49ers' Kyle Shanahan is being put on blast for the wrong reason after Super Bowl LVIII loss
With four quarters of football done, Patrick Mahomes and Fred Warner met at midfield of Allegiant Stadium with Super Bowl LVIII exactly as undecided as it was almost three hours earlier. The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers were headed for overtime. An historic one, at that, as the NFL would make use of […]
With four quarters of football done, Patrick Mahomes and Fred Warner met at midfield of Allegiant Stadium with Super Bowl LVIII exactly as undecided as it was almost three hours earlier.
The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers were headed for overtime. An historic one, at that, as the NFL would make use of its new postseason rules, which ensured each team got the ball at least once.
Unprecedented territory will always make for fun and controversial discourse and the Monday hangover reactions haven't disappointed one single bit as 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is being put on blast by many due to his decision to ask for the ball at the start of overtime.
On Sunday, Shanahan's choice led to the Niners settling for three before witnessing Patrick Mahomes take it all away by putting together a 13-play, 75-yard, touchdown drive for a pair of contrasting thirds: The third ring for Mahomes, the third double-digit lead blown by Shanahan in a Super Bowl (including his time as OC for the Atlanta Falcons).
Many have argued that since both teams are guaranteed a possession, then the best idea is to choose to kick it, as it'll give you an information advantage since you'll know what you need. For example, the Niners would've been inclined to go for it on fourth down had they known they needed a touchdown instead of taking the three.
"It's just something we talked about that none of us have a ton of experience of but we went through all the analytics and talked with those guys and we just thought it'd be better, we wanted the ball third ," explained Shanahan to reporters.
"We wanted to be the ones who had the chance chance to go win," he added.
Things have been made a bit more controversial given Andy Reid's explanation that they would've elected to kick had they won the toss. To add fuel to the fire, Chiefs players knew all about the strategy while 49ers players weren't well-informed about the new postseason rules.
Was Kyle Shanahan correct in asking for the ball?
The reality is the answer is a disappointing one: There's not a clearly correct decision here.
Per ESPN's data analytics expert Brian Burke, there's not a clear difference in winning probability whether you decide to kick or receive, as he details in the couple of tweets below.
The reason why is clear: The first team to get the ball has an advantage in that he gets an extra drive if the game is still tied after two possessions. But the second one has an information edge as described above and can choose to go for two after the first drive, turning the tables on the first-possession team.
The math doesn't lie, though, the differences in win probabilities are razor thin in this scenario.
ESPN's Seth Walder said that an anonymous NFL analytics staffer eloquently put it this way: "Anyone that is very confident there is a clear option is probably wrong."
I understand wanting to put Shanahan's work under the microscope for another blown lead in the big game. That's a conversation worth having. But if that's what we're doing, let's make it about his offense going 3-of-12 on third down, getting to the red zone twice, and turning the ball over twice.
49ers’ Kyle Shanahan has a lot of explaining to do regarding a very questionable third quarter game plan
The decision to take the ball out of his best player’s hands was an odd and potentially costly one
