4 boring but accurate predictions about the Buffalo Bills’ upcoming free agency
The NFL free agency period is about to begin.
It’s the most wonderful time of year for NFL folks, it’s the free agency period. This time of year, everyone wants to talk about mock drafts, wild free agency additions, and the latest bold trade idea brought up by any analyst on TV regarding their favorite team. What about the actual things that are going to take place for the organizations? Some fans just want to be as prepared as possible. For that, I have Bills fans covered with five boring but accurate predictions ahead of free agency.
*Important note: Accurate may be an overstatement, as I am not sure what will or won’t happen, but these are things that I can easily see the Bills pulling off in the infancy stages of free agency
1. The Bills will not be bringing back OL David Edwards
With the news breaking that the team would be bringing back OL Connor McGovern, it’s safe to say that David Edwards’ time with the team has officially come to an end.
McGovern’s extension was a surprising one, to say the least, after it was reported that he or the team hadn’t communicated with one another since the exit interviews after the loss to the Denver Broncos. It was all but guaranteed he wouldn’t be back until it wasn’t.
Buffalo locked in their starting center for at least the next four years with the decision, and with not a lot of cap space left to work with and a serviceable offensive lineman already on the team in Alec Anderson, we could see Buffalo moving away from Edwards this postseason.
2. There will be no reunion for Buffalo, at least for WR or LB
Buffalo needs some more help at linebacker and wide receiver. For linebacker, the team is going to be losing one or both of Matt Milano and Shaq Thompson, leaving a gaping hole in the defense for new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard.
With that, Buffalo might be inclined to look to the Chicago Bears once more to try to bring back former Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds’ age is enticing, but I just can’t see the Bills going back to the well and giving Edmunds another shot.
While the team looked to Chicago for the biggest trade of the free agency so far, bringing in wide receiver DJ Moore, Buffalo still isn’t done adding to the receiver room. One boring but fair prediction is that Buffalo is not and should not be looking to former New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
He had recently been released by New England, but I can’t see Buffalo wanting another run at a Super Bowl with Diggs in a Bills uniform.
3. Restructures, restructures, and more restructures
The Bills are currently sitting at the bottom of the league in terms of available cap space, according to Over The Cap. With negative $12.9 million to play with, the team needs to get cap compliant and fast. Luckily, there are a few restructuring candidates on the roster that could make life much easier for Buffalo to navigate this difficult financial situation it finds itself in.
Buffalo could clear up around $30 million in extra cap space by restructuring both quarterback Josh Allen and offensive lineman Dion Dawkins contracts. For Allen, it would free up around $12.5 million, and for Dawkins, it would be about $11.3 million.
Outside of restructures, the team could also be looking at extension candidates, including tight end Dawson Knox. Knox has a massive cap hit of around $18 million, so an extension would free up an additional $8.2 million in cap space, potentially.
Those three moves alone wouldn’t only get Buffalo cap compliant, it would also allow them to sign a few deals along the way as well. Brandon Beane has his work cut out for him.
4. Buffalo isn’t done adding help for quarterback Josh Allen
While the Bills might not be bringing back a familiar face in Diggs to help bolster the offense, and even after the trade for DJ Moore, Buffalo isn’t done adding help for quarterback Josh Allen. I think that the Bills bring in another receiver or two through free agency to help lift that entire room.
The name that comes to mind is that of Darnell Mooney. He’s a cheaper option for Buffalo, and while his ceiling may be more of a No. 2 guy, falling more in line with a No. 3 receiver, there’s still plenty of gas left in the tank for the talented pass catcher.
Mooney recently hit the market as a cap cut from the Atlanta Falcons and has had at least 400 receiving yards in his first six seasons. 2025 was a steep dropoff to 443 receiving yards and a touchdown after having 992 yards and five touchdowns the year before, but pairing him with Allen and this version of the Bills offense could be exactly what the doctor ordered.
Free agency is always filled with dreams of blockbuster signings and splashy trades, but the reality for most teams is far more calculated than that. For the Bills, this offseason will be less about headline-grabbing moves and more about smart roster management.
Restructures and extensions will create the flexibility they need, a few value additions will round out the roster, and Allen will continue to get the support he needs on offense. IT may not be the flashiest path through free agency, but it’s the kind of approach that keeps Buffalo firmly in the Super Bowl conversation.
Sometimes the boring moves are the ones that matter most.
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