Matt Rhule emerges as favorite to replace James Franklin, and his deep ties to Penn State make him the perfect fit
Here’s why Rhule’s Penn State roots and history of program turnarounds make him the clear frontrunner.
Just days after Penn State parted ways with James Franklin, the race to lead one of college football’s most storied programs is already taking shape — and one name has quickly risen above the rest.
According to prediction market Kalshi, Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next head coach at Penn State. As of Saturday morning, Kalshi’s market listed Rhule with a 35% probability, far ahead of other top candidates like Lane Kiffin (14%), Joe Brady (14%), Kalen DeBoer (11%), and Mike Elko (8%).
Rhule’s longstanding connection to Penn State
The surge in Rhule’s odds comes amid growing speculation that the Penn State alum — and former walk-on linebacker — could be nearing a homecoming two decades in the making. Rhule, now 50 years old, began his coaching career as a volunteer assistant at Penn State in 1998 and met his wife, Julie, on campus. His deep ties to the university have fueled talk that this could be more than just a market-driven rumor.
The connection runs even deeper administratively. Current Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft hired Rhule at Temple more than a decade ago, where Rhule orchestrated one of college football’s most dramatic rebuilds — transforming a 2–10 team into a 10–4 contender within three years. He later repeated the feat at Baylor, guiding the Bears from 1–11 to 11–3 and a Sugar Bowl berth before jumping to the NFL.
Now at Nebraska, Rhule has the Cornhuskers trending upward. His 17–15 record over three seasons doesn’t tell the full story — Nebraska has shown steady year-over-year improvement, and his culture-first approach has restored competitiveness to a program that had languished in mediocrity.
Still, the lure of home — and a Big Ten blueblood with playoff ambitions — might be hard to ignore. Penn State’s opening has quickly become the most coveted job in college football, with national interest and NIL infrastructure rivaling any program in the country.
If Kalshi’s projections are right, Penn State’s coaching search may already be nearing its end.
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