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Nov 23, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Missouri Tigers wide receiver Luther Burden III (3) reacts after a touchdown against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-Imagn Images
© Matt Bush-Imagn Images

Remember when young Missouri standout WR Luther Burden was talked about like a lock top-10 draft pick?

That was a year ago. Today, the conversation surrounding this future NFL receiver is more complicated. That incredible Sophomore season he put on tape remains, and it’s some of the most exciting tape any player in this draft has. But what’s changed is his draft stock: what was once a lock top-10 pick is suddenly falling out of all the national mocks. Let’s talk about why.

A Confusing Fall

When I turn on the 2023 Luther Burden tape, I see an incredibly gifted NFL receiver. And when I turn on the 2024 tape, I still see that guy! But the circumstances are different. All the flashes remain. The pro upside is undeniable. I know draft analysts who will tell you he’s the most talented receiver in this class not named Travis Hunter, and I don’t think they’re crazy.

But his 2024 tape did take a step back from what we saw a year ago. I see a pretty dysfunctional offensive situation. I see frustrating QB play. And I see a star receiver who who doesn’t always seem completely interested on every play.

That’s where we start to get into the explanation for Burden’s draft stock. As an evaluator and reporter, all I can do is evaluate the player on tape, read the tea leaves from those who are “in the know”, and factor in private conversations of my own from within the league.

And based on that, I can tell you the explanation for Burden’s low stock is basically the same as any 1st round talent who we see mocked much lower than expected: off-field red flags.

Front offices around the league wonder how much of last year he was truly locked in for. They have some questions about the details on the whiteboard.

Unlike other players in the class like EDGE James Pierce whose off-field question marks are common knowledge, these concerns that teams have regarding Burden aren’t widely understood for whatever reason. But they’re real questions many teams have, and it’s the reason you’ve seen Burden fall out of the 1st round in the latest mocks from Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler, Mel Kiper and others. These analysts will talk glowingly about Burden’s game and have him ranked highly on their big boards, because the tape shows an undeniable 1st round talent. But they know how teams are thinking right now, and their mock drafts reflect it.

An Infuriating Scenario

And so we’ll head into draft night with Burden highlighted as a potential fireworks area. If he slides, fan base after fan base will experience the excitement and subsequent letdown of having him available to their team on the board.

Where he ultimately goes is a real crap shoot. All it takes is one team to pull the trigger, and the talent profile justifies a high pick being used on him. But if the national mocks are any indication, his draft floor is pretty low.

One league source I spoke with felt like he'll ultimately be a 1st rounder despite the questions many teams have. The point this person made, which I agree with, is that basically every year these days we're seeing an "extra" receiver or two sneak into the first night. Last year we went into draft day wondering whether Xavier Worthy would come off the board Day 1. He ended up being the 5th of 7 receivers in the first round, followed by Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Leggette!

However, another league source told me they won't be surprised one bit if Burden is still on the board at the beginning of Day 2. And if that's the case, it's not out of the realm of possibility whatsoever that we see Burden available to the Titans at pick 35.

Here is where the potentially infuriating situation arises. Because, frankly, I think the Titans would seriously consider passing on Burden like the 34 teams before them, especially if a good EDGE player was available. That's not an unlikely scenario, and so it raises the question: How upsetting would it be to see the Titans pass on Luther Burden for Donovan Ezeiruaku? Nic Scourton? J.T. Tuimoloau? Princely Umanmielen?

That's the crop of players we're talking about at 35. And when I ran a deeply scientific poll on twitter asking this question, the results were pretty definitive. Over 60% of the 1000+ respondents fell somewhere between annoyed and furious. Over 85% of respondents would at the very least find the move confusing. less than 15% of people said they'd be understanding of it.

Me? I'd understand it. But the knowledge of what Burden could become in the right situation in the NFL would bother me until the day we learned once and for all it was the right decision to pass on him. If they passed and he reached his potential, it would have the potential to be one of the great draft mistakes in Titans history.

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