The NFL Draft is, in large part, all about value added. Every front office is trying to maximize the value of their picks, but they don’t all approach the exercise in the same way. Plenty of teams demonstrate each year the overwhelming self-confidence they have in their scouting and development process.

Pride Comes Before The Fall In The Draft

There was no bigger example of this than the Jaguars and rookie GM James Gladstone trading up in the 1st Round for Travis Hunter. As Gladstone said to the press after the move, “when there’s an opportunity to be bold, we’re not going to flinch.” At the very beginning of the 34 year old’s first ever draft as GM, he certainly walked that walk. And as big a fan of Travis Hunter’s NFL prospects as I am—which is to say, very big—history still tells us this is the kind of move that is a losing proposition more times than not.

Self-certainty is the cardinal sin of NFL drafting. Scouting 101 clearly states you should fall in like with prospects, but never in love. Every draft study ever conducted seems to wind up back at the same fundamental truth: the most consistent source of value is found in preying on the overconfidence of others, instead of relying on your own to work out. So smart teams tend to trade back, add swings, and find high-level traits later in the draft. That last part is easier said than done, of course. If elite traits are available further down the board, there’s always some sort of a catch. And teams who bet on those players—such as the Titans on the first two days of this draft—have to be comfortable with that.

Different Kinds Of Hidden Value

The Titans selected QB Cam Ward, EDGE Femi Oladejo, and S Kevin Winston Jr. in the first three rounds of the draft. All of these players have something in common: Tennessee sees them as stocks who aren’t yet near their full potential.

Yes, they’re high on them already. And these guys will be expected to contribute as rookies. But Titans brass made it clear throughout the draft process: they’re most focused on what these guys offer 2-3 years into their rookie contracts. And they ultimately view this roster as a 2-3 year rebuild. That’s the timetable they’re most concerned with.

Kevin Winston is a player who, according to many evaluators including Nick Saban on the draft broadcast, would’ve been a 1st round talent had he not suffered a partial ACL tear in his final season. At 6’1 215lbs, Winston’s large frame combined with his raw athleticism is a defensive coordinator’s dream at safety. Especially in this modern era where the lines between playing strong and free safety are blurred, and the best athletes at the position can be used as versatile defensive weapons. Winston’s knee, by all indications, is healing well and on schedule. He suffered the injury in the fall and was already running a 4.51 40-yard dash at his pro day in March.

Femi Oladejo is a value in a different way. It wasn’t until a couple games into his final college season that UCLA decided he was miscast at standup linebacker, and got his hand in the dirt to rush him off the line. He has just 10 games under his belt at the position he quickly demonstrated he can play at a high NFL level, and he’s another athlete you can’t help but like on paper. At 6’3 259lbs, he’s got prototypical size, speed, burst and bend for a well-rounded NFL EDGE. Agree with them or not, he’s somebody the Titans think would be a 1st round talent if he had gone back to school an additional year and more than doubled his sample size at his true position. They see him as a stock that has the potential to soar, and the time to buy a ticket on this ride is now.

And finally, Cam Ward fits this bill in a way as well. No, he’s not ever going to prove to be worth more than the 1st overall selection. There’s no such thing as a value pick when you’re selecting there! But he’s another player Tennessee sees on a clear upward trajectory. Cam isn’t like most NFL quarterbacks; the passer academy type, groomed since the age of 10 to be a technical passing machine.

Ward is someone who has really only been playing serious, pro-style QB for a handful of years at this point. And as he’s transitioned between systems, programs, and levels of competition, he’s shown impressive improvement every step along the way.

All told, the Titans think the best is yet to come from their top 3 draft picks. They see three 1st round caliber prospects that they got in the top-100, and there are plausible cases to be made for each in that regard. Now, they’re charged with enabling them to reach that potential.

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