TNF Preview: A lot at stake for the Bills and Texans | A to Z Sports All-NFL newsletter

Our A to Z Sports NFL newsletter for November 20, 2025.

Adam Zientek — NFL News Writer

Nov 20, 2025 12:36 PM EST

The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are set for action in a thrilling showdown on “Thursday Night Football.”

There’s plenty at stake for both teams, who are looking to make a playoff push late into the season. Buffalo enters the contest as a 5.5-point favorite after a thrilling shootout victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11. For the Texans, they’re looking to stack wins with the backup quarterback Davis Mills forced to once again take over signal-caller duties with C.J. Stroud still in the concussion protocol.

Let’s take a look at the biggest storylines heading into the matchup.

Josh Allen hasn’t played well in Houston

The only time that quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills have beaten Houston is in 2021 when the Texans visited Orchard Park, New York. In the three other games played in Houston, Buffalo has never won. In fact, Allen had one of his worst games as a professional in the 2024 season, accounting for just 131 yards and having three straight incompletions on Buffalo’s last possession to give Houston the 23-20 victory.

The reigning MVP opened up about the poor performance last season and what he hopes to accomplish in the upcoming matchup.

“I got beat up that game. Didn’t play well at all. Watching that film, there’s a lot of good stuff to watch from that film but it’s hard to watch,” Allen said. “I played pretty badly. So yeah, hopefully we can go out there and play a little bit better and move the ball a little better.”

In four games against Houston, including the playoffs, Allen is averaging 51.2 percent completion percentage with 181 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. He’ll need to put on his Superman cape once again if Buffalo hopes to walk into Houston and leave with a win. It’ll be a bit of uphill sledding for Buffalo, which is down wide receivers Mecole Hardman and Curtis Samuel, along with Allen’s top weapon in tight end Dalton Kincaid.

For Buffalo, defense is going to be the name of the game, especially the run defense. Buffalo is one of the worst in the league in terms of defending the run, and allowed 202 rushing yards in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While Allen will most likely have to put the team on his back, the defense will also need to step up to relieve some pressure off the reigning MVP. The Texans have a middling run game, which could give the viewers a better look at exactly where the run defense ranks when kickoff begins.

Houston’s defense is legitimate

As we had mentioned, Houston gave Allen fits in the last contest and is returning pretty much the same team, if not a little bit better. The Houston defense is allowing the fewest yards (258.1) and fewest points (16.3) in the NFL, according to Fox Sports. They are also No. 3 in passing (171 yards), No. 3 in rushing (87.1 yards), and is tied at No. 5 with 16 takeaways on the season.

The Texans are more than capable of making this a close game with a home contest and a stout defense to boot. What’s even more impressive, despite the slow start for Houston, is that their 16.3 points allowed is the fewest through 10 games by a team without a winning record in over 20 years. In seven of the 10 games this season, Houston has allowed fewer than 20 points.

One way to counter Houston’s defense is to have good, sound, complementary football for Buffalo. While Allen will need to most likely put on his Superman cape, it’ll also be imperative for Buffalo to use the clock to their advantage and get running back James Cook going early and often in the matchup.

Playoff implications for both teams

Yes, we’re talking playoffs. Both teams have a lot to gain with a win on Thursday. For Buffalo, a victory would give them a 97% chance of making the playoffs, with a loss that would drop down to 83.1%.

For Houston, they are in a position where they almost need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. If the Texans pull out a victory, the chances of making the postseason rise to 33.3%, but a loss crashes that probability down to 12.2%.

Final score predictions

As CBS Sports reported, the Bills are 2-2 in prime time this season and have lost both of their last two night games, while the Texans have lost both of their prime-time matchups in the 2025 season.

While Houston’s defense is legit, Allen is even more impressive. After a poor performance last season, expect the Bills’ offense to once again put on a show. If the team were able to hang 30+ points on the best defense in football, a lot more people would be talking about Buffalo once again being a Super Bowl contender after the matchup. Regardless of whether it’s by 20 points or one, Buffalo is going to win the matchup.

Houston will keep things close until the fourth quarter, when Allen puts on his MVP magic to lead the team to victory. After the 2024 loss, where Allen had three straight incompletions to end the game, he righted some wrongs on a stellar game-winning drive.

Buffalo 27, Houston 20