12-Team College Football Playoff Projected Bracket reveals critical issues that already need massive overhaul
The 12-Team College Football Playoff Projected Bracket this week is already sparking controversy. It was one thing for an undefeated BYU team (who was obviously overrated) to potentially earn a first round bye. But now that BYU has lost, Boise State has assumed the four seed slot, jumping up into the final first round bye […]
The 12-Team College Football Playoff Projected Bracket this week is already sparking controversy. It was one thing for an undefeated BYU team (who was obviously overrated) to potentially earn a first round bye. But now that BYU has lost, Boise State has assumed the four seed slot, jumping up into the final first round bye spot, despite being ranked 11th overall. Some media and fans took immediate issue with this and more.
In case you missed the rankings show, here's where the official bracket projections landed this week. This is the exact reason that the current playoff format might be in for a complete overhaul in the very near future.
Why all the outrage from fans and media?
Now that we have a couple weeks of playoff bracket projections from the selection committee there are four easy-to-spot problems with this new 12-Team College Football Playoff format.
First, the format is far too confusing for the average fan to follow. Second, in an "expanded" playoff, there are still clearly a couple teams getting left out that likely deserve a shot given the sport's newfound parity. Third, the fifth seed should never have an easier path to the semifinals than the one seed, but the math suggests this might be the case every single year. And lastly–which seems to be the biggest issue for many–the top four teams should get a bye, not the conference champions because Boise State is certainly not a top four team.
First off, college football just wrapped up a decade of four-team playoffs where it was simple. The top four teams get in. That's it. In this new format, five conference champions get in, four of those get a bye, the fifth one does not, and there are seven at-large bids, some of which don't get the seed that they deserve via the overall rankings. There is no way to describe this format shortly or succinctly. The average fan gets lost in this.
To the second issue, Tennessee, SMU, and Texas A&M all obviously deserve a shot this year. Tennessee and Texas A&M look very likely to be locked into a six-way SEC conference record tie for second place, holding strong wins against conference opponents. SMU might be in the mix to finish the season 11-1 and still miss the playoff despite now playing in the ACC. That's tough.
And as for the third issue–this might sound odd–but seriously, Ohio State is slated to have the easiest path to the semifinals (and championship game) by far from the five seed spot. Just check out the odds of Ohio State beating both BYU and Boise State in the post from Frank at Fade The Noise below.
Oregon, if they win the Big Ten Championship, will get a first round bye. However, they would then (via this latest projection) have to play Notre Dame or Alabama. The Ducks would only be favored as a 55%-60% implied probability winner. The Buckeyes would have nearly an 80% implied shot at beating both of their opponents, easily making it to the semifinals. That's not remotely fair for a five seed (who may have just lost to the one seed in a conference championship game) to earn an easier path.
And lastly, just look at some of the hilarious responses on the post below. Fans have no idea how this format works and hate the idea that Boise State could ever earn the fourth seed over a "Power Four" conference.
It makes sense to be outraged that a Group of Five Conference team could ever possibly receive a first round bye. But regardless of whether it's Boise State or some other similar team, the likely loser of the SEC and Big Ten Championship will automatically be seeded below some undeserving four seed this year.
That just feels wrong, on top of being confusing to the average college football fan.
So, where do we go from here now that it seems the 12-Team College Football Playoff is already broken before it's even begun?
14 teams. Five conference champions automatically in, but the the byes go to the four highest ranked teams. That already sounds like it's the simple clean answer. And we won't have to wait for those possible changes for long either. Thanks to the current agreement set in place, there's a potential "look-in" clause that can take place after just two seasons of this 12-Team playoff model.
What does that mean? This version of the college football playoff is just the testing ground for what the powers-that-be ultimately want the future of the postseason to look like. That means we all can stop overreacting to this mess of an imperfect format and just enjoy the ride, rest assured knowing these growing pains are just a part of the process.
Yes, we're going to see an absolutely ridiculous four seed lose by three or four touchdowns in the quarterfinals. Yes, the one seed's path is going to be more difficult than the five seed. And yes, there are still going to be a few "deserving" teams get left out. That might be frustrating to some, but it's also part of the beauty and chaos that makes college football great. And we'll likely see a different version of this chaos here soon.
We'll be back with more College Football Playoff coverage here at A to Z Sports all season long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
