NASHVILLE — The Tennessee Titans have a lot of work to do on their roster and a big decision to make with the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

The 2024 Titans fell short in a lot of areas. The offensive line was a problem. The quarterback play was nowhere near good enough. And according to analytics expert Aaron Shatz, the special teams unit was one of the worst he’s ever seen.

Shatz, who is known as the father of football analytics, did an interview from radio row at Super Bowl LIX with 3HL on 104.5 The Zone. As Shatz dove into the details and purpose behind DVOA (defense adjusted value over average), he also explained the big analytics question the Titans will need to answer about the first overall pick.

If the Titans were looking at the pick from an analytics lens, it might push them towards making a controversial draft pick. 

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Positional Value of a QB

Positional value is everything. Do the Titans take a quarterback just because of need and the impact a good one can have on your team? How does Tennessee view Travis Hunter and does his positional versatility make him more valuable than a normal prospect?

Shatz believes Tennessee has no option but to look at Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, even in a weak QB draft class. 

"Obviously, it's a really hard decision what to do with the first pick,. The sense from analytics is when you have a shot at a quarterback, you need to take a quarterback," Shatz told 3HL. "[Will] Levis, after a couple of years, we've learned that he's not the guy. The efficiency is just not there."

"When you have the number one pick and there's a quarterback, you even have to reach for the quarterback. I realize that people don't think of [Cam] Ward and [Shedeur] Sanders as as good as the quarterbacks that were taken last year. But that position, in terms of positional importance, you've got to take that chance."

I have long believed that Abdul Carter was a viable option for Tennessee at first overall because of the Titans' clear need for an impactful edge rusher. But Shatz thinks the only non-quarterback that Tennessee would take is Travis Hunter. 

"The only reason you might debate [taking a QB] is…what can Travis Hunter do? is Travis Hunter more than one player? Because then Travis Hunter might be as valuable as a quarterback and that's an interesting question," said Shatz. "What if you have a wide receiver that you can also make him your dime cornerback on 3rd and 10s? What's the value of that? It's an interesting question that I'm sure the Titans' analytics department is working on very heavily."

The Titans have been historically behind the rest of the pack in making analytical advancements. But in recent years, there has been a more concerted effort in Nashville to get a leg up in analytics. It's the expertise of President of Football Operations Chad Brinker, who has hired an analytics team to help solve these very problems. 

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Part of the reason the Titans decided to split traditional GM responsibilities between Brinker and GM Mike Borgonzi while also bringing in Dave Ziegler and Reggie McKenzie to the front office is to streamline roles and put more intention into areas like analytics.

It will be fascinating to see how heavily it is weighed when the Titans go on the clock in April.

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