Bills’ playoff ceiling may hinge on one missing piece — and the numbers tell a brutal story in January if he’s out again

Dalton Kincaid is a difference-maker when he’s on the football field.

Adam Zientek — NFL News Writer

Dec 31, 2025 1:10 PM EST

The Buffalo Bills have a superstar in tight end Dalton Kincaid. He’s broken out in a big way for Buffalo in 2025, becoming one of the most reliable and efficient targets that quarterback Josh Allen has.

The only issue has been his inability to stay healthy. The talented tight end has struggled to stay on the field, whether it’s with a nagging knee injury or something else popping up. With the playoffs looming, Buffalo will need a fully healthy Kincaid if it wants to have success on offense.

It was evident in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles that the offense was lacking a big-time player. Yes, Brandin Cooks had over 100 yards receiving on a couple of prayer balls, and Tyrell Shavers had a monster catch. The “everyone eats” offense was barely holding on in the loss. Buffalo just couldn’t get anything going for about 90% of the contest, and Kincaid’s absence could be felt.

Dalton Kincaid is a gamebreaker for Buffalo

Based on Sumer Sports AI, the data points to an absolute unit on the football field. With Kincaid on the field, the team is scoring 30.1 points per game and has 6.1 yards per play. Without Kincaid, the team is averaging only 23 points per game and 5.4 yards per play. Not only that, but in games where Kincaid has been healthy, the team is 9-2, but when he’s unavailable, they’re 2-3.

In terms of offensive efficiency, it’s even more glaring. When Kincaid is active, the team has a 0.166 EPA per play and a 49% success rate. Without him, the team has a -0.011 per play and a 42.5% success rate. When he’s on the field, good things happen.

In the passing game alone, Allen completes passes at a higher percentage when Kincaid is available, 71.1% compared to 64.9% when he’s off the field. The Bills have a higher passing yards per game (235.2), yards per attempt (8.1), and passing touchdowns per game (1.7) when Kincaid can play. When he’s not on the field, all three metrics drop with a 64.9% completion percentage, 227 passing yards per game, 7.7 yards per attempt, and 1.2 passing touchdowns per game.

What makes Kincaid so elite is that even in the running game, having him on the field is beneficial. The team is averaging 160 yards with five yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns per game with him healthy. When he’s inactive, the team only manages 148.6 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, and 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game.

The only area that Kincaid might “hurt” the team is in the red zone, and it’s barely anything noticeable. With him active, the team has a 22.1% red-zone touchdown rate; without him, 22.5%. He makes up for it in the work on third downs, though. Buffalo has a 46.6% third-down success rate with him on the field and a 40.9% when he’s off.

What does all that mean for Dalton Kincaid?

With all that data, your eyes can get a little blurry when looking at it, so I’ll help break down exactly what it all means when Kincaid is active.

• Win percentage doubles (81.8% vs 40%)
• EPA per play increases significantly (0.166 vs -0.011)
• Yards per play increase (6.08 vs 5.42)
• Overall success rate improves (49% vs 42.5%)
• Passing completion percentage increases (71.1% vs 64.9%)
• Third down conversion rate improves (46.6% vs 40.9%)

Bottom line: the Bills are a different team with Kincaid on the field, and the numbers make that impossible to ignore. If Buffalo wants to make a deep playoff run, having Kincaid healthy in January isn’t optional; it’s essential.

Buffalo Bills News

Sean McDermott shares an unsettling injury update involving key Bills players with the postseason nearing

Not the update fans were hoping for from Sean McDermott.

Adam Zientek