ESPN predicts the likeliest third round selections for the Chicago Bears in the 2024 NFL Draft

The 2024 NFL Draft is now less than a week away from kicking off with the Chicago Bears making one of their four total selections in the draft with the first overall pick. The Bears are expected to take quarterback Caleb Williams with the top pick in the draft and the team's decision with the […]

Kole Noble Chicago Bears News Writer
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Defensive end Adisa Isaac talks with reporters during Penn State's Pro Day in Holuba Hall on March 15, 2024, in State College.
Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

The 2024 NFL Draft is now less than a week away from kicking off with the Chicago Bears making one of their four total selections in the draft with the first overall pick.

The Bears are expected to take quarterback Caleb Williams with the top pick in the draft and the team's decision with the ninth overall pick is still anyone's guess. After the first round, the Bears won't pick again until the 75th overall pick in the third round.

That selection could be an easy trade down opportunity for the Bears but if the team sticks with the pick, which prospects could the team look into? We now might have an idea using ESPN Analytics' new "Draft Predictor" tool.

Here's ESPN's explanation of the analytics behind the "Draft Predictor" tool. 

“The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc, expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.”

Using this tool, let's see which prospects the Bears are likely to pick at 75. Below are the top six players in terms of probability. Each of these six prospects have less than a 5% likelihood, so anything could happen.

1. DE Adisa Isaac, Penn State

Penn State defensive end Adisa Isaac (20) enters the field with the rest of the defensive unit for team warmups before an NCAA football game against Indiana Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023, in State College, Pa. The Nittany Lions won, 33-24.
Adisa Isaac (20) enters the field with the rest of the defensive unit.Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

This would absolutely be a slam dunk pick for the Bears in the third round if the team neglects to draft a defensive end with the ninth overall pick. Adisa Isaac has the highest likelihood to be selected with the Bears third round pick and is a phenomenal pass rusher. Honestly him being on the board at 75 would be a major surprise to me.

According to our very own James Foster's prospect ranking big board, Isaac is listed as the 12th ranked defensive end and 66th prospect on consensus rankings. The Athletic's Dane Brugler listed Isaac as his 7th ranked edge rusher and gave him a second/third round projection as his 65th ranked overall prospect.

Isaac recorded 7.5 sacks during his final season at Penn State, including 16.0 tackles for a loss. With his length and athleticism being his strengths, head coach Matt Eberflus and defensive coordinator Eric Washington can turn him into a real weapon.


2. DT Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State

Nov 4, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. (51) takes the field for warm-ups prior to the NCAA football game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Michael Hall Jr. (51) takes the field for warm-ups prior to the NCAA football game against Rutgers.© Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

If the Bears get a pass rusher in the first round or just completely pivot on the position, the team could still look to address the defensive line in the third round at another position. The player with the second highest likelihood to go to the Bears with the 75th overall pick is defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr.

Hall is the fourth ranked defensive tackle and 64th overall prospect on Foster's big board. Brugler has Hall ranked as his fifth defensive tackle and 60th overall prospect giving him a second/third round grade.

During his final season at Ohio State, Hall saw a dip on the stat sheet but according to Brugler's scouting report, "his pass rush win rate (18.3 percent) was second best among FBS defensive tackles in 2023 (behind only Byron Murphy II)." Hall would be a great fit to develop at the position alongside Gervon Dexter Sr. and Zacch Pickens.


3. DT Maason Smith, LSU

Sep 4, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Louisiana State Tigers defensive tackle Maason Smith (0) celebrates a play during the first half against the Florida State Seminoles at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Maason Smith (0) celebrates a play during the first half against the Florida State Seminoles.Image via Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

A defensive tackle more likely in the Bears' range in the third round with the third highest probability of being the team's pick is LSU's Maason Smith.

Smith is Foster's sixth ranked player at the position and came in at 92nd on the big board. Per Brugler's rankings, Smith is also his sixth ranked defensive tackle and 64th overall prospect with again a second/third round grade.

Smith's final season at LSU was headlined by his 2.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for a loss while holding down the interior of the defensive line. He primarily had experience at three-technique but also played nose tackle and the five-technique. His versatility on the interior would be a coveted attribute for Eberflus and Washington's unit.


4. DT Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson

Nov 4, 2023; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro (33) celebrates after a tackle against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium.
Ruke Orhorhoro (33) celebrates after a tackle against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

This is starting to become a common trend for the Bears' third round options with a third defensive tackle being among the fourth highest ranked prospects in terms of likelihood. Ruke Orhorhoro out of Clemson is another one joining the list the Bears could look to add to the interior of the defensive line in the third round.

Foster has Orhorhoro listed as his seventh ranked defensive tackle and 69th ranked overall prospect. Brugler was slightly higher on Orhorhoro as a prospect listing him as his fourth ranked defensive tackle and 51st overall prospect. ESPN's tool gave Orhorhoro less than a 50 percent chance of being available for the Bears.

Orhorhoro had 9.0 sacks over his final two seasons at Clemson and his production speaks for itself. His ability to play in multiple schemes on the inside and outside is incredibly desirable although the Bears would likely keep him in the three-technique.


5. WR Devontez Walker, North Carolina

Oct 28, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels wide receiver Devontez Walker (9) catches a pass against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the second half at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field.
Devontez Walker (9) catches a pass against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Finally the tool offers some diversity for the Bears with an offensive prospect having the fifth-highest likelihood to be the Bears pick in the third round. UNC wide receiver Devontez Walker could be a target for the Bears if the team misses out on some of the top wide receivers in the class and would still be a considerable upgrade to the room.

Walker is Foster's 20th ranked wide receiver on his big board and Brugler's 16th ranked wide receiver. While that seems low, it's entirely possible we see that many wide receivers come off the board by the time the Bears pick in the third round.

Walker recorded 699 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in his final season after racking up 921 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns the year prior. Walker exclusively lined up as the right outside receiver for the Tarheels, which would be his ideal spot in Chicago with DJ Moore on the left side and Keenan Allen in the slot on offense.


6. DT T'Vondre Sweat, Texas

Texas Longhorns defensive lineman T'Vondre Sweat (93) directs the defense during the game against Texas Christian University at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023 in Fort Worth, Texas.
T’Vondre Sweat (93) directs the defense during the game against Texas Christian University.Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

The final player with a high likelihood of landing with the Bears in the third round is another defensive tackle in Texas' T'Vondre Sweat.

Sweat's size and frame were major talking points heading into the Combine and unfortunately the conversation around his name changed after he was arrested for a DWI earlier this month. He was originally Foster's 13th ranked defensive tackle and Brugler's 10th ranked defensive tackle in the class.

On the field, Sweat was tremendous for the Longhorns. He was named an unanimous All-American, won the Outland Trophy award, and was named Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year following his two sack season in 2023. However, there's a lot of off the field concerns attached to his name that would be hard for the Bears to overlook.