The Big Ten is the biggest hurdle for Notre Dame for the ideal but highly unlikely College Football playoff path
Notre Dame football received some good news on Tuesday night, rising up to No. 8 on the most recent College Football playoff ranking. That ranking is up two spots after coming in at No. 10 to kick things off last week. In this most recent projection, the Fighting Irish would face off against the Tennessee […]
Notre Dame football received some good news on Tuesday night, rising up to No. 8 on the most recent College Football playoff ranking. That ranking is up two spots after coming in at No. 10 to kick things off last week. In this most recent projection, the Fighting Irish would face off against the Tennessee Volunteers.
While Notre Dame isn’t capable of holding a top four seed due to its exclusivity to conference champions, there is still a path to being the No. 5 seed in the final ranking but it is highly unlikely. That would be the most ideal scenario for the Irish, who would more than likely face off against the G5 representative, who is Boise State at this time. They would also host that first round contest.
Unfortunately, for the Irish, being able to get up to that No. 5 spot seems very unlikely right now. The biggest reason for that is the Big Ten conference, which could provide a bit of a blockage for Notre Dame.
In the most recent playoff ranking, we saw four Big Ten programs finish inside the top five schools. That included (1) Oregon, Ohio State (2), Penn State (4), and (5) Indiana. Having that type of volume makes for a strong finish for the conference in the final ranking. As you project forward, there is a big chance that the top could be jammed from that conference.
As of today, Oregon would be in the Big Ten championship. They are undefeated in the conference and have games remaining against Wisconsin and Washington, which would mean it’s very unlikely that they enter that championship game with a loss. No matter who they end up playing, the Ducks feel like a safe bet to finish in the top five schools, and at worst finish in that No. 5 slot.
Indiana would be the team that Oregon would play in the championship game, although that could change when they face off against Ohio State. If the Buckeyes win, which is the most likely scenario, then they will be set for a rematch against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. If they win, then the Buckeyes would be the automatic qualifier, and the Ducks move back to probably that fifth spot.
If Indiana does somehow beat Ohio State, then they should finish inside the top six even with a Big Ten championship loss. That would be a bit too much for Notre Dame to jump them.
That isn’t even including Penn State, who has just Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland left on their schedule. Obviously, the Nittany Lions are going to be favored in all of those games, which means they are going to more than likely end the year at 11-1. Since they are already in the No. 5 spot in the playoff bracket, there’s a world where they drop back a slot despite winning out. In reality, that means that Notre Dame’s best case scenario is at a No. 7 or No. 8 seed.
There is just a very, very small likelihood that the Irish finish in that fifth spot. They can blame that one two things, Northern Illinois, and a top heavy Big Ten conference.
