12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions for Week 8 comes down to a third matchup between rivals

The first ever 12-Team College Football Playoff is closing in as we've officially passed the midway point of the regular season. True contenders are emerging. Others are fading fast. Which teams will actually make it into this first ever 12-team playoff?In case you missed our prior installments of this Playoff Bracket Predictions series at A […]

Travis May — College Football Managing Editor
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Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel and Oregon Ducks running back Jordan James celebrate a touchdown by Gabriel as the No. 3 Oregon Ducks host the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore.
© Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first ever 12-Team College Football Playoff is closing in as we've officially passed the midway point of the regular season. True contenders are emerging. Others are fading fast. Which teams will actually make it into this first ever 12-team playoff?

In case you missed our prior installments of this Playoff Bracket Predictions series at A to Z Sports, here's a short synopsis on how this column is put together:

Using a mix of current team records, remaining schedules, large sample data projections, and a few other variables we decided at A to Z Sports to build out weekly playoff predictions to help guide us towards this epic inaugural college football tournament.

And in case you missed the detailed breakdowns this off-season, the "5+7" model to this 12-team playoff means that the five highest ranked conference champions and seven more "at-large" bids as voted on by the college playoff committee earn a spot in the tournament field (as you can see in Chris Vannini's post below, sharing details directly from College Football Playoff representation this spring).

Other key things to know about this new game-changing playoff format:

  • The top four seeds receive a first round bye.
  • Seeds 5-8 host first round playoff games at home against seeds 9-12.
  • The bracket will remain in effect throughout the entirety of the playoff, so there's no re-seeding based on early round outcomes.
  • Quarterfinal and Semifinal game locations will be decided in consideration of historic bowl relationships and seeding.
  • If you'd like the full breakdown on the college football playoff bracket you can find that here straight from the source.

With this new format in mind, it's time to share the A to Z Sports Week 8 predictions for the 2024 12-Team College Football Playoff, breaking down every game in each round based on a heavily data-driven projection of the season.

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First Round

Four Conference Champions on Bye

  1. Texas (13-0 SEC Champion)
  2. Oregon (13-0 Big Ten Champion)
  3. Miami (12-1 ACC Champion)
  4. Boise State (12-1 Mountain West Champion)

First Four Matchups

  • #12 Iowa State (11-2 Big 12 Champion) at #5 Ohio State
  • #11 LSU at #6 Georgia
  • #10 Notre Dame at #7 Penn State
  • #9 Clemson at #8 Alabama

First Four Out

  • Texas A&M
  • Tennessee
  • Indiana
  • BYU

Group of 5 Conference Contenders

  • Army
  • Navy
  • Liberty
  • Memphis
  • Tulane
  • UNLV
12-Team Playoff Bracket Predictions heading into Week 8

#12 Iowa State at #5 Ohio State

Ohio State destroys Iowa State by at least three possessions as the talent gap is clearly evident on every snap.

Ohio State may have just lost to Oregon, but many power rating model builds would still have them as a favorite against the Ducks on a neutral field. There's still a path for them to climb back to, not only the the Big Ten Championship, but perhaps the first overall seed. However, with a loss on their record, the path is just more difficult from a probability standpoint. Regardless, as a five seed they would demolish Iowa State or any team that came out of the Big 12 or Group of 5 Conference.

Iowa State has been a fun story this season with quarterback Rocco Becht, their dynamic duo of Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins at wide receiver, and a plucky balanced defense. They're likely going to falter once or twice down the stretch in conference play ahead of any prospective shot at the conference title. Then after that they will face a cruel reality check against any top tier Big Ten or SEC Conference team that comes their way. If it's the Buckeyes, the game would be over as the teams stepped off the bus. The level of athletes and every single meaningful metric across the board for Iowa State simply doesn't compare to a team like Ohio State.

#11 LSU at #6 Georgia

Georgia loses the pass rush battle like they have all year, but find a way to hold on thanks to Carson Beck.

This 2024 Georgia Bulldogs has its imperfections. They rank outside the top ten among SEC teams in pass rush pressures. They have multiple defensive backs who continue to give up too many explosive plays by Georgia's standard. Yet, Carson Beck and the dominant offensive line for the Bulldogs continue to do enough every week, bringing a good amount of explosive plays of their own.

Garrett Nussmeier just put together one of his most important games ever, the wide receivers continue to make plays, and the pass protection is elite every week. However, LSU has still shown entirely too much inconsistency on defense and tend to post spurts where the offense struggles for multiple quarters in a row. If that happens against Georgia they will most certainly lose, and likely will regardless.

#10 Notre Dame at #7 Penn State

James Franklin wins the battle against fellow unproven playoff head coach Marcus Freeman.

Penn State's pass rush is one of the most elite in all of college football. Their time from snap to pressure is among the best in the nation. The run defense is stout. Drew Allar is putting up a top ten quarterback season via most efficiency metrics like adjusted yards per attempt and passer rating. That should be enough to hold a firm edge at home against a more one dimensional Notre Dame team.

Notre Dame has been destroying teams on the ground, but Riley Leonard's passing work has been "problematic" at best. If anything keeps this matchup against Penn State close it will be the emerging defensive front success of the Irish, as they continue to get after the passer and force errors from opposing offenses.

#9 Clemson at #8 Alabama

Clemson's newfound offensive dominance shines in victory.

Clemson got completely destroyed by Georgia in Week 1, but since then they have been an entirely different team. They're averaging over nearly eight yards per play since that game, dominating both on the ground and through the air. Cade Klubnik has done a complete 180-degree turn from last season's performance and is scoring 3.5 touchdowns per game by himself. The elite defensive front combined with offensive efficiency proves too much for the Crimson Tide here.

Alabama went from potential 1-seed to a real threat to miss the College Football Playoff entirely in a matter of two weeks against Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Their inconsistencies have been maddening since the first half of the Georgia game. Their pass rush finally got right last weekend against the Gamecocks, but Jalen Milroe's inconsistencies almost cost them again. That won't cut it against a Clemson team that's been surging, winning easily lately.

Quarterfinals

#1 Texas vs #9 Clemson

Texas leans on their explosive passing attack to handle Clemson's defensive front.

Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning have both played extremely well this season for a variety of reasons. A huge contributing factor has been Steve Sarkisian's scheme. Wide receivers and tight ends are constantly running wide open early in plays, leading to huge explosive plays. Texas has nearly 50 plays of 20+ yards already, quite often offsetting any pressure advantage up front by opposing defenses. Clemson's strengths up front might be neutralized against a team like Texas. Longhorns win via a handful of quick strikes in a game that ends with a rather lopsided score.

#2 Oregon vs #7 Penn State

Oregon beats Penn State for the second time this year.

If the bracket plays out this way Penn State will be traveling across the country to face Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Big Ten teams traveling across multiple time zones are nearly completely defeated this year. The lone exception being Indiana, who beat UCLA soundly. The Ducks struggled early on this year with interior offensive line play, but they've completely flipped the script there. Down to down success rates are through the roof for them since, despite facing tougher opponents. If the Ducks neutralize Penn State's staunch pass rush with their quick passing game and deep shots off play action Oregon might handle the Nittany Lions early.

#3 Miami vs #6 Georgia

Georgia stomps on Miami's hopeful attempt at a return to greatness in the Peach Bowl.

This would be the absolutely worst draw for Miami. As the playoff is currently constructed, the ACC Champion will likely play host at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia. This could be essentially a home game for Georgia despite being the lower seed. The Bulldogs have the talent to likely beat Miami on a neutral field. Add in an environment that will feel more like Athens and things might not be close. Georgia needs to patch up their defensive front (Mykel Williams still not 100%) and the rushing attack needs to run deeper than Travis Etienne, but the Bulldogs should take care of business here. Cameron Ward has posted the number one overall pass efficiency profile in the nation so far, but it hasn't come against teams like Georgia.

#4 Boise State vs #5 Ohio State

Ashton Jeanty almost pulls off a miracle by himself, but Ohio State wins the day.

Ashton Jeanty, the star running back for Boise State is going to win the Heisman Trophy. It's over. No one else should be in the conversation. He's very likely going to crush single season rushing records that have been held by Barry Sanders for 40 years. Jeanty will crush the Buckeyes run defense for close to 200 yards, but the Broncos won't be able to move the ball through the air at all. Ohio State's secondary and victories in the trenches will prove too much for Boise State.

Semifinals

#1 Texas vs #5 Ohio State

Ohio State's strong run game and top five defense does just enough.

Texas and Ohio State might have the two best defenses in all of college football. They both boast one of the most explosive offenses in the nation thanks to elite quarterback to wide receiver connections. Jeremiah Smith, the true freshman phenom wide receiver, will likely make a crazy play or two for Ohio State. Isaiah Bond will connect for a huge touchdown with Quinn Ewers for Texas. The difference will come from the dynamic running back duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Texas on the other hand is still trying to figure out who their lead back is as they've struggled with injuries and inconsistency. This is a close game on paper, but Ohio State gets the edge via talent and advantages in one or two key areas of strength.

#2 Oregon vs #6 Georgia

Oregon's key matchup advantages surprisingly defeat Georgia.

Oregon is looking more and more like the perfect team to beat Georgia. Their emerging elite depth in pass rush with Derrick Harmon, Jordan Burch, and Matayo Uiagalelei fit the profile of teams who have given Georgia fits this year. The speed of their receivers in Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart should win both underneath and over the top against Georgia's inconsistent secondary. Dillon Gabriel's quick processing and release should easily help fend off Georgia's disappointing pass rush so far this year. The Ducks might win by over a score and shock the masses.

Championship

#2 Oregon vs #5 Ohio State

If things shake out this way, Oregon will have defeated Ohio State in Eugene and in the Big Ten Championship game. Beating a team three times in a row is extremely difficult in any sport. Especially when Ohio State likely holds the talent edge with nearly 20 NFL Draft prospects set to go pro next spring. The Buckeyes have the depth of talent and advanced metrics edge to make it this far. If they do, they'll likely be favored to win, and hold out in a close victory, winning the national championship.

First Four Out

In this scenario the "first four out" are Texas A&M, Tennessee, Indiana, and BYU.

  • Texas A&M – The Aggies just keep on winning. Conner Weigman is looking really good again, and the defense is playing like a Mike Elko coached team.
  • Tennessee – The Vols have now lost to Arkansas and nearly shed a game to Florida. Nico Iamaleava is just going through some growing pains in his first year as a full-time starter. They're one or two key outcomes from back in it.
  • Indiana – There's an argument to be made that Kurtis Rourke is a Top 5 QB in the nation based on how he's played so far. No exaggeration, just data. Highest QBR. Highest yards per play. Highest EPA per play. Indiana has been unstoppable.
  • BYU – Their blowout victory over Kansas State is going to need to carry them. The rest of their schedule outside of SMU has been meaningless. If they lose once (let alone twice) it's going to be tough to get into the playoff.

Group of 5 Contenders

There are five key Group of 5 Conference contenders outside of Boise State:

  • Army – Army is annihilating every opponent this year. Their schedule has been soft, but they've coasted to an undefeated record thus far. They can perhaps lose to Notre Dame, but they still need to win the AAC to make the field.
  • Navy – Just like Army, Navy has destroyed their easy opponents, but they also have a meaningful victory over Memphis. Navy is likely better than Army, but they have a couple more significant opportunities to slip up based on their schedule difficulty.
  • Liberty – There's really only one team on Liberty's schedule who could throw a wrench in their playoff hopes. They likely play Sam Houston State twice in a row to end the season. If they're 13-0 they'll be tough to keep out.
  • Memphis – Yes, they lost to Navy in a strangely styled shootout, but the Tigers still have just one loss. If they can sneak their way into the AAC Championship Game the Tigers can make it.
  • Tulane – Tulane has two odd losses, but their quarterback has been Top 5 among the Group of 5 ranks and their defensive metrics are strong. Undefeated in AAC play, Tulane still has strong control of their own destiny.
  • UNLV – They might have lost on a couple controversial calls to Syracuse, but if UNLV wins the Mountain West over likely Heisman Trophy winner Ashton Jeanty with just one loss they might be in.

We'll be back with more College Football Playoff coverage here at A to Z Sports all season long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

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