The advanced stats have a favorite in the Notre Dame vs Georgia Sugar Bowl, and it is by the smallest of margins
With Christmas now behind us, all eyes are set for the Sugar Bowl matchup featuring the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Georgia Bulldogs. It promises to be one of the more interesting games in the second round of the College Football Playoffs, featuring two massive brands with some injury question marks behind each. On […]
With Christmas now behind us, all eyes are set for the Sugar Bowl matchup featuring the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Georgia Bulldogs. It promises to be one of the more interesting games in the second round of the College Football Playoffs, featuring two massive brands with some injury question marks behind each.
On paper, this is a game that analysts and the general public seem to be all over the place on. Some believe that this is the most beatable Georgia team in years, and the Irish team is a sleeping giant ready to make a statement. Others believe that Notre Dame is a bit fraudulent, and will once again falter on a bigger stage. Then there’s the reasonable audience that believes this game will be a competitive one, and either could come out on top.
Parker Fleming (@statsowar on X) is a data scientist who draws from advanced statistics to compare teams in specific matchups each and every week. He put his metric to the test for the Sugar Bowl, and too no surprise, it was a matchup that came out incredibly close.
In fact, this matchup was the closest of every game that Fleming ran for the second round of the playoffs. In his model, the Fighting Irish came out on top, but very slightly. It appears that when you crunch the numbers, this Notre Dame team is the the better and more complete one.
As we know, a game isn’t decided on paper. With two very strong defenses on both sides, and question marks with each offense, this promises to be an all-out war. Taking the under seems like a safe bet, and ultimately, this game will more than likely be decided by which teams makes the least amount of mistakes and biggest plays in the most important moments.
The Sugar Bowl is set to kickoff at 8:45 PM Eastern time on New Year's Day in New Orleans, Louisiana. It will be the final playoff game of the round, and could end up being the very best matchup so far this postseason.
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