First Round 2024 NFL Mock Draft after first wave of NFL Free Agency signings features seven wide receivers
The first round of NFL free agency signings are now official. The next big event on the off-season schedule is the NFL Draft. Team needs and draft strategies are starting to truly take shape. It's time for a fresh first round 2024 NFL Mock Draft with all the latest events taken into account. Nearly half […]
The first round of NFL free agency signings are now official. The next big event on the off-season schedule is the NFL Draft. Team needs and draft strategies are starting to truly take shape. It's time for a fresh first round 2024 NFL Mock Draft with all the latest events taken into account.
Nearly half of the selections in this first round NFL mock draft are wide receivers and offensive lineman! Given how shallow the free agent pool was at wide receiver this off-season and how deep this offensive tackle class is, NFL teams will be drafting both positions aggressively.
This mock draft does not include any trades. It does take into account every single signing and trade that's taken place in the first wave of free agency as well as large sample data from over 120 mock drafts in the past month. Let's dive in.
Round 1
1. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB USC
The Bears used Ian Rapoport as their mouthpiece this week to make it sound like there was some sort of doubt as to whether they would be selecting Caleb Williams or not. There's no doubt. They've known for months he was the best quarterback in this class. He's a lock to go first overall to the Bears. In case you haven't seen how insane Caleb Williams' ball placement is, this post below sums it up. He drops the ball right into a bucket to Jordan Addison, over the line backer, between two defenders on the perimeter.
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB LSU
Jayden Daniels finally surpassed Drake Maye in the betting markets to become the odds-on favorite to be selected at pick two in the 2024 NFL Draft. His Heisman-winning season of 40 passing touchdowns with over 1200 rushing yards is pretty tantalizing. The Commanders likely don't pass up a quarterback that just posted perhaps the most efficient quarterback season of all time.
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB North Carolina
Drake Maye is still very much in the mix to be the second quarterback off the board, but if he's available at pick three the Patriots likely grab him here. His 2022 season was one of the best we've ever seen for a college quarterback and he still has all the traits at 6'5" 223 pounds to succeed at the NFL level.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State
Ever since he introduced himself to the college football world with three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl as a true freshman he's been a near lock for first round draft capital. Back to back seasons with 99th percentile production metrics, elite traits, and Hall of Fame pedigree make him the easy selection. The Cardinals did nothing at wide receiver through the first wave of free agency, already knowing this was their first round pick.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Rome Odunze, WR Washington
Now that the Chargers have released Mike Williams and traded away Keenan Allen there is no way they won't be adding a wide receiver at pick five. Rome Odunze led all FBS college football wide receivers last season with over 1600 receiving yards. He is a dominant force off the line at the catch point and is the perfect new alpha wide receiver to connect with Justin Herbert.
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR LSU
The Giants have already spent most of their cap room in free agency without doing a thing to fix their wide receiver room. There's no way they don't add an elite receiver here. The Giants have a type when it comes to acquiring speed, and Malik Nabers has lots of it. He scored nine of his touchdowns on targets more than 25 yards downfield last year. A deep threat with skills to win at all levels of the field.
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7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame
The Titans spent good money improving the interior of their offensive line and on Calvin Ridley as their new lead wide receiver. Adding the best offensive tackle in a stacked class would be a great way to continue building around their young quarterback, Will Levis.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama
After signing Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney their first round pick is all but locked up at this point. Dallas Turner dominated the NFL Combine with a 99th percentile A to Z Athletic Composite Score, reminding everyone why he's the best edge defender in this draft class. He's the perfect blend of youth, athleticism, upside, and proven production (with an elite pass rush pressure rate too). This play below sums up Turner's play perfectly. Speed, strength, flexibility, and finish.
9. Chicago Bears: JC Latham, OT Alabama
Now that the Bears have acquired Keenan Allen, the last big offensive piece to add is an offensive tackle. Darnell Wright could move to left tackle where he played over 1000 snaps at Tennessee. JC Latham's mauling style can handle the right tackle spot.
10. New York Jets: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT Penn State
"Oh, no! He has small hands!" Don't let ramblings from the NFL Combine steer you away from the fact that Fashanu is one of the most dominant offensive tackles in this class. The Jets did acquire Morgan Moses via trade, which should help patch up their right side. Fashanu would anchor the left.
11. Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan
The Vikings did sign Sam Darnold as some "if we can't get our guy" insurance, but that won't stop them from selecting J.J. McCarthy here at pick 11. Some believe they may even trade up from the 11 spot just to make sure they get their target. McCarthy has been the favorite to land with the Vikings for a month now.
12. Denver Broncos: Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo
The best cornerback in the class. Quinyon Mitchell dominated at Toledo, allowing below a sub-50 NFL passer rating over the last two years and snagging six picks. Then he obliterated his competition all week long at the Senior Bowl. And just for good measure he posted the highest Athletic Composite Score of any cornerback at the NFL Combine.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State
The Raiders have yet to address their right tackle position, which means this pick will likely be one of the top maulers here at 13. Taliese Fuaga's schematic versatility and aggressive play style fit the Raiders perfectly. When I spoke with Tom Telesco at the NFL Combine he alluded to the need at offensive line and the experienced depth this class possessed.
14. New Orleans Saints: Byron Murphy, DL Texas
This is the absolute chalk pick for the Saints. They did virtually nothing in the first wave of free agency because their cap situation is still catastrophic. But even so, their roster isn't too terrible. However, the one weakness on their defense is obviously on their interior defensive front. Murphy had the highest pass rush pressure rate in the nation last year among interior defensive line players (over 16%). No way he should drop past the Saints.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU
The Colts did just re-sign Michael Pittman Jr., and Josh Downs was promising as a rookie. But adding Brian Thomas Jr. would give Anthony Richardson one of the best young trios at wide receiver in the entire league. Thomas scored 17 touchdowns (most in FBS) last season and tested as a 97th percentile athlete at the NFL Combine. Elite production profile prospects with freaky measurables do not drop beyond the mid point of round one. Receivers his size shouldn't be able to move like this:
16. Seattle Seahawks: Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State
Jared Verse is a great story. Transferred up from University of Albany then posted back to back top tier seasons at edge rusher for Florida State. Nine sacks in his final six games last fall. He also tested as a 92nd percentile athlete at the NFL Combine. Seahawks did re-sign Darrell Taylor, but they could still use some help at edge.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama
After losing their best cornerback (Darious Williams) and wide receiver (Calvin Ridley) to free agency this pick is likely one of those two positions. Terrion Arnold offers the most balanced skill set and best instincts of any cornerback in the class. Only other direction I could see the Jaguars going would be Xavier Worthy, WR Texas here.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Brock Bowers, TE Georgia
The Bengals did add Mike Gesicki to a cheap one-year contract and Drew Sample for another three years (for some strange reason). However, both deals were super low commitment and neither tight end is special at all. Bowers would create a unique 11 and 12 personnel hybrid wide receiver and tight end role for the Bengals that would be tough to play against immediately. As I outlined last week, he has one of the best production profiles ever and won the John Mackey Award twice for being the best tight end in college football.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Troy Fautanu, OT Washington
The Rams are a team that could go several directions as they don't have many glaring needs. They brought in great corners and guards in free agency already. Adding Troy Fautanu to replace former undrafted free agent tackle, Alaric Jackson, seems like the best move. Fautanu only had one game in the last two seasons where he allowed more than two pass rush pressures. Incredibly consistent offensive line talent. Plus he embarrasses pass rushers with subtle techniques like this in the post below:
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Xavier Worthy, WR Texas
After the Steelers threw Diontae Johnson out the door this week via trade to the Carolina Panthers and released Allen Robinson it became abundantly clear that the Steelers desperately need wide receiver help. Pairing Xavier Worthy's speed with George Pickens elite size and physicality would be unfair to opposing defenses.
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21. Miami Dolphins: Amarius Mims, OT Georgia
The Dolphins already addressed their center position via free agency signing Aaron Brewer. Their other weak spot on the offensive line last year was at right tackle. Austin Jackson is on the books for a few more years, but his contract is easy to part ways with after the 2024 season. Amarius Mims is a monster of a man at 6'8", 340 pounds and would likely immediately be an upgrade.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C Oregon
If Jackson Powers-Johnson makes it to the Eagles there's almost no way he isn't the pick. After losing future Hall of Famer Jason Kelce to retirement and not addressing the position in the first wave of free agency this would be a lock. If they miss on JPJ there are a couple other solid options in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but he is special. By all the meaningful metrics Oregon's offensive line was the best last year and Powers-Johnson was the reason. Here's what he told me at the NFL Combine about what made the Oregon line so good:
23. Minnesota Vikings (via HOU/CLE): Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton, DL Illinois
The Vikings seem like they're gearing up to make a trade in the early first round with their move into this pick slot with Houston. But if they do keep the pick here the Texans could certainly go with Johnny Newton. They already let go of Dean Lowry who was awful last year and brought in Jerry Tillery. Good swap. However, their defensive front is still full of replacement level players outside of Harrison Phillips. Newton would immediately turn their defensive line into a disruptive force.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa
If Cooper DeJean were healthy for the NFL Draft process he would not drop this far. The Cowboys acted like they forgot free agency started this week, so they still have a need at corner depth with a possibility for safety help as well. DeJean can play both corner and safety, giving the Cowboys flexibility in nickel and dime packages right away. Plus he's an amazing return weapon. Some may want an offensive tackle here, which seems like the only other option.
25. Green Bay Packers: Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma
The Packers need to make sure their offensive line play doesn't drop off post-David Bakhtiari. Tyler Guyton could immediately plug in at either tackle spot. When I talked to several defensive line and edge players at the Combine it was Guyton mentioned first when asked about speed and athleticism at the tackle position in this draft class.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA
After the Buccaneers announced that they were releasing Shaq Barrett it was clear that edge defender was going to be their biggest need this off-season. So far they haven't addressed the position via free agency. They might as well draft Laiatu Latu, who had the highest pressure rate among all edge rushers in this class last fall. Plus, as you can see in my post below, he loves him some Joe Tryon. The two played together when Latu was still at Washington years ago and are friends to this day.
27. Arizona Cardinals (via HOU): Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson
Nate Wiggins was the fastest cornerback at the NFL combine and brings great length to win against receivers of any size despite his slight build. The Cardinals did just bring in Sean Murphy-Bunting, but cornerback is still perhaps their worst position group. Wiggins would help remedy that quickly.
28. Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas
The Bills aren't going to walk into the 2024 season with Curtis Samuel (newly signed), Mack Hollins (newly signed), and Khalil Shakir as the only game day active receivers besides Stefon Diggs. Adonai Mitchell is the big-bodied special athlete they've been looking for who can stretch the field and win on contested catches with consistency. Mitchell posted a 99th percentile Athletic Composite Score at the NFL Combine and has been rising up mock draft boards ever since.
29. Detroit Lions: Darius Robinson, DL Missouri
After some key re-signings on the interior offensive line and a few great moves to improve at cornerback the Lions can go just about any direction with their first selection. However, even after adding D.J. Reader on a two-year deal their defensive line could use some help. Darius Robinson offers schematic flexibility, playing both edge defender and interior defensive line at Missouri. He also posted elite pressure rate numbers for a guy weighing nearly 300 pounds last fall.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State
The Ravens don't have many areas of need, but after letting both Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy walk via free agency (as of this writing), then releasing Tyus Bowser, their edge defender group is shallow. After Chop Robinson ran a 4.48-second forty yard dash at 254 pounds at the NFL Combine his hype train was restored. He didn't have many sacks in at Penn State, but neither did Odafe Oweh who is now slated to start at edge for Baltimore this year.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama
The 49ers get to select the best player available here at pick 31. Kool-Aid McKinstry defended 16 passes in 2022, which led opposing offenses to just completely stop targeting him in 2023. He's not the most elite athlete at the position, but the production and shut down physical coverage is undeniable. The 49ers' top three corners are nearing the end of their contracts and the team formally met with McKinstry at the NFL Combine. This seems like a probable match if he's available in late round one.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Troy Franklin, WR Oregon
Troy Franklin and the Chiefs are a perfect fit. The Chiefs just let go of their deep speed wide receiver in Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And while they did just add Marquise Brown for some speed, he's missed eight games in the last two seasons and is far from an elite difference maker. Franklin ran a 4.41-second forty at the NFL Combine and registered multiple plays above 22 miles per hour on the field last year via on-field spatial tracking sources. Franklin could immediately make splash plays when paired up with Patrick Mahomes while also bringing down to down consistency in the intermediate passing game.
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And that's all for now, folks! Be on the lookout for more NFL Draft content all spring long here at A to Z Sports! Make sure you're following us on X (Twitter) @AtoZSportsNFL for the latest news from around the league. And if you want to tell me how wrong I am about your team's pick in this mock draft you can find me @FF_TravisM!
