The Commanders have a clear advantage over the Raiders with one game-deciding factor, but it won’t come easy this Sunday
The Commanders have to commit to this advantage over the Raiders.
You have to find your advantages within the matchups, and the Washington Commanders have one major one over the Las Vegas Raiders that they need to commit to.
The Commanders’ offense has struggled, especially in the passing game, and they need to get back to establishing the run regardless of who plays quarterback on Sunday. The Raiders have struggled to run the ball, while the Commanders have shown they can do it when they actually try to. There’s one thing that might throw a wrench in their plans, though.
A clear advantage
Both the Commanders and the Raiders struggled to get anything going in the passing game, and quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Geno Smith both had their worst games in a long time. The best way to fix that is by setting the tone and mixing things up in the run game, but these are two completely different teams in the run game.
The Commanders are one of the most effective run offenses in the league, even though they got away from it last week with only 12 carries by a running back. Things will be changing up with Austin Ekeler out for the season, but rookie Bill Croskey-Merritt still leads all rookie running backs with 99 yards on only 14 carries. Meanwhile, the Raiders can’t run the ball to save their life, even with rookie Ashton Jeanty having 30 carries this season; he still has fewer yards than Croskey-Merritt.
The Raiders have the highest percentage of runs stuffed for no gains in the league at 37.1%. That’s an absolute drive killer for an offense, and forces Smith to throw the ball way too many times. They’re also dead last in yards before contact per RB carry at -.23 yards, meaning they’re, on average, hit before the line of scrimmage on every carry, forcing them to fight for every yard.
Two stout run defenses
The counterpoint for the Raiders, however, is that they have a top run defense in the league right now through two weeks. They’re first in EPA per rush, third in stuffed run percentage, and fifth best in yards allowed before contact at only .42 yards.
The Commanders can stop the run as well, and ranked eighth in yards allowed before contact, so it’s not an ideal matchup for a bad Raiders’ rushing attack that struggles to get past the line of scrimmage.
This will be a big test for the Commanders’ run offense, but they have to get back to establishing the run, and that’s on Kliff Kingsbury this week. Give Croskey-Merritt as many opportunities to succeed as possible until he shows you otherwise. We already know the Raiders have the worst run offense in the league, and the Commanders can dictate the pace of the game with a rushing attack of their own if they can get through the Raiders’ run defense.
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