A to Z Top 25 College Football Poll: AP Poll wildly overreacts to losses near the top and continues to overrate soft schedules
Ohio State, Miami, and Oregon are separating themselves from the rest of college football
The AP Top 25 College Football Poll continues to get it wrong every single week. Yes, it is a rather comprehensive data set, informed by good people doing their best–in many cases–but it’s become quite clear (especially this season) that a good portion of the voters simply do not watch almost any of the games before submitting their ballots. That yields some, let’s just call them “interesting”, results each week.
Given that fact, our team of highly dedicated college football and NFL Draft staff at A to Z Sports who do in fact watch as many games as humanly possible each week on top of covering their respective teams decided to come together and get the top 25 best teams ranked correctly. We’ve been calling this the “A to Z Top 25 College Football Poll”.
Each week this season we have been and will continue breaking down our top 25 teams briefly, then talking through which teams we are higher and lower on versus the AP Poll to give college football fans the best rankings in the business. Enjoy!
Key Facts & Stats that impacted A to Z Poll
- Oklahoma has the number one defense in the country by far. They rank first in yards per play, adjusted EPA per play, pass success rate, rush success rate, havoc rate, and more. There isn’t a close second to them on defense and they’re winning games even with their backup quarterback in the game now.
- Through five weeks the Texas Longhorns’ defense ranks 6th in adjusted EPA per play allowed, top 20 in yards per play and total yards allowed. Their only losses have come at number one ranked Ohio State and Florida in The Swamp.
- Penn State’s defense ranks top 15 in havoc rate, top 20 in yards per play allowed, and top 3 in explosive plays allowed over 30 yards despite the wild loss to UCLA that required a blocked punt return touchdown to make that happen. Their only other loss came in double overtime to Oregon, the third ranked team in the country.
A to Z Top 25 College Football Poll – Week 6
- Ohio State, 295 points (7 first place votes)
- Miami (FL), 286 (4 first place votes)
- Oregon, 281 (1 first place vote)
- Oklahoma, 256
- Ole Miss, 254
- Texas A&M, 239
- Alabama, 222
- Indiana, 213
- Georgia, 208
- Texas Tech, 199
- Tennessee, 171
- LSU, 167
- Missouri, 157
- Georgia Tech, 146
- Notre Dame, 130
- Michigan, 105
- Illinois, 100
- Vanderbilt, 81
- Virginia, 72
- BYU, 60
- Iowa State, 52
- Texas, 38
- Penn State, 34
- Arizona State, 33
- Florida State, 27
Also receiving votes: Utah 21, Cincinnati 16, Memphis 15, Nebraska 11, USF 8, UNLV 2
The A to Z and AP Poll results were starting to align a bit more last week, but this week’s rankings don’t line up nearly at all. Yes, Ohio State, Miami, and Oregon form a clear top three tier by themselves, but that’s about where the similarities end.
The Oklahoma Sooners were ranked fourth or better by eight of our A to Z Sports staff thanks to their elite defense that ranks number one in most every meaningful metric, but the AP Poll barely had them sixth and dropped them a spot compared to last week somehow.
The AP Poll continues to punish Alabama for a loss that happened in Week 1, while our squad has them back at seventh overall. The AP is finally catching up on how good Tennessee and Missouri are, but they’re still too low. Same with Notre Dame, seeing as their only two losses are to top six ranked Miami and Texas A&M.
Our A to Z Poll has been far more reactive to big SEC and Big Ten wins for the most part this year, and the AP Poll seems to weigh losses far too heavily, regardless of the opponent. Leaving Texas and Penn State out was something our staff couldn’t do in response to tough one-possession losses for those teams (one of which was rather flukey for the Nittany Lions). The AP Poll’s complete lack of care for strength of schedule or key statistical indicators led to several differences later in the rankings, especially when it came to their confidence in Memphis, USF, and somewhat aggressive rankings for BYU and Arizona State. 12 of our staff weighed in on those differences in our ranks versus the AP Poll. Let’s dive in.
Teams we were higher on than the AP Poll
Miami Hurricanes
Miami has the eye test and the resume of the top team in the country. The Hurricanes have controlled every game they’ve been in and boast wins over Notre Dame, USF, Florida, and Florida State. No one else has a resume that comes close to what the Canes have pulled off over the season’s first six weeks. – Craig Smith, A to Z Sports Miami
[Editor’s Note: While we and the AP both had Miami consensus number two, our staff had a higher percentage of votes for them first overall]
Oklahoma Sooners
The best defense in college football, paired with the best quarterback in college football, has to be higher than what most are giving them credit for in the polls. And their resume is pretty good too, with wins over the Michigan Wolverines and the Auburn Tigers, who were ranked at the time. Not to mention, they won that game with John Mateer having an injured throwing hand and a knee sprain. This is a team that isn’t getting enough attention. – Justin Churchill, A to Z Sports Oklahoma
Alabama Crimson Tide
I was torn on where to rank Alabama–fourth, fifth or sixth. I ended up landing at sixth overall this week in a virtual tie with Oklahoma and Texas A&M just outside the top three teams in the country, but couldn’t believe the AP Poll is still punishing them for the Week 1 loss to Florida State. The Crimson Tide are a completely different team now thanks to the emergence and development of quarterback Ty Simpson, and their defensive havoc creation on almost every play. Convincing wins over Vanderbilt and Wisconsin? Defeating Georgia in their house, snapping a 30+ home game win streak for the Bulldogs? And the the AP Poll barely has them as a top ten team? Get out of here with that. – Travis May, A to Z Sports College Football & NFL Draft Managing Editor
Missouri Tigers
I think Missouri still has a lot to prove–and they’ll get a chance to make a statement against Alabama this weekend at home–but the Tigers have taken care of business so far this season while getting off to a 5-0 start. For now, wins against Kansas and South Carolina have Missouri extremely high in my rankings. But they’ll need to do a lot more this season to settle firmly into the top 10. – Zach Ragan, A to Z Sports Tennessee
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame football is in a very strange position, but there has been a lot of growth over the course of the season so far. They had the unfortunate circumstance of playing Miami and Texas A&M to begin the year, both of which are ranked inside of the top five right now. The Irish lost those games by a combined four points, showing just how close they are from being right near the top of the rankings. Their offense has been very good so far under quarterback CJ Carr, but the key is the defense continuing to progress. We have seen that over the last couple of games. – Ryan Roberts, A to Z Sports Notre Dame
Texas Longhorns
What to do with teams like Texas and Penn State was the hardest decision I had to personally make with my rankings this week. Both teams had embarrassing outings and suffered downright terrible losses for their resume. Texas ended up losing to a Florida team that had lost three straight ahead of this matchup and was playing a very uninspiring brand of football. Texas fell out of the top 25 altogether in the newest AP poll and I honestly wish I could have done that because they deserved some level of punishment.
The problem is if I’m ranking who I believe to be the top 25 teams in the country, then the fact that Texas made Ohio State sweat more than anyone this year has to matter. I also think my 20th ranked team Michigan plays a factor because I haven’t seen anything from the Wolverines this seasons that tells me they are better than teams like Texas, Penn State, and Florida State who lost last week. So I elected to keep them in front of Michigan at 17, 18, and 19. – Destin Adams, A to Z Sports Indianapolis
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State has now lost two straight games after being the No. 2 team to start the season. The Nittany Lions entered the season with a stacked roster and they sure didn’t look as if they had one in the embarrassing loss to UCLA. Drew Allar hasn’t progressed for Penn State as they’d like and James Franklin still can’t win big games. However, I still believe the Nittany Lions are a top-20 team and will only lose one more game in the regular season–and that’s on Nov. 1 against Ohio State. The showing in UCLA was inexcusable but there’s no chance that’s who Penn State really is anywhere near their best. – Brandon Little, A to Z Sports Ohio State
Teams were were lower on than the AP Poll
Indiana Hoosiers
I promise, Hoosiers fans, I do not hate your football team. This ranking has more to do with the recent big wins by the teams around IU over the past couple of weeks. I really liked the Hoosiers as a consistent top 20 force entering the season, and that opinion hasn’t been swayed whatsoever. They’ve got legit potential. With that said, Indiana has a massive opportunity this weekend against Oregon. With a tight loss, they really won’t move for me. That’s the good news for IU. If they did find a way to win, they’d leap into the top 5 of my rankings. This is the diving board for Curt Cignetti’s team this season. Will they falter and belly flop or finish a majestic can opener as they enter the water? We will find out this weekend. – Adam Holt, A to Z Sports New Orleans Saints and LSU
Michigan Wolverines
When you watch the Michigan Wolverines, they are a team on the come up. Bryce Underwood is going to be a star in college football, but he’s not quite there yet from a polish standpoint. He is missing throws down the field, mainly due to putting a little too much mustard on the ball. Plus, he doesn’t have anyone on the outside he can trust to make a play. This team is likely a year or two away from being a major factor, and I’m not sold on this version being able to do much in 2025. – Tyler Forness, A to Z Sports Florida
BYU Cougars
18 is just a tad rich for me when it comes to the Cougars of BYU. They sit atop the Big 12, but they haven’t beaten a notable team thus far. West Virginia is amid a rebuild, and they went down to the wire with Colorado, which has started three different quarterbacks this year. That doesn’t mean they are bad, but I need to see more–which is exactly what happens over the next month. The Cougars will face Arizona, Utah, Iowa State, and Texas Tech between now and November 8th. Should they go undefeated in that stretch, I will have them a heck of a lot higher than 18th. – Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports Alabama
Arizona State Sun Devils
If it wasn’t for my choice to keep several teams that deserved to be ranked even after losses this week in my top 25, I likely would have kept the Sun Devils ranked. I was a staunch defender of the Sun Devils throughout the offseason, but the on-field product so far this season hasn’t quite delivered yet enough for me to be sold on them ahead of some of the other teams I ranked at the bottom. Arizona State has inched by Baylor and TCU by a combined six points and were metaphorically pantsed throughout significant chunks of those games by teams that, quite frankly, they shouldn’t be in competitive games with given the talent differential.
From the teams that I ranked 19-25, I don’t think Arizona State has a better resume than any of Michigan, Florida State, Vanderbilt, Virginia, BYU, or Utah, and each of those teams have delivered better results on the field this season in my opinion. Based solely on the talent on the roster, Arizona State should be ranked, but they haven’t played up to their talent level, thus making me a little wary of ranking them. Their next two games against Utah and Texas Tech will go a long way in shifting my perspective, but they have to play better than they have moving forward. – AJ Schulte, A to Z Sports Oklahoma
Memphis Tigers
I’m just slightly lower on the Memphis Tigers than the AP, and it’s largely because I gave the benefit of the doubt to Texas and Penn State. While Memphis has better advanced stats and raw record, there’s an objective difference in the depth and ceiling of these teams. That didn’t make it easier to keep Memphis below them, though. Where the Tigers can most improve is seeing their scoring offense (22nd) and defense (15th) rise closer to the top 10. Because they play a lower strength of schedule, (105th), it’s a little easier to think they’re beating up on bad teams more than being a clear top 25 team. – Ian Valentino, A to Z Sports LSU
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