Brock Purdy's clear weaknesses are unlikely to impact his 49ers success
In the wake of the 49ers' Week 3 win over the Giants on Thursday, NBC Sports' Peter King had to rail against arguably the most absurd take yet on Brock Purdy and his continued success. Writing on Monday in his Football Morning in America column, it's clear the longtime sportswriter is tired of people trying […]
In the wake of the 49ers' Week 3 win over the Giants on Thursday, NBC Sports' Peter King had to rail against arguably the most absurd take yet on Brock Purdy and his continued success. Writing on Monday in his Football Morning in America column, it's clear the longtime sportswriter is tired of people trying to make arguments for why the Niners' starting quarterback isn't good.
In his ’10 Things I think’ section, King wrote:
"I think, as I said on Mike Florio’s PFT show Friday, that it seems there’s a bunch of people who don’t buy Brock Purdy and who await his failure. You’ll be waiting for a while. Why can’t people accept the fact that Purdy—who has played more than three quarters in 11 NFL games, and is 11-0 in those games—should not be defined by the fact that he was the last pick in the 2022 draft? His passing line in those 11 games: .669 completion rate, 2,021 yards, 20 TDs, 3 INTs, 102.3 rating. I think I’m not saying Purdy’s going to be Mahomes. What I am saying is, where’s the evidence he’s going to fall to earth?"
It's an interesting question to explore. From the raw numbers and the win-loss record, there is no evidence to indicate a drop-off from Purdy.
Yet there are deficiencies in his game, and they have been apparent even as the 49ers have made a 3-0 start to the season.
Purdy's problems
Deep-ball accuracy has been Purdy's biggest problem so far in 2023. He has completed only three of his eight passes of over 20 yards or more this season, though two of those completions have gone for touchdowns. Purdy overthrew his receiver on three long balls in the Week 2 win over the Rams, missing the chance to a turn seven-point win into a blowout.
Purdy isn't an inaccurate quarterback by any stretch, but he can have spells where his precision is lacking, with receivers adjusting to balls throw behind them a common feature of the opening three weeks of the season for the 49ers.
While he has not thrown an interception since the penultimate week of the 2022 regular season, Purdy has shown a tendency to put the ball in harm's way. Per Pro Football Focus, he officially has four turnover-worthy plays in 2023, and had two throws that could have ended in picks on the opening drive against the Giants.
Some of those near-misses are a product of the growing pains Purdy is still going through as a quarterback who is still, relative to most of his contemporaries, very inexperienced at the highest level. However, they are also symptomatic of a style of play that is more adventurous than that of Jimmy Garoppolo and gives the offense more upside than it had with Purdy's predecessor.
And Purdy's weaknesses are largely offset by strengths that have helped elevate the passing game.
Critical strong suits
His deep ball may be inconsistent, but Purdy is exceptional on the intermediate throws that are a staple of the Kyle Shanahan offense.
So far this season, Purdy has completed 19 of his 21 attempts between 10 and 19 yards for 324 yards and two touchdown, good for a passer rating of 150.5 that is second only to Geno Smith (158.3).
Though the accuracy isn't always on point, Purdy regularly negates the impact of off-target balls by delivering them with outstanding anticipation, often releasing the ball before the receiver is even into his break.
For as much as Purdy might have been fortunate to see some of those errant throws not result in a turnover, his most recent performance in primetime was one in which, after some early struggles, he ticked a significant box for an NFL starting quarterback in showing an ability to dice up a blitzing defense as Wink Martindale and the Giants continually threw the kitchen sink at him in Week 3.
Purdy was blitzed on 33 of his 39 dropbacks but went 20 of 31 for 247 yards and two touchdowns when the Giants sent five or more pass rushers, his performance capped by a pinpoint back shoulder deep ball to Deebo Samuel completed with heavy pressure in his face.
He might not have all the tools to become a truly elite quarterback but, between his anticipation, his strength attacking intermediate areas, his playmaking upside and his ability to beat the blitz, Purdy has plenty of traits of a high-end starting quarterback, skills that can make him a long-term success in arguably the NFL's most quarterback-friendly system.
As King states, Purdy isn't Mahomes and the fact is, in the Shanahan offense, he doesn't need to be. Purdy's deficiencies are ones minimized by the scheme in which he plays, and his strengths are enough to raise the ceiling of that system. He might not reach the heights of the best in the game, but a precipitous fall that drastically impacts the 49ers' hopes of contending for a Super Bowl title with Purdy under center is indeed unlikely to come.
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