There’s a big misunderstanding surrounding Cowboys vs. Vikings, and Dak Prescott needs to overcome it
The battle that will define the outcome of Cowboys vs. Vikings in Week 15.
The Dallas Cowboys were beat last week because they couldn’t protect Dak Prescott. Now they need to prove they can.
In Week 15, the Minnesota Vikings defense will bring the heat. For the 6-6-1 Cowboys, it’s a must-win matchup to keep their postseason hopes alive. And it all starts with beating one of the top defensive minds in the NFL: Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Dak Prescott vs. Brian Flores will be a war
Though Dak Prescott wasn’t blitzed very often by the Detroit Lions, the offense struggled to keep the quarterback clean. The Cowboys gave up five sacks and the passing game was consistently in trouble because of it.
On Sunday night, the Cowboys’ pass protection will be challenged once again. This time, by the Minnesota Vikings. And though many know this will be a tough matchup, I’m not sure it’s clear why it will be so challenging.
That’s because when football fans think of Brian Flores, they think of blitzing. For years, Flores has become synonymous with aggression. That’s his style of football. And let’s face it, it’s pretty fun to watch. However, that often leads to a couple of misconceptions about the Vikings defense.
Cowboys to face a misunderstood Vikings defense
The first misconception is the idea the Vikings need to blitz to pressure the quarterback. For the Cowboys, that would be ideal if it were true. Prescott is one of the best quarterbacks against the blitz, and he often makes DCs pay the price for making that mistake.
Secondly—and partially related—fans often expect Flores’ defenses to play a lot of man coverage. After all, blitzing often means playing man coverage behind it. But neither of these two things are true about the Vikings defense.
Sure, the Vikings blitz at an NFL-high rate. And they’re successful doing so. But they don’t need to blitz. When they rush four, they rank first in pressure rate around the league, per Sports Info Solutions. Meanwhile, they rank 31st in man coverage rate.
That means even when they blitz, Flores is mostly running zone coverage behind his pressures. That is hard to do at the NFL level, but it’s what’s allowed the Vikings to be the sixth-best pass defense in EPA/play, via RBSDM. Flores achieves all of this with a variety of simulated pressures, disguises, and exotic formations.
This is relevant to the Cowboys for multiple reasons. As pointed out above, Prescott is fantastic versus the blitz, but Flores will have different options to attack and confuse him. That doesn’t mean he won’t blitz Prescott, but he should be able to be selective with it. Especially considering the Cowboys’ tackles can be beat in pass protection, as evidenced by the Lions less than a week ago.
CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens face strong challenge
It also means that the Cowboys will have few opportunities to lean into CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens’ knack for beating man coverage. Pickens and Lamb rank first and second, respectively, in yards against man coverage this season.
And not only that, one of the biggest reasons why Flores runs zone behind his blitzes is to play split-field coverages. While we’re not going to do a deep dive into how those work, what matters is two high safeties should give the Vikings more options to bracket Pickens and Lamb, or to at the very least have help over the top for each.
Two keys to the game for Cowboys offense
With all of the above in mind, here’s what the Cowboys need to come out victorious on Sunday night:
- Pound the rock: The Cowboys’ rushing offense has struggled since the bye week, dropping from 10th in success rate to 24th since then. That has led to third and long situations more often than early in the year, which in turn exposes the team’s pass protection. When the offense was at its best, it faced third and short situations consistently, making life easier on Prescott.
- Keep Prescott clean: When those situations come up, the Cowboys have to block better. It sounds simple but it’s the reality. Many of these broken pass plays are dead from the start because the tackles are getting beat immediately. Perhaps left tackle Tyler Guyton returns from injury ahead of Sunday, which would go a long way.
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The Dallas Cowboys need a favor from an old friend to get into the NFL playoffs, and it’s a giant mystery if he’ll do it
All we can do is wait.
