College Football Playoff Predictions emphatically crown Big Ten as king of the conferences
The first round of the 2024 College Football Playoff has somehow already come and gone in less than dramatic fashion with most every game ending in a blowout. This surprised absolutely no one who actually understands how college football has worked for the past 100 years, but now that we're down to the final eight […]
The first round of the 2024 College Football Playoff has somehow already come and gone in less than dramatic fashion with most every game ending in a blowout. This surprised absolutely no one who actually understands how college football has worked for the past 100 years, but now that we're down to the final eight teams we can likely expect to see some higher quality matchups.
In case you somehow missed it, you can find the full remaining playoff bracket in the post below from the official College Football Playoff account:
Notre Dame looked unstoppable as they held a 27-3 lead on Indiana until the final minute and a half of the first playoff game. Penn State completely destroyed SMU after a couple early turnovers from Kevin Jennings. Texas pulled away late against Clemson in the best game of round one. And Ohio State mercilessly embarrassed Tennessee on the national stage to wrap up round one.
How will round two (the quarterfinals) of the first 12-Team College Football Playoff actually play out? Let's dive into each potential matchup using some key success metrics to help predict how things might go.
Quarterfinal Predictions
#3 Boise State vs. #6 Penn State
James Franklin and Penn State are favored by 10.5 points over Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31, 7:30pm ET) as of this writing. This game isn't expected to be close for some pretty good reasons.
Penn State's dominant defense ranks 4th in yards per game and 6th in yards per play allowed among all FBS teams this season. Why? They're stacked with talents like edge defender Abdul Carter who is set to be a Top 10 overall NFL Draft pick next spring. The Nittany Lions' defensive front should do enough to stifle Ashton Jeanty and the strong rushing attack of Boise State. Quarterback Drew Allar and his running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen should be able to put plenty of points on Boise State's defense that ranks outside the Top 50 in almost every meaningful metric.
#4 Arizona State vs. #5 Texas
Steve Sarkisian's Texas Longhorns are expected to completely blow out Kenny Dillingham and the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl. The Longhorns are currently favored by 13.5 points as of this writing and it might be even worse than that.
Texas has the second ranked defense in yards per play and the first overall defense in adjusted EPA/play allowed in the nation. The Longhorns defense should completely smother Arizona State's one-dimensional attack. Running back Cameron Skattebo might be able to bully his way to a couple long runs that keep things close early, but the Longhorns will pull away late in the game. The Longhorns' offense just hit its stride at the right time against Clemson in round one of the playoff as they averaged nearly seven yards per play. That number might be even higher against Arizona State's middling defense.
#1 Oregon vs #8 Ohio State
This epic rematch in the Rose Bowl between the second and third most likely teams to win it all (according to consensus betting odds) might be the best game of the entire College Football Playoff. Ryan Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes are currently favored by 2.5 points over Dan Lanning and the Oregon Ducks after their slashing of Tennessee in round one.
This game came down to the final drive and just one point the first time around. This game should be no different. However, Ohio State's offense looks fairly unstoppable now that offensive coordinator Chip Kelly remembered he has generational wide receiver talent Jeremiah Smith on the team. Smith completely demoralized and manhandled Tennessee's secondary for six receptions, 103 yards and two touchdowns in round one.
The Vols' secondary had been one of the best in the nation all year, but it didn't matter. If Ohio State properly utilizes Smith and fellow future first round wide receiver Emeka Egbuka in balance with their stellar running back tandem that should be enough to give them a win in this epic rematch between two amazing teams.
#2 Georgia vs #7 Notre Dame
As we detailed on Monday, Carson Beck is out for the remainder of the College Football Playoff and very likely all of NFL Draft preparation if he declares. Gunner Stockton did a great job managing the game in the SEC Championship, but can he beat Notre Dame now that the Irish can prepare for him specifically?
Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs are currently favored by a point and a half as of this writing, but that might prove incorrect in the end. Riley Leonard and Notre Dame's rushing attack led by stud sophomore Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price were the talk of the town in the first half against Indiana last week, but it's their defense that should give Georgia the most trouble.
Notre Dame's disciplined defense ranks second in adjusted EPA/play and first in pass success rate allowed this season. That should mean they completely (and perhaps quite easily) shut down Georgia's inexperienced replacement quarterback Gunner Stockton in the Sugar Bowl. If the Irish can just hold it together against the run Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman win this game.
Semifinals & Championship Predictions
Penn State vs Notre Dame Semifinal
Penn State and Notre Dame certainly weren't the betting favorites to face off in the Orange Bowl semifinal game, but here we are. Why would these two end up in the Orange Bowl (Jan. 9, 7:30pm ET) specifically? In this scenario Texas would be the highest remaining seed in the bracket and would quite likely choose to play in the Cotton Bowl since it's in Dallas.
Penn State would be the favorite to win this particular potential semifinal matchup. Why? Surprisingly enough, Penn State has been one of the most efficient offenses in the country all season long. They rank 6th in adjusted EPA/play, 8th in yards per play, and 2nd in overall offensive down to down success rate. That should prove to be enough to overcome Notre Dame's tough defense.
The Fighting Irish likely hold this to a low point total overall, but won't get things going on offense against a Nittany Lions defense that can completely destroy passing attacks via their edge rusher tandem of Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton. The linebacker play of Penn State should be able to contain Irish running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price too.
Texas vs Ohio State Semifinal
Ohio State and Texas might have the best two rosters in the entire College Football Playoff facing off in this hypothetical Cotton Bowl semifinal matchup (Jan. 10, 7:30pm ET).
The Buckeyes have elite playmakers like wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, plus the Rimington Award winner Seth McLaughlin at center. Then on defense they have a ferocious front with defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, and edge rushers Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau to go along with the best safety in the country, Caleb Downs.
The Longhorns have a stud safety tandem of their own with Michael Taaffe and Andrew Mukuba. Jahdae Barron has been a turnover machine at cornerback. Their defensive front seven might be a bit younger thanks to the emergence of former freshman All-American linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and true freshman phenom edge rusher Colin Simmons, but they're tough too. On offense, their speed at skill positions is deadly.
In the end, Ohio State's more balanced offensive success rates through the air and on the ground likely give them a slight edge as they would be favored by just a hair more than a field goal in this potential semifinal matchup.
Ohio State vs Penn State Championship
Another Big Ten rematch. Another sign that the Big Ten should be crowned king of the football conferences this season.
The last time these two teams played it finished with a close 20-13 victory in favor of the Ohio State Buckeyes back in early November. However, that score doesn't tell the full or most accurate story of how that game truly played out.
Ohio State quarterback Will Howard made one of his worst decisions of the season early on, throwing a pick-six to Zion Tracy which gave Penn State an early lead. Even though it seemed Penn State might gain some momentum after that early interception for a touchdown it was all Ohio State Buckeyes from that point on.
Penn State never scored an offensive touchdown, only reaching Ohio State's side of the field three times after that pick-six occurred. Yes, they drove deep into the red zone once, only to have Drew Allar throw an interception, but that was a rare occasion.
Ohio State's depth of talent, edges at most every position–with the exception of their offensive tackles against Penn State's pass rush–should be enough to give them a slight advantage here in this potential championship matchup as Ryan Day finally wins the big one. Meanwhile, James Franklin continues to just come up short against the most elite teams in the game.
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