Rejoice, the 2024 NFL season is upon us!

And in Week 1, rookie Head Coach Brian Callahan is taking his revamped Titans team to Chicago to face rookie Quarterback Caleb Williams and the Bears. It’s a rookie-on-rookie battle, which you may be surprised to learn is extremely rare in recent history.

Whether you’re calling the shots on the sideline or in the huddle, everybody’s NFL debut is a trial by fire. Not to spoil the entire article, but rookie coaches and quarterbacks alike have been historically likely to lose on their first try.

But who has been worse? And what has happened when a rookie QB and rookie HC faced off?

I compiled every such outcome since 2000. An important disclaimer here: wins are not, in fact, a quarterback stat. But there is no debating the player on the field with the largest impact on winning is the QB. So for the sake of this exercise, we’re going to discuss both coaches and quarterbacks in the reductive context of wins and losses.

Rookie Coaches

Let’s start with the coaches. Since 2000, there have been 108 different first-time NFL coaches hired in the offseason–I’ve excluded midseason interims for cleanliness. Overall, they’ve gone 42-66 in Week 1 debuts, a lousy .389 win percentage. In just the past decade, it’s been a tad better: 19-26 (.422).

But rookie passers have been significantly worse.

Rookie Quarterbacks

Since 2000, a total of 114 top-100 draft-pick quarterbacks have gotten their first start as a rookie. They’re a dreadful 26-88 in those 24 years, a win percentage of .228. Granted, a significant portion of these passers didn’t get their first start until deep into the season. Some of them were a highly drafted heir-apparent whose coach was simply waiting for the right time to throw them in the pool.

One could argue that QBs such as Eli Manning (Week 11), Jared Goff (11), and JaMarcus Russell (17) were at an advantage in their opener because of that extra time to develop behind the scenes… though these three 1st-overall pick examples all lost in their debut anyways.

But plenty of other quarterbacks on this list had to start a game in their rookie season because of an injury to the real starter before their coaches would’ve preferred to see them out there. So let’s whittle this list down to just Week 1 starters, which Williams will be.

While this removed over half of the sample size, Week 1 starters haven’t had much more luck. 10-30 is their record since 2000, a win percentage of .250.

The most recent history has been even less favorable. The past nine Week 1 rookie starters have gone home without a win. The most recent victor was Sam Darnold, whose Jets thrashed Matt Patricia’s Lions 48-17 on opening weekend.

And if we focus on just the cream of the crop–top 10 draft picks–things only get marginally better once again: 11-26-1 (.297).

Perhaps the most damning way to frame this research for Caleb Williams is filtering by 1st-overall picks. There have been 17 such quarterbacks since 2000, and only 2 of them won in their debut.

By the way, those two were David Carr in 2002 and Michael Vick in 2001.

Every 1st overall QB since them–Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Bryce Young–lost their first game. The only exception is Kyler Murray, who managed a tie.

Now, it’s only fair to point out some context in favor of Caleb Williams heading into this particular rookie debut. For starters, you can easily argue he’s much more than your run-of-the-mill rookie QB. Plenty of NFL evaluators would take him over anybody listed above, save perhaps Andrew Luck. He very well might be Good™️ out of the gate.

And perhaps even more importantly, he probably has a better situation than any of these other 1st overall picks ever did in year 1. The team drafting 1st is almost always a dumpster fire… unless you have the pick in a trade like Chicago did.

So Caleb gets to join an ascending roster with an established coaching staff. He’s got formidable weapons at his disposal and a real defense who isn’t likely to constantly hang him out to dry. This stuff matters.

Rookie Quarterbacks vs. Rookie Coaches

Finally, how about previous meetings between a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback? How did those turn out?

This was the most surprising element of my research. When Brian Callahan and Caleb Williams meet on Sunday, it will be just the ninth time a rookie QB faced a rookie HC in their debut since 2000. Here are all eight previous instances:

• 2021, Week 1: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) loses to David Culley (HOU) 21-37
• 2018, Week 1: Sam Darnold (NYJ) wins against Matt Patricia (DET) 48-17
• 2017, Week 17: Patrick Mahomes (KC) wins against Vance Joseph (DEN) 27-24
• 2016, Week 3: Cody Kessler (CLE) loses to Adam Gase (MIA) 24-30
• 2016, Week 11: Jared Goff (LAR) loses to Adam Gase (MIA) 10-14
• 2011, Week 3: Blaine Gabbert (JAX) loses to Ron Rivera (CAR) 10-16
• 2006, Week 16: Tarvaris Jackson (MIN) loses to Mike McCarthy (GB) 7-9
• 2003, Week 14: Dave Ragone (HOU) loses to Jack Del Rio (JAX) 0-27

Overall, rookie quarterbacks debuting against rookie coaches are 2-6. It’s too small a sample size by itself to base anything on. But combined with the lengthy track record of all rookie coach and quarterback debuts, it paints a clear picture: rookie QBs are certainly less likely to win their first game than rookie coaches.

On Sunday, Brian Callahan will look to further drive that point home. And Caleb Williams will try to prove he really is the exception.