Christian McCaffrey will need help to make the San Francisco 49ers' latest bet on him a success
The San Francisco 49ers have already made one successful bet on Christian McCaffrey. Their trade of four draft picks to land McCaffrey in October 2022 was met with skepticism by many, with ESPN at the time giving the deal a C minus grade that has now become infamous. The 49ers were quickly proven decisively right […]
The San Francisco 49ers have already made one successful bet on Christian McCaffrey.
Their trade of four draft picks to land McCaffrey in October 2022 was met with skepticism by many, with ESPN at the time giving the deal a C minus grade that has now become infamous.
The 49ers were quickly proven decisively right to pay as much as they did for McCaffrey. Ever since his first start for the 49ers in Week 8 of the 2022 season, which saw him score rushing and receiving touchdowns and throw for another in a rout of the Los Angeles Rams, McCaffrey has made a mockery of the idea that San Francisco had taken an expensive risk by investing such significant draft capital to acquire him.
McCaffrey has emphatically vindicated the 49ers' bet on him to stay healthy and produce in their offense with 33 games (regular and postseason), of spectacular play, and he was rewarded on Tuesday as San Francisco doubled down on that bet with a two-year extension for their star tailback worth $19 million a year.
Unlocking new heights
Rather than simply being an extremely talented back thriving because of the genius of Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheme, McCaffrey has proven to be the skeleton key for the 49ers, playing an instrumental role in taking their attack to remarkable new heights.
Since joining the 49ers, McCaffrey has amassed 3,233 scrimmage yards, 389 more than nearest challenger CeeDee Lamb (2,844). His 31 total touchdowns are six more than the next most prolific player, former 49er Raheem Mostert (25). McCaffrey has averaged 119.7 scrimmage yards per game in the regular season in the time following the trade, over 13 more than Justin Jefferson (106.6), who ranks second on the list over the same period.
From the time of his first start (Week 8) to the end of the 2022 regular season, the 49ers ranked second in Expected Points Added per play on offense, per rbsdm.com. They were second in dropback EPA per play and third in rush EPA.
With a full season of both McCaffrey and Brock Purdy in 2023, the results grew more spectacular. They led the NFL in EPA per play (0.179), success rate (51.6%), dropback EPA (0.298) and dropback success rate (55.3%). The 49ers were also first in rush EPA per play (0.034), leading a group of only three teams to finish in positive figures in that metric, and rush success rate (47%). The 49ers were not just first in those stats, they were first by considerable margins in almost every category.
A unique kind of bell cow
Of course, the 49ers' remarkable performance in those metrics since McCaffrey arrived is not solely attributable to him.
Shanahan has long since excelled at coaxing efficient production out of a wide variety of different quarterbacks and skill position players during his phenomenal career, and Purdy is obviously deserving of a massive amount of credit for how he has elevated the passing game with processing, downfield ability and playmaking prowess that is far superior to predecessor Jimmy Garoppolo.
At the same time, the 49ers clearly would not have accessed the levels they did in 2023 without McCaffrey, who led the NFL in rushing with 1,459 yards and was second in the NFL behind only Lamar Jackson with 5.4 yards per attempt while carrying the ball 272 times.
Only Derrick Henry (280) had more regular-season carries. Despite his heavy workload, McCaffrey was still seventh in success rate (54%) among running backs. Per Sports Info Solutions, he was third in positive play rate (47.4%) among backs with at least 100 carries. He was first in first down rate (30.5%).
In addition to serving as a hugely efficient bell-cow, McCaffrey has been key to the transformation of the 49er passing game, with his huge upside as a checkdown option and his ability to excel as a receiver out of the backfield and in the formation crucial to San Francisco's success in confounding teams in throwing out of 21 personnel.
Thanks in large part to the interchangeability of McCaffrey and 'wide back' Deebo Samuel, the 49ers were third in EPA throwing the ball out of 21 and first in positive play rate (58.2%) among teams that with at least 25 pass attempts from the formation, per SIS.
McCaffrey had 564 receiving yards on 67 receptions last season, taking him to a league-high 2,023 scrimmage yards on a total of 339 touches that also led the NFL as he won Offensive Player of the Year.
His value as a receiver and the unpredictability he helps foster form part of the myriad of reasons why the Niners are betting on McCaffrey again, though the gamble this time is different.
Aiming to avoid the cliff
The initial trade an overwhelming win, the 49ers are now placing their faith in McCaffrey's body to continue to hold up into his 30s, with the former eighth overall pick now signed through his age-31 season in 2027.
Running backs are renowned for 'falling off the cliff' at that point in their career, though neither player nor head coach have that expectation of McCaffrey.
Said Shanahan on Tuesday:
"When you look at Christian just as an individual, I’m not going to compare him to anybody else. Christian is one of the more talented people I’ve ever been with in my life. But if I didn’t speak about that, I’d say he is almost the biggest overachiever I’ve been around in my life, in terms of how obsessive he is with every little thing and you guys have heard us talk about him, but that’s where he is extremely unique. As you get older with age, you lose a step or something, that’s not what makes Christian great. That’s how he is the same player down in and down out. And yeah, it’s great to have all the talent that he does have and he takes care of his body as good as anyone. So you don’t picture him losing any of that because of a number. But if that stuff does happen, Christian’s always going to be a good football player until he decides not to be. And we’re not really concerned with that at all with this type of personality."
McCaffrey was more succinct.
"I've never really listened to all that stuff, I've seen a lot of backs have a lot of success into their 30s," he told his press conference. "I've never really listened to that. I feel good, that's all I know."
Still, Shanahan is cognisant that the 339 number is likely not a sustainable one for McCaffrey despite his superb durability to this point with the 49ers and, after adding three running backs to a very busy room in the offseason, he knows how he'd ideally like that tally to come down to ensure injury is not what sees McCaffrey fall off.
He added: "I don’t think it always needs to be that case with all the runs. Like we have guys that can run the ball. We have to protect Christian from himself. He doesn’t like to ever come out no matter what the situation is and I do think that’s something we could protect him with more.
"When you are such a threat in the pass game, it’s a little bit different. And when you get touches from a running back, a lot of times you’re the last choice, just everyone’s deep and you throw it to a checkdown. So, halfbacks can get six targets in a game without one play called for him just because they’re on checkdowns a lot. And so how do we feel about those touches? Man, I’m glad he was out there for that checkdown. That means no one’s around and he is getting up the field and he is as good of a threat on a checkdown as there can be.
"But if he’s just taking the wear and tear with 20 carries and stuff every game and he’s definitely good enough to do that and he is proved he can stay healthy. But you’d like to take some of that off of him and give it to other guys also."
The 49ers have every reason to be confident McCaffrey can silence the doubters who view the idea of paying running back into their 30s as a folly. But the burden, at least from a run game perspective, cannot be entirely on his shoulders for them to win their latest bet on the NFL's premier running back.
No other back on the team got more than 75 carries last year. That cannot continue to be the case going forward. Balance will be needed for McCaffrey to maintain his devastating play into his 30s, and achieving that will be contingent on at least one of his teammates proving they are worthy of eating more substantially into his mammoth workload.
Kyle Shanahan’s latest comments on 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy should strike fear into the rest of the NFL
His superpower could get even stronger.
