Titans hope familiarity with free agent signing Wan’Dale Robinson overcomes ugly history of highly-paid receivers on the open market

Free agency is an exercise in overpaying at the top of the market. The Titans hope their latest addition of Wan’Dale Robinson can be the exception to an ugly history.

Easton Freeze — Tennessee Titans Beat Writer
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The worst kept secret of free agency is finally out of the bag, as the Titans are signing former Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson. He comes in at $19.5 million AAV on a 4yr/$78 million deal, with $38 million guaranteed.

As is the nature of free agency, this is an overpay. There are no two ways about it. And it’s a good bit higher than the misguided $15 million AAV number being floated by many in the days leading up to free agency. But while I do not approve of this move from a process standpoint, there are some legitimate reasons to believe this signing can be an exception in the graveyard of high-dollar free agency WR signings.

Wan’Dale Robinson’s unique value must overcome his hefty price tag

I like Wan’Dale Robinson the player. So does OC Brian Daboll, clearly, as he brings him back into his offensive fold here in Tennessee. Robinson was drafted by the Giants during Daboll’s tenture as head coach, and found success in his specific offense. So the typical unknown associated with free agency signings when it comes to fit is entirely out of the question here, which is really reassuring! And Daboll’s offense is known for featuring a lot from the slot. So I don’t doubt Robinson will get a workload worthy of a big contract.

I’m quite confident Robinson will be a significant impact in this Titans offense, as he immediately raises it’s floor in a big way. He is coming off of a career year, posting 1014 yards on 92 receptions. He’s cleared the 90 reception bar two seasons in a row, simultaneously proving to his haters that he’s a volume merchant while proving to his supporters that he can handle being a big time possession receiver.

He has missed just three games in the past three years. So his availability, his youth at a freshly-minted 25 years old, and his familiarity with Daboll are the reasons I can get behind him being a really promising addition.

I cannot, however, support the money or the process involved here. I am a bit of a premium position purist when it comes to the draft and free agency, and with wide receiver in particular, history is not kind to deals struck in this tax bracket. I’d rather take a new receiver somewhere in the first four rounds of the draft each year and take free agency off.

Nearly $20 million AAV is really steep for a slot WR2 like Robinson projects to be, even if he is likely to see a lot of volume. I will give Mike Borgonzi a nod on the guarantees front, because $38 million is easier to stomach. For reference, Calvin Ridley’s contract in 2024 was 4yr/$92 million ($23 million AAV) with a $46 million fully guaranteed.

Far be it from me to pocket watch, I’m happy as a clam for Wan’Dale getting his life-changing money. And I hope his contributions to this team in the coming years defy the odds and prove more than worthy of this cap allocation. But that’s the lens through which you have to view these moves from a team building process standpoint, and the history on these moves is bleak. the aforementioned Ridley is one of those unfortunate contracts in hindsight. Others in this range include Christian Kirk to Jacksonville and Kenny Golladay to New York.

Even Stefon Diggs, who reached the Super Bowl as a 1000 yard receiver for the Patriots last year, was a $21.1 million AAV guy on a three year deal who was cut after just one. That’s the best case success story we have in recent history. Because team’s don’t let great receivers reach free agency, but we hand out huge money to the players who do make it anyways.

Where does this put Robinson in the grand scheme of the league? By my count, at the time of writing, there are 25 receivers making $20 million AAV or more. Then there is a tier-break, with the next crop of guys coming in at $17.5 million or less. This Robinson contract settles in at 26th, between the likes of Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, and Jakobi Meyers on the higher end, and Jerry Jeudy and Cooper Kupp on the low end.

Now, Titans, go draft a guy or two.

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