Breaking down the 49ers' most likely first-round picks at each position of need by ESPN analytics
While the San Francisco 49ers still have arguably the best roster in the NFL, they could go in a number of different directions in the first round. Both sides of the trenches, cornerback and wide receiver are all likely in play for the Niners with pick 31, if they stay at that selection. Recently ESPN […]
While the San Francisco 49ers still have arguably the best roster in the NFL, they could go in a number of different directions in the first round.
Both sides of the trenches, cornerback and wide receiver are all likely in play for the Niners with pick 31, if they stay at that selection.
Recently ESPN analytics released its predictor, which rates the players with the best odds of being taken at a certain pick at every position. But the numbers don't necessarily fall in line with what the tape says about those prospects or what the 49ers look for at certain position. How likely is it that the tool is correct? Here I break down each of players with the best odds of going at 31 at every position that could be addressed in the first round.
Offensive Tackle
Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
ESPN rates Guyton as having nearly a five percent chance of being selected at 31, with Jordan Morgan of Arizona the second likeliest selection at San Francisco’s biggest need.
Analysis: The 49ers did not have an interview Guyton at the Combine and are not reported as having hosted a top-30 visit with him. However, there is no doubt he has the movement skills to fit their offensive system. Guyton has experience blocking for both zone and gap scheme runs at Oklahoma and possesses tremendous upside in the former due to the ease with which he gets to the second level and his athleticism in space.
As a pass protector, Guyton wins with extremely efficient footwork and length that consistently allows him to recover when pass rushers initially beat him around the edge. He is a prospect still in need of refinement in terms of his hand usage and in consistently hitting the target at the second level, but the physical traits are so alluring that appears unlikely the 49ers will have the chance to be on them. Expect him to be off the board by the time the 31st pick comes around.
Interior Offensive Line
Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon
Powers-Johnson is given the edge over Graham Barton as the likeliest selection of an interior lineman at 31, the Oregon center rated as having just under a three percent chance of coming off the board at that spot.
Analysis: The 49ers have rarely invested premium resources in the interior offensive line and have never spent a first-round pick on the position under the guidance of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch.
Powers-Johnson projects best as a center at the next level, but could start at right guard, a clear weak spot for the Niners, as a rookie. The 49ers should love the combination of aggression and awareness Powers-Johnson brings. He is a tone-setter who consistently tosses defenders aside with ease and finishes blocks emphatically. However, his physical profile is better suited to a gap scheme and, while that isn’t necessarily a disqualifier for this version of the Niners, history tells us they likely aren’t going to spend a first-rounder on a center who is not a perfect fit for the scheme.
Edge Rusher
Chop Robinson, Penn State
Robinson has over a four percent chance of being selected at 31, putting him narrowly ahead of Missouri’s Darius Robinson.
Analysis: It would be a huge bet on traits by San Francisco, Robinson having demonstrated his incredible athletic prowess at the Combine, where he earned an A to Z Sports athletic composite score of 96.9 percent, the best among all defensive linemen.
Robinson possesses a lightning fast get-off, can translate speed to power with ease and has the ability to bend around the edge and flatten to the quarterback. With fast and active hands and a few go-to moves already in his stable, Robinson possesses a skill set that defensive line coach Kris Kocurek would love to get his hands on.
Kocurek would be the ideal teacher to help give Robinson’s game the refinement it needs, with his lack of production — 9.5 sacks in two seasons at Penn State — the major knock on a player who still has so much room to grow. The problem is that Robinson is given only around a 30 percent chance of still being on the board at 31.
Defensive Tackle
Johnny Newton, Illinois
Newton is seen as the only defensive tackle in play at 31, given a 4.5 percent chance of coming off the board with the penultimate pick in the first round.
Analysis: I had Newton as the 49ers’ first-round selection in a recent mock, and they would likely be jumping for joy if the man regarded as the second-best defensive tackle the entire draft fell to them at that spot.
Newton is an extremely disruptive pass rusher who wins with how he uses his extremely powerful hands and his ability to generate impressive push with a leveraged bull rush when he plays low. With 43 pressures, third among FBS interior defensive linemen in the 2024 draft, and 25 run stops that also ranked third for defensive tackles in the class in 2023, Newton brings an extremely well-rounded skill set that the 49ers would dearly love to get on their front.
Newton would be an ideal prospect for Kocurek to mold while rotating him with veterans Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins. Given over a 40 percent shot of still being on the board at 31, it might not be a pipe dream
Cornerback
Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
A popular selection for the 49ers in mock drafts, McKinstry is rated as the second most likely pick at 31 at any position (more on the person ahead of him shortly). The Alabama corner is given over a seven percent chance of going at 31.
Analysis: Cornerback isn’t a need for right now. The 49ers have a strong starting partnership in Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir and veteran depth in the form of Isaac Yiadom and Rock Ya-Sin. However, the smartest front offices draft a year ahead, and with each of their projected top four corners bound for free agency next year, it would be extremely wise for San Francisco to get a potential star at the position on a cheap contract for as many as five years.
McKinstry would fit the bill perfectly. He is a scheme diverse corner who plays with excellent awareness and eyes to the ball in zone and has the athletic ability and physicality to excel in press-man. He could be a day-one starter for the 49ers, but the luxury for San Francisco is that the Niners don’t need him to be.
Wide Receiver
Adonai Mitchell, Texas
Mitchell is the prospect given the highest chance of being selected at pick 31 of any player in the draft, his odds are at well over seven percent, just ahead of McKinstry.
Analysis: The 49ers could use something different at wide receiver, and Mitchell would certainly give them that. He is a true-ball winner who does a superb job of elevating and attacking the ball at its highest point.
Mitchell blends his natural size advantage at a little over 6ft 2in and 205 pounds with 4.3 speed and impressive change of direction and stop-start quickness for a man of his frame. Yet there are issues that will likely take him out of the conversation for Shanahan. Mitchell’s routes are far too often ran at one speed and without any purpose.
Despite his frame, Mitchell will allow defenders inside his frame to make plays at the catch point and there is limited upside after the catch. Mitchell can make defenders miss but isn’t a consistent threat to do damage with the ball in his hands. The most significant knock against him, though, is that his effort in the blocking game is sporadic at best, and that is one thing Shanahan will not countenance among his receivers.
The analytics may say Mitchell is the most likely pick, Shanahan’s history and what he has traditionally looked for in a wide receiver say different.
49ers add host of impact players despite trading out of first round in mock for 2024 NFL Draft
It could be the smart play.
