There's no question that Predators forward Tommy Novak has looked impressive since joining the team this season. He was having a solid season in the AHL with the Milwaukee Admirals before his call up. He even had a great run with the Nashville Predators last season before being added to the COVID-19 protocol and returning to Milwaukee. 

While he's looked good on the ice by scoring some opportunistic goals and creating some great chances for his teammates, the eye-test can be deceiving. Just because a player looks good on the ice doesn't necessarily mean that player is doing all the right things. 

LMAO. I (Rono) always love going through the cards and finding players with great stats, but when I see their name I'm like "What the hell?! Who is it?!". Everyone of them played at least 20 games and they're still so high. But I think it's fluke than about skills so far. pic.twitter.com/JQmKNfITF9

— Rono (@RonoAnalyst) March 8, 2023

This tweet (and chart) from Andy and Rono shows just how effective Tommy Novak has been for the Predators so far this season. Great numbers in offense and transition, two places where the Predators have struggled, certainly help explain why the Predators were so quick to sign him to a contract extension last month. 

As Rono mentions in the tweet, Novak's numbers falling at such an extremely high level can be partially attributed to a small sample size. However, it's important to note that numbers like this aren't possible without some truth behind it.

The most intriguing parts of this chart are the Transition numbers. The Predators have drawn a lot of criticism over the course of the season for ineffective zone entries. Quite often, the team enters the offensive with a dump-in instead of a controlled zone entry. Novak's numbers show his entry passes allow the team to enter the offensive zone with possession at a very high rate. By passing to someone carrying speed toward the blue line, players are able to enter the zone with control. This can also lead to more high-danger shot attempts.

Even though his overall defensive impact is fairly low, the lone outlier is Denials. The ability to deny zone entry is one that's quite beneficial the Predators as well. Anything a team can do to prevent their opponent from entering the zone with control can lead to puck battles. Winning those battles, combined with quick transitions and solid passing, can lead to breakaways and other odd-man rush situations that lead to high-danger scoring chances as well.

Even though the incredibly high numbers may be the result of a smaller sample size, the underlying metrics still add up to good things for Tommy Novak and the Predators. And, with Novak signed for another season and plenty of room opening up at the top of the lineup, look for him to continue making good things happen on the ice. 

–featured image via Sam Navarro/USA Today Sports–