Brandon Aiyuk is primed to make his first Pro Bowl for the 49ers in 2023
The 49ers' roster is one teaming with stars. Last season, the 49ers ended the campaign with six All-Pros (four first-team and two second-team) and seven Pro Bowlers. As well as trading for elite talents such as Trent Williams and, more recently, Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco has done an excellent job of developing draft picks during […]
The 49ers' roster is one teaming with stars.
Last season, the 49ers ended the campaign with six All-Pros (four first-team and two second-team) and seven Pro Bowlers.
As well as trading for elite talents such as Trent Williams and, more recently, Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco has done an excellent job of developing draft picks during Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch's time with the team.
And one of their more high-profile picks made a substantial leap last season to a point where he is primed to become their latest Pro Bowler in 2023.
Brandon Aiyuk's 49ers career has been a rollercoaster but, following his third season, he is firmly on the trajectory San Francisco envisioned when the Niners traded up to take him as their second first-round pick in the 2020 draft.
After an encouraging rookie year in which he did not have a true training camp because of the coronavirus pandemic, Aiyuk's 2021 season was at first defined by questions over if he could escape Shanahan's 'doghouse' as he struggled to make an impact.
But Aiyuk did work his way back into being a key feature of the passing game and finished 2021 strong, and he carried that momentum into a superb 2022.
Aiyuk topped 1,000 yards for the first time in his career and also caught a career-high eight touchdowns, but it is his performance in several advanced metrics that better illustrate his influence.
Route-running has long since been Aiyuk's forte. He is a technician in that area of the game who possesses outstanding change of direction flexibility and utilizes it to consistently defeat coverage. Aiyuk frequently leans on his footwork to help him win with his release but also relies on headfakes and his stop-start quickness to generate separation from defenders.
His proficiency for getting the better of defenders when lined up one on one is reflected by his performance against man coverage in 2022.
When faced with Cover 1, Cover 2 man or Cover 0 last season, Aiyuk averaged 0.52 Expected Points Added per target, according to Sports Info Solutions. That put him seventh among wide receivers with at least 25 targets against those coverages.
His average of 3.1 yards per route run against those coverages put him tied for eighth with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyreek Hill.
Going over the middle into congested areas is a pre-requisite for Shanahan receivers and Aiyuk shows little fear in that regard. He displays excellent concentration catching the football, with only seven of the 39 pass-catchers with at least 100 targets recording fewer drops than Aiyuk's four.
That prowess in congested areas has helped Aiyuk develop into an extremely effective red zone receiver. In 2022, Aiyuk caught 10 of his 15 red zone targets, six of them going for touchdowns. Just four players caught more touchdowns inside the 20, and only two of them were wideouts.
While not as devastating after the catch as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle after the catch, Aiyuk is also impressive with the ball in his hands. Per NextGen Stats, Aiyuk averaged 4.9 yards after catch per reception, outperforming his expected average YAC of 4.3.
Aiyuk is a receiver who doesn't need elite physical traits to defeat coverage, can make difficult catches in congested areas and consistently gains more yards after the catch than anticipated. On top of that, he is a receiver who is completely bought in to the need for determined perimeter blocking that is a non-negotiable for Shanahan receivers.
But perhaps the most significant factor in considering him a potential Pro Bowler for 2023 is his rapport with two of the quarterbacks on the depth chart.
Aiyuk worked closely with Trey Lance last offseason, having previously displayed an impressive understanding with the third overall pick during Lance's brief time on the field in 2021.
They had little chance to further develop their on-field relationship because of Lance's 2022 injury, but Aiyuk quickly became one of Brock Purdy's favorite targets when he was thrust into the starting job.
Across Purdy's five regular-season starts, Aiyuk and Kittle were tied for the lead for receptions among 49er pass-catchers with 22 each.
Those numbers were in part a product of Deebo Samuel being kept out of the lineup due to an injury suffered in Purdy's first start. Still, the fact 16 of Aiyuk's 22 receptions from San Francisco's likely 2023 starting quarterback went for first downs speaks to the value of the connection they hastily developed.
Their understanding was most evident in the fourth quarter of an overtime win over the Raiders in which Aiyuk had four receptions for a first down on the same drive at the end of regulation.
Aiyuk already being on the same page as both Purdy and Lance bodes well for his hopes of remaining an integral part of the passing game regardless of who is at quarterback. He will get ample chance to get used to catching from Sam Darnold in training camp.
The array of options in the 49er passing game could be seen as a hindrance to Aiyuk making the Pro Bowl.
Yet he is a receiver who is already one of the most trusted targets of the quarterbacks many expect to be the top two on the depth chart.
The faith both Purdy and Lance have in him, combined with his ability to beat both man and zone coverage and his head coach's aptitude for using the gravity of his other weapons to get Aiyuk in space puts him in an excellent position for an even more productive year, a Pro Bowl and a potentially massive payday next offseason.
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