A to Z Top 25 College Football Poll: AP Poll continues ignoring strength of schedule but finally making sense near the top

Indiana joins Ohio State and Miami among the elite in College Football following huge win over Oregon

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The AP Top 25 College Football Poll continues to swing and miss almost every single week. Yes, it is a rather comprehensive data set, informed by good people doing their best–in many cases–but it’s become quite clear (especially this season) that many of the voters simply do not watch almost any of the games before submitting their ballots. That yields some, let’s just call them “interesting”, results each week.

Given that fact, our team of highly dedicated college football and NFL Draft staff at A to Z Sports who do in fact watch as many games as humanly possible each week on top of covering their respective teams decided to come together and get the top 25 best teams ranked correctly. We’ve been calling this the “A to Z Top 25 College Football Poll”.

Each week this season we have been and will continue breaking down our top 25 teams briefly, then talking through which teams we are higher and lower on versus the AP Poll to give college football fans the best rankings in the business. Enjoy!

Key Facts & Stats that impacted A to Z Poll

  • Tennessee Volunteers rank 8th in offensive success rate, 9th in adjusted EPA (expected points added) per play, and in 10th in yards per play. Their only loss came to Georgia in overtime after leading 27 minutes of regulation.
  • The USC Trojans still rank first in offensive success rate, adjusted EPA per play, yards per play, and yards per drop back among all power conference teams in the country by a significantly wide margin following a blowout win over Michigan, 31-13.
  • Outside of the the Utah Utes’ one loss to top ten ranked Texas Tech their average margin of victory in five wins this season is over 35 points per game.

A to Z Top 25 College Football Poll – Week 8

  1. Ohio State, 299 points (11 first place votes)
  2. Miami, 288 (1 first place vote)
  3. Indiana, 275
  4. Texas A&M, 264
  5. Ole Miss, 245
  6. Alabama, 242
  7. Texas Tech, 220
  8. Oregon, 216
  9. Georgia, 212
  10. Tennessee, 184
  11. LSU, 180
  12. Georgia Tech, 163
  13. Oklahoma, 157
  14. Notre Dame, 151
  15. Missouri, 115
  16. BYU, 110
  17. Vanderbilt, 103
  18. Virginia, 102
  19. USC, 76
  20. Utah, 64
  21. Texas, 49
  22. Cincinnati, 47
  23. Memphis, 38
  24. Nebraska, 34
  25. USF, 33

    Also receiving votes: Illinois 21, Washington 12, UNLV 4, Michigan 2, Iowa State 2

The A to Z and AP Poll finally got in sync at the very top of the rankings as the truly great teams are finally separating themselves seven weeks into the season. The top nine were the exact same, albeit with far more confidence in Ohio State as the top team according to our staff. Ohio State and Miami were the obvious number one and two. Indiana launched up to number three following their epic defeat of Oregon. Texas A&M is still undefeated after allowing just two third down conversions in their last three SEC games combined. Then Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas Tech, Oregon, and Georgia rounded out the top consensus group.

The A to Z staff started to diverge from the AP Poll at Tennessee. The AP Poll somehow ranked the LSU Tigers over the Vols despite the Tigers having a terrible offense that has yet to score more than 20 points against a power conference opponent.

The AP Poll also punished the Oklahoma Sooners and Missouri Tigers too much for tough, but understandable losses. Oklahoma lost to the Texas Longhorns with their starting quarterback 17 days removed from hand surgery. Mizzou lost to sixth ranked Alabama by just a field goal.

After about rank 15 things got rather ridiculous from the AP Poll. The USC Trojans and Utah Utes continue to receive nearly zero credit, ranking 20th and 23rd. The Trojans rank first in almost every offensive category. Utah has outscored opponents 227-49 in their five wins. On the other hand, the AP Poll continues to reward teams like BYU (AP ranked 15th) and Memphis (AP ranked 23rd) for beating absolutely nobody with their soft strength of schedule, looking mediocre in the process. Then the AP Poll turned around and completely underrated Cincinnati and Nebraska who have more quality wins. No consistency yet again.

Let’s take a look at all the teams where our A to Z Sports staff obviously got it right and the AP got it wrong.

Teams we were higher on than the AP Poll

Tennessee Volunteers

The Tennessee Volunteers are your classic case of a team who can play down to inferior opponents at times, but also has the talent to win against anyone if they are playing well. Quarterback Joey Aguilar has played a lot of good football for them, but the Tennessee run game is what that offense hangs their hat on. If star cornerback Jermod McCoy is able to get back on the field soon, the Volunteers have one of the very best defensive back duos in college football along with Colton Hood. This is a team that can’t be slept on because they have more than enough fire power to beat you. – Ryan Roberts, A to Z Sports Notre Dame

Oklahoma Sooners

I think we are going to read too much into Oklahoma’s struggles in Red River against the Texas Longhorns as the product of who they are rather than a one-off. Yes, John Mateer was coming off of thumb surgery, but the turnover luck was not with them, as the game was lost not due to the injury, but rather what happens in between the ears. Mateer was making bad decisions left and right and the Longhorns made them pay for it. The defense was really good in holding Texas to 16 points of offense. They will learn from that loss and be better for it. Rivalry games are weird, especially when it’s at a neutral site like the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma will be just fine and likely come back swinging. – Tyler Forness, A to Z Sports Florida

Missouri Tigers

Having Missouri 12th in my rankings is less about the Tigers and more about the Alabama Crimson Tide. Simply put, Missouri was a thorn in the Tide’s side for 60 minutes on Saturday. And you can say what you want about the Week 1 FSU loss, but the last three weeks have featured wins against Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Missouri for Alabama, with the only game at home being Vandy. Missouri beat a solid South Carolina team, and I’m not going to punish them for taking one of the best teams in the nation down to the wire. – Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports Alabama

USC Trojans

The USC Trojans have scored at least 31 points in every single game this season. Their only loss was a 34-32 thriller where they almost came back from down 14 at Illinois (a team our staff ranked 26th this week, but could be higher). The Trojans rank first in almost every meaningful offensive efficiency category. Yards per play, EPA per play, success rate, yards per drop back. You name it. The Trojans likely lead or nearly lead in it. Now their defense is starting to come together too as they completely shut down Michigan this past weekend. Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon continue to be the best QB-WR connection in the country. I had the Trojans ranked 15th this week and almost put them higher. The AP has this wrong as they’re stuck remembering USC failures over the last few years. – Travis May, A to Z Sports College Football & NFL Draft Managing Editor

Utah Utes

The Utes simply just keep winning. It wasn’t super pretty against Arizona State, but Devon Dampier’s team did what they’ve been doing nearly every week this season. They took care of business and played clean football. They sit at 5-1 with their only loss being to Texas Tech–a consensus top 10 team in the country. Winning at BYU in Week 8 would only add fuel to this fire. With their remaining schedule, finishing 10-2 is absolutely on the table for Kyle Whittingham’s squad. – Adam Holt, A to Z Sports New Orleans Saints and LSU

Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati has won five straight games, and that opening loss to Nebraska now feels like forever ago. A solid win over Iowa State two weekends ago was followed by a home victory against UCF this past weekend. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has given the Bearcats a true playmaker under center, and his 14-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio shows just how effective he’s been. The matchup at Utah on Nov. 1 will reveal whether this team is a legitimate College Football Playoff contender–and I think they have the potential to be. – Brandon Little, A to Z Sports Ohio State

Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are getting better and better every single week, and they’re playing and beating the teams on their schedule. What more can you ask from them? Their one loss is to a pretty good Michigan team, which they should have beaten, and almost did defeat. I think if those two teams play again, Nebraska wins it. Dylan Raiola is playing big-time football and scoring with ease, even in the final minutes of the game, like he did against Maryland. Oh, and their defense has been pretty good. I think they deserve to be at about 16th overall. Why? Most of the teams in that 20-25 range (and most of them in the 15-20 range of the AP Poll) the Cornhuskers likely beat, and some of them they beat handily. – Justin Churchill, A to Z Sports Oklahoma

Teams we were lower on than the AP Poll

LSU Tigers

LSU is a tricky team to figure out this season. The defense has been elite this year, with some strong play in the secondary by Mansoor Delane and AJ Haulcy. However, the offense has been downright dismal, even with all the talent on the roster. They’ve squeaked out close wins over a bad Clemson team, Florida, and South Carolina and barely moved the ball against Ole Miss. I don’t think they are a bad team, per se, especially defensively, but the offense being one of the worst in CFB (104th in EPA per play) takes a lot of shine off of this team, and they don’t have enough of a quality resume to be a top ten team. Their next three games against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Alabama would go a long way in changing my view, but for now, I don’t see a top ten team in the country. – AJ Schulte, A to Z Sports Oklahoma

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

It was only a matter of time before Notre Dame rose back into the CFP ranks. Despite its two losses early, the Fighting Irish have more credibility with AP voters because of their championship game run last year and obvious recruiting pedigree. While I don’t disagree with pro-Notre Dame takes at all, my justification has more to do with rewarding teams with fewer losses. Losing to Miami and Texas A&M looks even better now, but it feels a bit unfair to overly reward the Irish just for losing those games in a close manner. My ranking might be a tad low at 19th, admittedly, and I like the upside of Notre Dame more than others. But we need to keep seeing wins by them and losses by peers for them to rise again. – Ian Valentino, A to Z Sports LSU

BYU Cougars

BYU came in at 18th in my rankings this week, four spots higher than their 22nd ranking a week ago. Honestly I’m shocked 18th is considered lower than the consensus when you watch BYU play. They are coming off a narrow win over Arizona that I give them credit for pulling out but I think their flaws were exposed a bit. QB Bear Bachmeier is uninspiring as a passer though I have been impressed with what he can do as a runner. Opposing teams are going to do everything in their power to force Bachmeier to beat them with his arm, and I think he’s going to fall short in those situations here soon.

Arizona came close to doing it this past week forcing him to only complete 12 of his 29 pass attempts for 172 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. They remain undefeated though, and I think that has to matter. I’m excited to see what happens this week with them taking on a Utah team that is coming off a dominant win over Arizona State. – Destin Adams, A to Z Sports Indianapolis

Memphis Tigers

I had Memphis 23rd, but it’s mostly an acknowledgment to what the teams just barely ahead of them did. USC and Texas both had very impressive and controlling wins over then-top-15 teams. USF also had a huge game. But Memphis will get their chance to jump up against the Bulls in less than two weeks in a massive game with CFP implications. – Craig Smith, A to Z Sports Miami

USF Bulls

The biggest blemish on USF’s resumé is obviously the 49-12 loss to Miami. That’s a bad loss, but I’m willing to give USF the benefit of the doubt. That game felt like a classic letdown game after USF knocked off Florida in the Swamp the previous weekend. USF has easily taken care of business in recent weeks against inferior opponents, winning by an average of 35 points over its last three games (South Carolina State, Charlotte, North Texas). I don’t blame the rest of the A to Z team for ranking USF lower than I did — it’s just that my feeling is that the loss to Miami doesn’t accurately reflect who USF is as a team. – Zach Ragan, A to Z Sports Tennessee

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